Is Ron Pauls campaign over if he disappoints in Iowa?

[Renew Deal]

Ron Paul was polling at either 1st or 2nd place in Iowa. Now the latest polls show him trending down to 3rd or worse. Iowa is unforgiving to candidates who are trending down because unviable caucusers must switch to other candidates.

But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent. “Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/101414463

I think a disappointing showing for Ron Paul is likely. He is also not looking good in any other early states. Is Ron Pauls campaign effectively over this week?

[rurallib]

1. I believe he will run 3rd party

So no, methinks he will be around for a while.
at 70++ this is probably his last shot to turn America into the capitalist country of his wet dreams.

[cyberswede]

4. Hmmm

I wonder...I sort of feel that if he were willing to run 3rd party, he would have done so already. I'm not sure he's willing to be a spoiler for the repub candidate. Though I suppose he might think he can get some disaffected dems to vote for him...

Happy New Year, rurallib!

[MoonRiver]

16. He has stated many times he won't do that.

He's also planning to retire from the House this term, whether he were to win the nom or not.

[SixthSense]

2. They're going to cheat him out

Not a coincidence that the vote counting was moved to an "undisclosed location" - where it cannot be observed for integrity - the day after Paul posted his first competitive poll result. This is an excellent object lesson, where you get to see what happens in an election of the peoples' choice is not an elite-approved choice.

[Renew Deal]

9. How can they "cheat him out of the vote" when all the voters are standing in the same room

facing each other?

[SixthSense]

14. That's not how it goes

The voters will be widely disbursed, geographically (there are 1800+ precincts which each vote individually). Their results are reported to the party committee, which tabulates and reports the results.

By hiding the process of tabulation they introduce the opportunity to change the vote to whatever they want - which, with 1800 groups scattered throughout the state, can't be confirmed and verified by anybody else under these new conditions.

[opihimoimoi]

3. The Dude is a GOPer and looks like shit,,,,ideas outta sight and moot....small level stuffs...he

will lose his ass....if not in IOwa...elsewhere

[baldguy]

5. Paul's campaign is never over. He makes too much money off of that gimmick.

[Renew Deal]

10. Good point

[izquierdista]

6. Is it ever over?

Haven't you been paying attention the last couple elections? He keeps coming back like a bad bowl of chili.

[customerserviceguy]

7. The Paulbots will be there forever

Just like they were four years ago. No matter what happens in Iowa, he'll always attract a 10-15% fringe in the caucuses and primaries, then he'll hopefully play spoiler with a third party.

Since he has zero chance of winning (like Perot) he'll be a safe "none of the above" for people living in either solidly blue or red states. He could wind up with 20% or so of the vote nationwide, but won't even come close to winning the electoral votes of even a single state.

[SteppingRazor]

8. To which polls are you referring?

Every recent poll I've seen has Paul in second place, a few points below Romney. Here's a list of the most-recent:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

So, no, I don't think his campaign is over this week. If he doesn't outright win in Iowa, though, it's over anyway, it's just a question of when. Even if he wins Iowa, he'd need that win to cause a huge swing in New Hampshire. Huntsman's doing well there, so maybe an Iowa win can raise Paul up enough that the libertarians of the Live Free or Die state can get him a win over a Huntsman-weakened Romney. Without those back-to-back, though, he's screwed.

The weirdest outcome would be Paul wins in Iowa and NH, then on to South Carolina, where Gingrich is way out ahead of Romney and Paul polls single digits. Gingrich wins there and in Florida and next thing you know, we've been through four primaries and Romney hasn't won one.

[Renew Deal]

11. Did you read what I posted?

"If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent. “Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer."

[SteppingRazor]

15. But that's not a poll, that's two days of a four-day poll.

Santorum still came in at 15 points in that poll, to Paul's 22 and Romney's 24.

[bowens43]

12. his campaign was over before it started.

The guy is a total nut job.

[Autumn]

13. His campaign was over before he started it

He's just pissing away money. He's going nowhere fast.

[Robb]

17. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!?

Hell, LaRouche did time and we still have to endure his albeit slowed antics.

[themaguffin]

18. No, because he's not running to win (or it doesn't matter anyway) as Paul is

pushing his extreme no gov't agenda.

He has supporters etc. He won't quit like that. that's not his purpose in all of this.

[Renew Deal]

19. I'm not saying he will quit

Just that he will disappoint.

[KharmaTrain]

20. Watch Gary Johnson Suck Away His Supporters...

Paul's game was never to win as much as its been to grift off the Paulbots and be a pain in the ass to the party. The most surprised person to see Paul leading in the polls in Iowa was Paul. This is all about raising name visibility and see what leverage he can get from it. He also has alluded that al lot of this is a set up for his son to take over and Rand is firmly ensconsed in the teabagger wing of the GOTB. While I've long predicted that Paul would run third party if he doesn't get some kinda bone thrown at him by the rushpublican establishment, I don't see the fire in his belly to distance. But then if he walks into the rushpublican convention with a big chunk of delegates and there's no other candidate with enough delegates, he could play king maker.

The guy whose gonna try to benefit from all this is Gary Johnson...younger and is already getting his ducks in a row. If Mittens wins the nomination the wingnuts will implode. While a good number will hold their nose and vote for Mittens in hopes of getting rid of the "colored fella"...others will look for an alternative and Johnson could be ready to speak Paulbot and grab 5 or so percent in November...enough to create some real havoc if there's a close election...