Poll: Clinton's lead over Sanders grows

[brooklynite]

Source: CNN

Hillary Clinton's lead in the Democratic presidential primary race has grown -- and if Vice President Joe Biden decides to stay out of the race, her numbers would rise even higher, a new CNN/ORC poll shows.

Clinton is backed by 42% of Democratic primary voters nationally, compared to 24% for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, 22% for Biden and 1% for former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley.

That's a marked improvement over an early September CNN/ORC poll that found Clinton leading Sanders, 37% to 27%, with Biden at 20%.

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/21/politics/hillary-clinton-leads-bernie-sanders-2016/index.html

[riversedge]

1. Lovely news to start the week with. Congrats to Hillary and her team

[riversedge]

5. Highlights...

Story highlights

Hillary Clinton's lead in the Democratic primary has expanded to 18 percentage points nationally
If Joe Biden doesn't enter the race, Clinton's lead would grow to nearly 2-to-1 over Bernie Sanders

[FloridaBlues]

15. Good news. On the rebound

[Betty Karlson]

29. I don't mean to rain on your parade, but no-one under 50 was polled.

My guess is this poll is worth nothing at all. Sanders' support is found especially among millennials.

Rebounds may be possible, but that requires a representative polling group. For instance, there were next to no minorities in this poll. If Mrs. Clinton has affirmed her hold over these voters, it is not reflected in this poll either.

The poll is worthless and the results are worthy of Fox. Bad call on the part of CNN.

[RoccoR5955]

34. What more do you expect from Chicken Noodle News? n/t

[DCBob]

43. Debunked.

[Lychee2]

50. How do you know that?

Straight question. The poll describes itself this way:

Interviews with 1,006 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC
International on September 17 - 19, 2015. The margin of sampling
error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage
points.

The sample also includes 924 interviews among registered voters (plus
or minus 3 percentage points).

This sample includes 606 interviews among landline respondents and
400 interviews among cell phone respondents.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/09/20/dempoll.pdf

[Helen Borg]

60. Check out page 7...

The under 50 has N/A, meaning that they were not polled. Very disturbing poll for this reason, since the description says nothing about it being only for people > 50!

[DCBob]

61. It does not mean there were not polled.

They were just not displayed in the crosstabs section due to large error rate due to small sample size. The overall survey result includes them. This only impacts the crosstabs breakdown. Its a survey science thing... if the error rate is very high don't even show it because it could be misleading. They deal with the small sample size by weighting. This is a good poll.. imo.

[JackRiddler]

69. Hmm...

This admission hardly inspires confidence that the poll reflects the views of under 50s.

[Dopers_Greed]

45. Congrats for doing what, exactly?

Refusing to campaign and debate?

[riversedge]

78. Perhaps you missed all the interviews and shows Hillary has been doing past few weeks.

[Renew Deal]

2. People haven't considered that the only ones paying attebtion now are the most interested Democrats

Her lead will continue to grow as less interested Dems check in.

[SusanaMontana41]

71. Nah, can't say that.

Democrats are plenty engaged, as are Repignicans.

I can't remember this level of sniping so early in a campaign, though.

[INdemo]

3. 392 Samplings is not much of a poll?

Just enough to report a poll was taken...so I dont put much stock into this poll
And just what would those numbers be if Biden entered the race?

Elections are won by votes. How is Hillary doing in Iowa in NH?

[moobu2]

8. Unless the poll shows your candidate ahead.

[INdemo]

10. No if Bernie was ahead I would say the same.

Networks take these or have these polls taken just so they can report poll results.
Faux used to report results in 2012 for even less samplings just so they could report Romney was tied with Obama which of course wasnt the case at all.

[PatrynXX]

31. I'd say I have zero stock in polls

just look at Mitt and Fox Nuts. oh that is not right Megyn go check the MEN they know it. out lier polls. but either way. Hillary and Trump don't see much difference. Hillary and Bush Jr don't see much difference and they own the same things O_O so if you like jr. you'll love hillary. Big difference between people who get called and assume hillary will win and people who bother to show up for Caucuses and Primaries. They decide who's going to run not polls. and Hillary still went from a shoo in to I don't know to I don't know if she has the get out power to win the General . So with Hillary .... if she wins either way it'll be a bit more Red 4 years. and this is my opinion.

[INdemo]

36. With the DNC leadership you just might be

Correct. Voters want a change a real change and Bernie Sanders could/would draw Republican voters and the so called Reagan Democrats . There are those that would vote for Kermit the Frog if Hillary is the nominee.

[murielm99]

64. If your candidate was ahead in this poll,

It would be posted twice on the front page, with forty recs.

I expect the debunking. Yawn.

[SusanaMontana41]

73. True enough.

Everyone can point to a poll.

[pnwmom]

11. It has a 5% margin of error, which means the sample size is accurate

after accounting for the margin of error.

A larger sample would have had a smaller margin of error, but both would be accurate, 95% of the time, to within their stated MOE's.

[FloridaBlues]

16. Actually she's closing the gap in both

According to msnbc yesterday in NH
HRC 31% Bern 35%

[Gman]

20. That's plenty to be statistically significant.

And consistent with most othe polls.

[George II]

39. She's alternating the lead in Iowa and down a few % in NH, but.........

....there are 4,483 delegates up for grabs. Iowa and New Hampshire have only 54 and 32 delegates (86 total), less than 2% of total delegates.

And the OP article has the numbers WITH Biden in the race (Clinton up 18%) or without (Clinton up 29%)

If I was a Sanders follower, I'd be worried that he's only 2% ahead of an undeclared candidate.

[riversedge]

4. Politico:- Poll: Clinton picking up steam against Sanders

POLITICO ‏@politico 2m2 minutes ago

Poll: Clinton picking up steam against Sanders http://politi.co/1MDnmWP | Getty



Poll: Clinton picking up steam against Sanders

By Nick Gass

09/21/15, 06:41 AM EDT

In a reversal of a recent slump, Hillary Clinton rose among Democratic voters in a new CNN/ORC national poll out Monday morning, widening the gap between herself and Bernie Sanders. And if Vice President Joe Biden decides against running for the presidency, her advantage could rise even further.

Clinton picked up 42 percent, with Sanders grabbing 24 percent and Biden, who has not made a decision about running, with 22 percent. Other candidates polled within the margin of error. But if Biden elects not to run, Clinton's lead over Sanders jumps to 57 percent to 28 percent, up from 48 percent to 32 percent in the previous CNN poll.

In that poll, conducted earlier this month, Clinton drew 37 percent to Sanders' 27 percent, while Biden took in 20 percent.
150920_carly_fiorina_ap_1160.jpg



The latest poll comes as the former secretary of state continues a recent blitz of sit-down interviews with national TV networks in an effort to shift the narrative between her campaign and the press.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/poll-cnn-hillary-clinton-democratic-voters-bernie-sanders-joe-biden-2016-213870#ixzz3mN9LvYd0

[cantbeserious]

6. A Vote For Hillary In The Primaries Is A Vote For Trump In The General

eom

[Nitram]

13. You can't be serious.

Try substituting Bernie for Hillary in that absurd statement.

[humbled_opinion]

21. I love how people can conveniently forget

about all the baggage that Hillary will bring to the general election and then try to project that onto the other candidates in the race.

[Bubzer]

22. No one should be equating either Bernie or Hillary with trump.

[Nitram]

23. Exactly. nt

[cantbeserious]

37. One Presumes That Irony Is Lost On Some

eom

[OilemFirchen]

40. Iknowright?

It's like ray-ah-ain on your wedding day!

[Vinca]

7. Of course it is. She's the chosen one.

Limit the debates so no one will know who Bernie is. Good tactic. I wouldn't want to debate Bernie, either.

[SusanaMontana41]

72. WORD.

[pipoman]

9. Do we want a candidate who's lead hinges on someone else staying out of the race?

Historically wild proclamations of victory this far out have meant ultimate defeat..."more of the same" candidates will be upset this cycle.

[Major Hogwash]

44. Yes, because Mitt Romney could jump in to the race any day now.

And that would upset everything that the Democrats have tried to avoid this year . . . having one of their candidates face off against one of the most aggressive, effective Republican presidential candidates the GOP has ever had!!
As long as Joe keeps his shoes on, Mitt will probably sit this one out.
But, if Joe decides to sit back and put on his loafers . . . look out!
Anything could happen in the Romney camp!

[Madmiddle]

12. Another bogus CNN poll. Bernie is still way ahead!

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

27. Now, now, it's not bogus just because everyone polled was over 50... heh. nt

[Travis_0004]

28. I'm not sure why you think that, but either way its not true

There were people polled in every age group. It was listed as NA, because the sample size was a bit smaller relative to the population, and it had a sample error rate higher than 8.5%

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

33. So at best, even by your own logic, they polled less than 8.5% people under 50?

Yeah, that really reflects the general population.

You can't spin it easily. Either they polled no one under 50 or they polled so few people under 50 that they can't break it out of the error rate. Either way, it's an incredibly skewed poll, skewed to the old people who tend to vote more for Hillary and less for Bernie.

[OilemFirchen]

41. So at best, even by your own logic...

Margin of Error = Population Participating.

[David__77]

52. I don't think that's what it means.

According to the survey details located at http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/09/20/dempoll.pdf:

Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of +/-8.5 percentage points or less. Some subgroups represent too small a share of the national population to produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error.

What this does tell me is that there were more people surveyed in the 50-64 age group than in the 18-49 age group, and there were more people surveyed in the 65+ age group than in the 18-49 age group.

[redstateblues]

66. Any poll not favorable to Bernie is bogus

and obviously tampered with by the 1% corporatist third way centrist establishment types

[Nitram]

14. The 7 stages of grief.

Looks like some people are in stage 3, Denial.

[Betty Karlson]

17. O dear, that was a zinger. LOL. n/t

[a kennedy]

18. I'm curious, how did Barak and Hillary look at this time during 2012 primary?? eom

[NuclearDem]

48. *2008

[a kennedy]

53. *slap face*.......sorry, were polls looking like then this far out from the election. eom

Last edited Tue Sep 22, 2015, 08:32 AM - Edit history (1)

[Gothmog]

19. This is great news

[mcar]

24. They need to stop including Biden in every poll

Some polling to see where he'd stand, yes. But he shouldn't be in every one until and if he declares. Love Joe but this falsely skews the results.

[JackRiddler]

76. No, "they" need that desperately.

A clear Sanders vs. Clinton match up is going to show nothing but rises for Sanders as people become aware of him.

[imthevicar]

25. no one under 50 polled?

SKEWED.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

26. ^^^^ This. OP fail.

Her 'lead grows' when you completely exclude age groups more likely to vote for Sanders and poll only the age group that tends to vote more for her.

heh.

[Travis_0004]

30. People under 50 were polled. Stop spreading false information.

[TM99]

35. Yup, and the margin of error was so large

that they had to throw out those results.

So this poll is left with those only over 50 being in the results.

Yes, this is a thoroughly flawed poll.

But please continue to cling to them as long as you must.

[Travis_0004]

38. They didn't throw them out

They just didn't include them in the breakdowns. It was included in the overall poll.

Also, just because I cling to facts, and don't like people spreading false info, don't assume that I'm supporting clinton.

I've actually been banned from the clinton group, and I am a Sanders supporter.

[GeorgeGist]

57. a sample size large enough to do proper statistical analysis.

A sample size too small gets science papers rejected pronto.

[TM99]

58. Look at the overall poll

and the actual numbers for those under 50.

It is a typical MSM poll without a lot of merit.

[hack89]

32. Wrong - go read the methodology section of the poll results again. nt

[Blasphemer]

42. I think the next CNN poll will give a better indication of the trend

Due to the MoE for both of the last two. However, worst case, Clinton's numbers have stabilized, which is still good news for the Clinton campaign. If she weathers this past summer, I think the only thing that could prevent her from winning the nomination is a Biden entry. Polling behind in IA and NH could end up being an unexpected advantage. It potentially opens the door for a "Comeback Kid" narrative like Bill's in '92.

[alcibiades_mystery]

46. Gonna be lots of people stomping their feet and pouting about a "fixed election" come February/March

Is the Sanders supporters bubble of sameness more powerful than even the Romney bubble was in 2012?

Time will tell.

[DCBob]

47. Nice photo on CNN now..

http://www.cnn.com/

[Helen Borg]

59. Immaculate Conception?

[elleng]

49. For information, Hillary Clinton Rates Unfavorably in New York State Poll.

A rough political summer has left Hillary Rodham Clinton with negative favorability ratings in a New York State poll for the first time, a low mark in the state she represented as a senator for eight years.

Mrs. Clinton was viewed unfavorably by 51 percent of the voters polled, compared with 46 percent who see her in a favorable light, a new Siena College survey showed. That is a change from a 56 percent favorable rating and a 40 percent unfavorable rating she had in the same survey in July.

Mrs. Clinton is still viewed positively by 70 percent of Democrats, the poll shows. But even in the state she adopted and represented from 2001 through 2008, her poll numbers have followed the same trend as her national numbers, suffering after a summer of questions about her use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.

Her strongest area of support comes from New York City; her numbers elsewhere in the state — in the upstate and suburban areas, where she spent years working to build her support as a senator — suffer a greater hit.

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/09/21/hillary-clinton-rates-unfavorably-in-new-york-state-poll/?

[lunamagica]

51. K&R. Go Hillary!

[DCBob]

54. Funny the previous CNN poll with Bernie gaining had same issue with under 50 crosstabs..

Didnt hear any complaints back then.

[Adrahil]

55. Don't bring that up. It upsets the Bernie partisans. nt

[frylock]

62. She has that national primary in the bag.

[tabasco]

63. Well, that's all she wrote. It's all over.

All other candidates except for Clinton should just pack up and go home because of this CNN poll.

[Bounzer]

67. Good news for Hillary

Great.

[Lychee2]

68. Her name is a household word.

Not so with Bernie. That's a big hurdle to overcome without big donors.

The only thing that will stop Hillary will be if another shoe drops in the emails case. For example, if any messages are ever discovered that show that she was trading State Department favors for donations for the Clinton Foundation and Bill's speeches. Check out this article on the subject by Bernie supporter David Sirota here:

http://www.ibtimes.com/clinton-foundation-donors-got-weapons-deals-hillary-clintons-state-department-1934187

[Bounzer]

70. Two conservative blogs commission a poll where Sanders leads Clinton

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/09/22/hot-airtownhall-poll-for-september-trump-plateaus-hillary-down-7-to-sanders/

Most likely, this is an attempt to pretend that the Democratic front runner (whom. Conservatives have always despised) has fallen.

[riversedge]

77. um.. so that is where that B. lead came from. Thanks

[BigDemVoter]

74. I may have my preferences between Clinton, Biden, and Sanders. . . .

But I am voting for whichever one wins the nomination.

[JackRiddler]

75. How to obscure reality by including non-candidates.

How does Elizabeth Warren do in this poll?