Battleground Tracker: Sanders Surges in IA, NH; Clinton up in SC

[Jesus Malverde]

Source: CBS

Bolstered by support from liberal Democrats, Bernie Sanders tops Hillary Clinton in primary voters' preference in both the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, while Clinton holds a lead in South Carolina.


Read more: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/battleground-tracker-sanders-surges-in-ia-nh-clinton-up-in-sc/

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[demwing]

1. In a 2 way race

give any O'Malley votes to Bernie, and all the rest to Clinton, and Bernie still leads in both NH and IA.

The future is coming on...

[marym625]

2. YAY!

[totodeinhere]

3. Up ten in Iowa. Up 22 in New Hampshire. That's just amazing.

And even in South Carolina half of the respondents wanted someone other than Clinton.

I am in Nevada and active in local Democratic politics and I can tell you based upon my observations that Bernie is also popular here. If Bernie takes Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada and comes closer than expected in South Carolina then it's panic time for the Clinton camp.

[Le Taz Hot]

6. Some of our local Central Californians

are talking about driving to Nevada to help you guys campaign and I know there are other groups from around California preparing to do the same. Any idea what his numbers are in Nevada?

[totodeinhere]

7. I haven't seen any recent polls. It's hard to predict because we have an odd system.

We have local caucuses that select delegates to a statewide convention which then picks our delegates to the national convention. But the convention is not obligated to select the candidate who got the most votes in the caucuses although they usually do. So it's hard to conduct a poll that can predict how the state convention will turn out. That's why we don't see many Nevada polls even though we are one of the first states to hold caucuses.

The conventional wisdom is that Clinton is more popular in Clark County were Vegas is while Bernie has better support everywhere else. But so far in this campaign conventional wisdom is not working out very well. So we will see. In my local precinct at least I believe that it will be almost 100% for Bernie.

[totodeinhere]

5. Biden has not announced that he is not running.

When and if he does then they will stop including him.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

13. But he hasn't and probably won't announce.

So why do they keep putting him in the polls? It would be a hell of a lot more accurate right now if they left him out of it.

Why not put in Al Gore? He hasn't announced either.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

8. 'Up' is a relative term.

As other polls have noted, Clinton was beating Sanders 78 to 8 in South Carolina a month and a half back or so. She's still AHEAD of him there, but her 70 point lead is now a 23 point lead.

[Divernan]

9. Very significant point!

[Tommy2Tone]

12. Funny how you just ignore you are tied with a guy who isn't running.

nt

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

14. I the person isn't running, why bother? If he announces, we'll see.

[ananda]

10. Maybe Sanders should start working on SC now!

He can turn that around too.

[4lbs]

11. That's pretty much what Nate Silver said in his analysis.

He said Sanders could win NH and Iowa, but likely wouldn't win most of the Southern states.

NH and Iowa are 90% white. But in the Southern States, like South Carolina, the minorities are a much larger percentage, and Clinton has a gigantic lead over Sanders with minorities. Other states that are Democratic strongholds are the same way, like California and New York.

The percentage lead that Clinton has over Sanders in South Carolina almost matches the percentage difference in minorities in South Carolina versus NH and Iowa.

South Carolina is 30% minority

Georgia is 35% minority.

North Carolina is 26% minority.

Virginia is 26% minority.



California is 40% minority.

New York is 33% minority.

Illinois is 22% minority, a state that went blue the last 6 Presidential elections.


For Sanders to win the South, most blue states, and the Democratic nomination, he has to make huge inroads with minorities. Otherwise, his perceived possible wins in NH and Iowa will be short-lived and forgotten by March.

The next 5 months will be interesting indeed.