Counting the possible votes against the Senate tax bill...

[spooky3]

I’ve heard that the GOP can lose only 2 votes. I understand that Johnson has stated opposition. But isn’t it likely that McCain, Collins, Paul, and Murkowski will also oppose it? So why aren’t the media talking about this and what it would mean for compromises or some other fate for this bill? What am I missing?

[Afromania]

1. Republicans are proven liars and can/will stab the American public in the back every chance it gets.

Until it happens, can't trust a single one of those no votes. It's sad things have gotten this bad, but it's where we are.

[pangaia]

2. Sex, scandal, fires, murders, . That's what brings advertisers clicks.

[akhindman]

3. How do they sleep at night

You would think that at least McCain, being close to death, would not want A yes vote on this to be one of his last major votes. There was a time I respected him, I hope that man is still in there somewhere.

[davekriss]

4. Spooky, theyd have to lose 3 votes

If they lose 2, they have a 50-50 tie in the Senate, in which case Republican VP Pence casts the deciding vote. Just sayin’

[elfin]

5. Dont count on Johnson to stick to that

He made negative noises on the Health bill, but then went Yes. He's just trying to get his name in the news with some sort of verbiage that sounds a bit like he is sticking up for small businesses. The bill will contain a smidge of what he wants and he will crow about that, but in reality will ultimately do nothing or next to nothing for them.

This Wisconsinite still cant believe he beat Russ. He is awful.

[OnDoutside]

12. Exactly. He's only biding his time before voting for it. Johnson must

be one of the most bought off politicians on the hill

[customerserviceguy]

6. And it doesn't matter what they do with the Senate bill

What counts is when both houses of Congress get the conference committee compromise bill. My prediction is that they cannot get fifty votes for anything worked out with the negotiators from the House.

Like "repeal and replace" it's all about the blame game. If one group of Rethugs can say, "We did our job, we deserve support from the base, the other guys dropped the ball", that's all they really can hope to achieve.

[Vidal]

13. Right

What you say is correct. That's why "repeal and replace" was a big charade that went down in flames.

[grantcart]

7. Johnson announced against it.

Corker is against any legislation that adds to the debt.
Flake is doubtful.
McCain said he is against anything that doesn't return to regular order and he said, quite pointedly that this against regular order.
Collins and Murkowski both basically announced that they were against it.
Strange could lose his seat.

This has virtually no chance of passing but the Republicans are trapped and have to appear to not give up.

This is basically A CYA operation so when it fails Trump can run against the legislature, Senate Republicans can blame the House and House Republicans can blame the Senate Republicans.

Hint: note how quiet Democrats in the House/Senate are. If this had a real chance they would be holding sit one filibusters etc.

[murielm99]

9. What does McCain mean by

regular order?

[grantcart]

11. have hearings, invite experts allow minority to

advance amendments.

I think McCain sees his legacy as returning the Senate to it's roots as a deliberative body.

[onetexan]

10. thank u for the list - very helpful

glad Dems r keeping quiet for now. let the repugs hang themselves over their disastrous bill.

[Vidal]

14. Excellent!

You make some excellent points and I agree with you. However, it still makes sense to place phone calls against the bill to:
Corker
Flake
Murkowski
Collins
Johnson
McCain
Lankford

[still_one]

8. Because if they remove the aca attachment to the bill, it might pass