This post-debate poll will horrify the GOP establishment

[Attorney in Texas]

Source: Vox.com

36 percent of poll respondents support Donald Trump; 12 percent support Ben Carson; and 10 percent support Carly Fiorina. All together, that's 58 percent of Republican debate-watchers who support one of the three candidates in the race with no experience in elected office whatsoever. To put it another way, none of the twelve candidates in the field with political experience managed to crack 10 percent of the vote.
...
Jeb Bush's numbers are dismal — and Scott Walker's are even worse

6 percent of poll respondents said they would vote for Jeb Bush. That ties him with Chris Christie for sixth place (behind Trump, Carson and Fiorina, as well as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio). Just like Trump is somehow still gaining support, Bush is somehow still losing it.

It is definitely bad news for the Republican establishment that their preferred candidate is getting 6 percent in the polls. But the man who was supposed to be his "conservative challenger" is doing even worse. Scott Walker, who when the race started was the closest thing to the candidate of the conservative movement, is polling at 1 percent. He is tied with former New York Governor George Pataki.



Read more: http://www.vox.com/2015/9/19/9353865/republican-poll-debate-fiorina

---

Not enough polling to draw any definitive conclusions about how the Republican race has been shaped by the debate and other recent developments, but it is clear that things are not moving in the direction that the Republican establishment had in mind.

[marmar]

1. Scott Walker has descended into Bobby Jindal territory

[katmondoo]

2. Just where Scott should be

[Chakab]

7. I'm actually shocked at how badly he's fallen on his face. The empty suits who are backed by biig

money can usually get away with it.

[Jack Rabbit]

14. The fact they can't get away with it anymore goes a long ways toward explain Bernie's viability

Do you really want a candidate beholden to special interests as the candidate of your party? And don't kid yourself. If a candidate is taking cash from corporations by the truckload, that candidate is bought.

Justice Kennedy may have concluded in the Citizens United decision that there's nothing to show that a polical candidate or office holder is influenced by large campaign contributions, but We, The People, know better.

[wordpix]

27. even Trumpie's made the point that pols are bought by big contribution$

SCOTUS majority is nothing but delusional/liars if they think pols aren't influenced by contributors

[Jack Rabbit]

43. What delusion?

That wasn't a delusion; that was a baldfaced lie.

[wordpix]

26. yes, the Kocheads must be concerned about their lagging horse

[groundloop]

3. I'm truly amazed that Trump is polling so well.... was fully expecting Jeb to take it

I am guardedly optimistic about the general election, IMO either of our two (at this point) leading candidates should be able to clean up on Trump. I just can't believe a majority of Americans would be so foolish as to vote for a billionaire who's businesses have gone bankrupt 4 times. I also can't believe that the goper establishment will put much effort into a Trump candidacy.

[awoke_in_2003]

41. I'm not...

he is giving the republican voters exactly what they want- bigotry and vitriol.

[sofa king]

59. I think it's been an enormous mistake.

I understand the rationale of The Man: Let the clowns run the first act of the circus, then use the gamed system to stage an imaginary "comeback" for Jeb! and his infinitely rich backers.

But I can see different elements playing negative roles that serve themselves rather than the GOP itself. CNN injected Carly Fiorina into the top 3 through a painfully obvious ruse, for example, adjusting their rules to get her into the parents' debate and then fluffing her the following day while the rest of journalism dissected her bald-faced lies.

Maybe the intent really was to float a TV personality, a black brain surgeon, and a terrible female CEO as the front-runners for awhile, then circle back to the rich white guy as their "savior" later in the year. But if it was I don't think it worked very well.

One thing doofus republican voters have a big problem with is having their favorite doofus candidate taken away from them, as we saw last time when hard-rights failed to back Romney. So the more doofuses who line up behind Trump, the more who will stay home on election day after The Man steals it for Jeb.

[Mass]

4. Comparing apples to oranges. Amazing that Vox would make such an error.

All previous polls were for registered voters. The latest poll is a poll of people who watched the debate and plan to vote in the Republican primary (registered? who knows).

For this poll, click here

The Morning Consult survey polled 504 registered voters who said they watched the Republican primary debate and that they plan to participate in their state’s Republican presidential nominating contest. Of those voters, 69 percent identified themselves as Republicans, and 28 percent called themselves independents.

For previous poll, click here


Nobody has any idea of the composition of the audience to start with, and there is no indication of how many people refused to answer.

So, a comparison between these results is stupid, and both Morning Consult and Vox are fools (which does not mean Trump has necessarily lost ground. We will know that after a few polls).

[PSPS]

6. You're right. It's a meaningless poll. Doesn't matter anyway since none of them will win the GE.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

5. I've said for years the Republicans were lacking someone with charisma....

Now that they have someone, they're actually dangerous.

Trump is the type that would actually start a roundup of "Mexicans" and legal or not legal will not matter.

If a white guy is driving down the street and sees a brown person they'll think, "We missed one."

They want a PURGE.

[Lychee2]

18. Trump has a funny kind of "charisma."

He's half-clown, half-demagogue. But his message appeals to a lot of Republicans.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

20. They see him as Limbaugh with hair.

[smirkymonkey]

53. Very, very bad hair.

Sorry, just had to get that one in.

[awoke_in_2003]

42. "He's half-clown, half-demagogue"

il Duce

[wordpix]

28. "How do we get rid of them?" repuke question to Trump

of course, the questioner was asking about Muslims but any group will do for the repugs

[Spitfire of ATJ]

49. FOX "News" was showing footage of ISIS jumpcut with images of the Mexican border....

I know someone who saw that and heard the interviews with some Texas sheriff and he told me ISIS was in Mexico.

[Major Hogwash]

57. Diebold voting machines and voting restriction laws in several states could give him the edge.

The Republicans are dangerous.
Not because they can stand on their own merits, or values, in a close race.

But, they are dangerous precisely because the deck is stacked against an honest Democratic opponent competing with them in the General Election.

[Sunlei]

8. so,Trump quits & it's BushGang3 or one of the Corp. dream Presidents, a "no experience" person.

So easy to take advantage of.

[uhnope]

9. that's because the "Republican establishment" is in collapse

it should come as no surprise that the machine can't push Bush and Walker the way it used to push the preferred candidates. The machine is breaking down, has been at least since GWB.

[smirkymonkey]

54. This is good!

[tomm2thumbs]

10. Forum vs. Debate....

I hate to post this, 5 1/2 of dumfukkery 'Take Back America' bullsh&t, but if a Progressive organization would be able to create a high-profile version of such a forum on the Democratic side, I'm sure pressure would be put on all candidates to be there, especially with the debate limit currently being offered up by DNC, and would force candidates to offer up all of their ideas vs. soundbites.

Gawd these nutjobs are about as listenable as an ice pick to my ears.

There has to be some way to form an alternative to the DNC's debate that allows issues to be brought to the forefront without scaring candidates out of attending because they will be 'banned' from debates by DWS and her idiocy.

[bucolic_frolic]

11. You're looking at

a brokered convention where Ailes and the Kochs pick someone else, or
get behind JEB! and cut deals.

The Republican brand has no elasticity left and is not rebounding. They are
dour fundamentalists with neanderthal ideas from the 1920s.

Personally, my hunch is they will go with someone with energy, and that is Paul,
and pair him with crucial electoral votes, Kasich.

[moonscape]

17. And I think they'll go with the younger Rubio ... energetic and Florida n/t

[C Moon]

12. I wonder where the Koch Brothers are planning on dumping their kazillions.

Probably Walker—oh well for them.
They're probably going nuts about now. They helped create the Tea Party, let them deal with it.

[Attorney in Texas]

13. Now that Walker has caved, will it be Rubio or Cruz?

[jmowreader]

25. More than likely Cruz

Cruz has more fire in the belly than Rubio, and GOP voters like that. Rubio also changes religious denominations about as often as Trump changes wives.

[wordpix]

29. it will be Trump

Even if he has some liberal ideas like taxing hedge funds more, he is "it"

[tooeyeten]

15. Lovely

What they deserve.

[QED]

16. What is the appeal of Carson?

Is it that he isn't Trump but isn't the usual crowd either?

[Wash. state Desk Jet]

23. Interesting question.

In the early stages he has become a curiosity almost a carving of the republican voter base for something/someone new.
The same Ole same Ole has become tiring so they want new. Politicians are not capable of reinventing themselves,you know like Madonna does !

So for the time being new looks good! But of course the question remains, for how long ?
Carson's presence doesn't seem to convey one who is in it for the power. Perhaps that has something to do with that which makes him a curiosity.
You know, it like the salesperson thing, if the subconscious looks at it, chances are the shopper will buy it !

He has them looking but in a curious way about it. Note his polling numbers haven't jumped up.
Still ,they remain curious.

[eppur_se_muova]

33. Carson is seriously religious, appeals to evangelicals. nt

[Agnosticsherbet]

36. Favorite of religious right.

[geek tragedy]

37. Let's them 'prove' they're not racist nt

[David__77]

38. My father praised Carson to my over the last year.

I think he said that Carson is smart and he enjoyed a Carson book. I don't find my father to be particularly religious. His first vote was for Barry Goldwater, and he supported John B. Anderson in 1980. I don't know what "groups" support Carson.

[Attorney in Texas]

47. Carson 2016 is Santorum 2012. He's nice-seeming (provided that you're generally OK with bigotry) and

talks about his faith a lot and he holds himself apart from the Washington DC insiders who have been promising to repeal Roe v. Wade for three decades on the campaign trail and then make no efforts to honor that promise once they are elected.

There is a subset within the Republican voting blocks (a subset particularly over-represented in Iowa) who are looking for a candidate who (1) publicly espouses Christian faith, (2) is not a Washington DC insider, (3) and who seems nice in a Mr. Rogers Neighborhood way.

Santorum with his goofy sweater vests was that guy in 2012 (and it was Huckabee before that).

Carson is projecting himself as that guy in 2016.

Plus, the utter failure of Huckabee and Santorum in 2016 is helping Carson achieve a near monopoly of support within this subset of the Republican party.

Carson is the dark horse to watch in the Iowa caucus (and, like Santorum 2012, that would be the high point of his campaign; Carson has no likely path forward beyond Iowa but he could possibly make headlines in Iowa).

[Turbineguy]

19. Lots of repubs want people with no experience

it fits right in with the republican health plan. High school dropouts will perform surgery. This will work because money will be saved on post-operative care.

[Plucketeer]

21. I'm glad I'm not a rethug

I needed a good laugh!

[tomm2thumbs]

22. Carly is flavor of the month

[wordpix]

30. her big lie about harvesting the brain of a "full grown fetus" will sink her

not that repukes care about truth

[wordpix]

31. her big lie about harvesting the brain of a "full grown fetus" will sink her

not that repukes care about truth

[6chars]

24. predictwise leaning toward jebbie

Jeb - 37% chance of winning nomination. The Donald: 14%

[restorefreedom]

32. my prediction: trump/fiorina

jeb! might have to settle for miss congeniality.

[Attorney in Texas]

39. I'm still betting Bush/Kasich, but of Trump pulls off an upset, he may need Fiorina, but then it's a

ticket where NEITHER the top NOR bottom has held so much as a 6-month term as dog catcher let alone any higher public office.

If Trump pulls this off (very unlikely), I think he gets Gov. Susana Martinez or Sen. Kelly Ayotte.

[restorefreedom]

40. gosh i would like to think

ayotte has a little more pride in herself. its a good pick on his part but would likely mean the end of her career.

true that trump/fiorina would have little experience between them. except for his "i'm a great dealmaker" routine

bush/kasich makes me ill...total eatablishment all the way.....

[Attorney in Texas]

46. 100 times I have said "Ayotte has a little more pride in herself" than to follow the party line on

this outrage or that -- each time I have been disappointed.

She is a smart candidate who is undone by her overweening ambition that ultimately motivates her to do party loyalty things she should be smart enough to avoid. Ayotte is an endless disappointment and I have sworn off the phrase "Ayotte has a little more pride in herself" because she has turned out to be a twisted midget of the politician should could have been.

[restorefreedom]

48. well if that is the case

she deserves whatever "accolades" she gets by hitching her wagon to tRump if that is what happens.

i guess some people never learn.....

[Geronimoe]

50. Trump would never have Fiorina in his cabinet or as VP

Her ego would not allow her to work under anyone.

She was fired from the McCain campaign. On TV she said niether Obama or McCain were capable of running a major corporation as CEO. It takes great talents, that only Carly has.

[restorefreedom]

51. anhhh so the female trump, ego wise

i do believe if he could run for both slots, he would.

[lib87]

34. All of Them are Whackybirds

I can't wait to see who comes out of the pack as the nominee.

[Gothmog]

35. These polls are not good news for the GOP

The RNC changed the rules to compress the primary process and limit debates. It appears that these rule changes may end up helping Trump and the GOP could be staring at a brokered convention

[Chipper Chat]

44. They wil suspend the rules

and declare JEB! the nominee.

[Attorney in Texas]

45. It's an odd situation where Bush is the only candidate who has the scratch to challenge Trump on

Super Tuesday (currently -- it is still very early), but the rank-and-file base seems to hate Bush.

Trump has a base that does not appear ready to move on to the next flavor (Fiorina does not seem to be making huge inroads among Trump supporters).

Bush is weak, Walker is weaker, Christie and Jindal are weaker still, Rubio is too green (and -- in Texas, at least, and probably elsewhere -- Latino candidates who are not Ted Cruz underperform in the Republican primary), and Kasich forfeited any hope of winning the nomination when he put Ohio citizens' best interest ahead of Republican partisanship by embracing Obamacare. There is no great hope in the race.

That said, there is a reason why Predictwise and other betting markets give Trump no better than a 13% chance of winning the nomination. There is a billion dollars in Republican campaign funds that the Republicans would prefer to spend in the general election but will be spent in the primary if necessary to shut Trump down.

This will get ugly (or -- I should say -- uglier).

[Wash. state Desk Jet]

52. Your assessment is based on what you see as you see it go down.

On Bush,- go back to in time to where Jeb Bush came out to declare he is his own man. It's old stuff now but at that beginning Bush stepped out to introduce a new Bush unlike like the others Bush's. A Bush tailored made just for the occasion. They will leave Bush out there to stumble around ,speak dumb as most anybody can from time to time.And at the same time mixing and mingling around out in public view.Thats typically a Bush politician.

You are right about the money and when the Bush handlers take control it's back to square (A), thus begins the virtual creation of a puppet that appears to be exactly what the public wants to believe is the one of kind-a very different Bush.

And that is at least six months away !
Does party loyal ring a bell ?
The Bush family are all party loyalist.

When it comes time for the ugly,you will know it.It really hasn't yet begun.
As to Bush, he's a Bush,never does a Bush have dirty hands.

[Enrique]

55. Jindal is holding steady

[Attorney in Texas]

56. lol

[Lychee2]

58. The question is, can Trump get past the superdelegates?

The RNC surely doesn't want him. So he needs a BIG majority of regular delegates to get the nomination. The last time the Republicans went that nuts was with Goldwater in 1964, which was a disaster for the Party. But painful lessons fade with time.

[Javaman]

60. No surprise here.

I predicted it here...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027173927

we all have to think that at some point the right wing will "come to their senses". They won't.

and if the do, who will be the better alternative? they're all crazy.

Never the less, my post proves my point about the repub base.

[Cal33]

61. Maybe the Republican corporate ultimate powers that be should take a hint from the above. And

unless they change their ways, their days may soon be numbered. Too much is too much.