Election 2015: Labour and Tories neck and neck in final Guardian/ICM poll

[brooklynite]

Source: The Guardian

Labour and the Conservatives are heading into Thursday’s general election neck and neck, tied at 35% each according to the preliminary results of the final Guardian/ICM campaign poll.

Ed Miliband’s party has pulled back three points on the previous campaign poll, published nine days ago, with the Conservatives remaining unchanged.

Labour’s recovery goes hand in hand with a squeeze at the political fringe: Ukip and the Greens both slip back two points, to 11% and 3% respectively.

The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 9%, a buoyant Scottish National party climbs one to a Britain-wide score of 5%. Plaid Cymru are on 1%, and other minor parties are also on 1%.

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/06/general-election-2015-labour-tories-final-guardian-icm-poll

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Every analysis seems to say:

1) Conservatives and Labour will end up close to each other and neither will have a majority

2) Cameron seems to have first shot at forming a coalition

3) Milliband has a far easier job of coalition forming assuming Carmeon will refuse to let UKIP join the Conservatives

4) The Liberal Democrats may go along for the ride with either side, but seem to be almost inconsequential at this point

[starroute]

1. Here's a set of seat-by-seat predictions

http://www.may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

The first set of columns shows the site's own predictions, the others seem to be various polls. All show the Conservatives winning more seats than Labour -- which is why they would get the first chance to form a coalition -- but with the Lib Dems falling so far by everyone's measure, the Conservatives don't have much in the way of potential partners. And if UKIP gets only 2-3 seats despite standing at over 13% in the polls, even an alliance with them would leave the Conservatives far short of a majority.

It's going to be interesting.

[roamer65]

2. Prediction: Ed Miliband will be the next PM of the UK.

The SNP will form a coalition with Labour. Then the LibDems will have no choice but to switch over to join those two parties if they want any of their agenda da to be considered. The Cons will be the opposition party when all is done.

[rep the dems]

3. I'm an outsider to this (despite living in England for a few months after Cameron's election)

but I think you're right. SNP can't afford to sell out like the Lib Dems did last time and the Lib Dems have already sold out once so what difference does it make to them? It's logical in ideology as well as the numbers game.