Iran Attack Decision Nears, Israeli Elite Locks Down

[Purveyor]

Source: REUTERS

By Michael Stott

JERUSALEM | Thu May 17, 2012 12:39pm EDT

(Reuters) -

--clip
This inner sanctum at the end of a corridor between Netanyahu's private room and the office of his top military adviser, is where one of the decade's most momentous military decisions could soon be taken: to launch an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear program.

Time for that decision is fast running out and the mood in Jerusalem is hardening.

--clip
As the deadline for a decision draws nearer, the public pronouncements of Israel's top officials and military have changed. After hawkish warnings about a possible strike earlier this year, their language of late has been more guarded and clues to their intentions more difficult to discern.

"The top of the government has gone into lockdown," one official said. "Nobody is saying anything publicly. That in itself tells you a lot about where things stand."

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/17/us-israel-iran-idUSBRE84G0UC20120517

[arikara]

1. What a bunch of assholes.

n/t

[RobertEarl]

29. No Nukes

Iran, were it to get a nuke, would end up like Japan.

There is already way too much nuclear waste in the world. Including the Israeli waste. Gawd, i hope Israel has their waste protected so that an 'accident' like Fukushima can't happen.

No More Nukes. None. Fini.

[riderinthestorm]

2. A very, very nervous K&R.

Personally I believe the strike is coming very soon. Netanyahu wants to do it and wouldn't mind fucking up Obama's campaign either.

Damn, damn, damn.

[magical thyme]

3. exactly my thought.

Accomplish their goals in Iran AND here. Really, I do NOT want Mittens in the white house. And I do NOT want us dragged into yet another war. And bazillion dollar a barrel oil.

fuck.fuck.fuck.

[KansDem]

4. So, what's the reason for this again?

I've forgotten what the reason was the last time...

[FogerRox]

6. IIRC it was

the moon will not be out, this is perfect flying conditions for the stealth bombers.

Or was that the time before that?


On no, wait, it was the tide will be high, perfect for a Marine landing....

Oh gee, I forget.....

[xtraxritical]

5. We should abrogate our treaties with Israel and let them do what they have to do without Us.

If the Israelis do this the President will garner much more support if he keeps America out of it. We've already armed them to the maximum and Israel should have not a problem with the strike. Why they want to start WWIII Armageddon I can't figure.

[ieoeja]

7. What makes you think this would be worse than Syria or Iraq?

They blew up nuclear sites in those two countries with no consequence.

[Comrade Grumpy]

9. Hezbollah, for one.

I would anticipate retaliatory attacks from them.

Also, I don't think Iran will respond as passively as Syria or Iraq.

Maybe trouble in the Persian Gulf, too.

[magical thyme]

15. 3 strikes and you're out

Iran has more friends than Syria or Iraq. And more powerful friends.

[teddy51]

8. "Why they want to start WWIII Armageddon I can't figure." I bet that is exactly what

will happen if they do this.

[RZM]

13. Highly unlikely

Proxy wars and terrorism, sure. But WWIII and nuclear weapons? No way.

Iran doesn't have a whole lot of reliable allies. Syria has its hands full with the ongoing rebellion. Russia and China will strongly condemn strikes, but they aren't about to get involved in a war over a beef between Iran and Israel.

[NickB79]

20. In the short-term, it would probably ignite a regional war and spike oil prices

A few countries might throw a few bombs and rockets at each other, but the real damage will be done by insurgent groups that will gain from the turmoil and hatred of the US and Israel. I would expect that formerly stable countries like Saudi Arabia would eventually be in danger of falling, similar to what we're now seeing in Yemen, at which point you would see the US and the UN sending in troops to "maintain peace". This would really be a euphemism for "maintaining the flow of oil", and oil wells, refineries and pipelines would become prime targets to the opposition.

It probably wouldn't create WWIII, but the disruption to the world oil market would create another global recession at the least. In the long-term, though, it could rachet up tension between countries like the US and China, both heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil to fuel their economies.

[AverageJoe90]

30. What makes you think this will start WWIII?

The Cold War ended in 1991, my friend, and this is nowhere near the level of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

I don't doubt things could get somewhat nasty for Israel and Iran on the off chance something does happen(although even Netanyahu would be monumentally stupid to pull anything now, and I think he may realize that since we've come far closer in the past.), and maybe a notable spike in U.S. oil prices, but WWIII? No. Moscow isn't going to gamble with the lives of 160 million people and neither will Washington.

[sinkingfeeling]

10. If they do that, I say not another dime in aid and an end to any

military assistance.

[Javaman]

11. Whew! good thing, because the price of gas was coming down.

[Jackpine Radical]

12. I don't know that it would be Armageddon

(depending on how Russia & China react; I don't think they'll unleash Hell on Earth over Iran), but it would be an incredibly bad thing nevertheless, in that it would nuke the world economy if not the globe itself--not to mention the electoral consequences here.

[RZM]

14. I kind of doubt there would be electoral consequences here, as long as . . . .

Obama acts competently and the situation doesn't spiral completely out of control. Both Obama and Mittster would try so hard to gain any advantage that I think it would be a wash.

However, if Obama managed to make the situation demonstrably worse or didn't show decent leadership (contradictory statements, not appearing concerned, making a really unpopular decision and/or changing policies mid-stream, etc.) then there could be an opening for Romney. Of course the reverse is true too. If Mitt stumbles or seems indecisive/unsure of what to do, he could take a hit as well. My guess is that neither would make a serious mistake, though there would be more pressure on Obama since he's the CIC and would actually have to make decisions with real consequences.

[magical thyme]

16. you're more optimistic about Mittens than I am

Mittens cannot pass up opportunities for gaffes. And in his quest to be the most severe conservative armchair chickenhawk that ever strutted the face of the earth, I'm afraid he'd manage to gaffe us into disaster.

I mean, look at how he handled *rumors* about our handling of the blind Chinese activist situation when Hillary was in the middle of financial discussions with China?

Hopefully his staff has plenty of duck tape on hand, because about the best wartime use I can think of it would be plastered over his big, fat, gaffe-prone yap.

[RZM]

18. That's entirely possible

Though he seems most prone to gaffes about stuff like firing people and car elevators.

But he could easily make a big mistake reacting to Iran. We'll see I guess.

[Behind the Aegis]

17. "The sky is falling, the sky is falling." - Chicken Little

It's been a few weeks, guess we needed "the scare."

[Brooklyn Dame]

19. Hawks on the attack and buzzards circling...

http://borderlessnewsandviews.com/2012/05/its-great-to-be-israel/

[Angleae]

21. If Israel was truly serious abount launching an attack, we wouldn't hear about it until afterwards.

[Posteritatis]

22. Yep. People have been saying one is imminent for a decade now. 9nt)

[AverageJoe90]

31. Very true. Perhaps this is just more posturing.

[Ghost Dog]

23. ... American military plans to strike Iran "ready" and option "fully available"

... U.S. ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro said this week American military plans to strike Iran were "ready" and the option was "fully available".

... "I think they have made a decision to attack," said one senior Israeli figure with close ties to the leadership. "It is going to happen. The window of opportunity is before the U.S. presidential election in November. This way they will bounce the Americans into supporting them."

... "I think they've gone into lockdown mode now," the senior Western diplomat said. "Whatever happens next, whatever they decide, we will not find out until it happens."


These quotes appear to represent the meat of this article, written by journalists who appear to have gained the impression that they're going to do it. Buy Oil.

[Strelnikov_]

24. " . . window of opportunity is before the U.S. presidential election in November . . "

And Obama will become LBJ.

I hope to hell Obama refuses and they hold off until Romney is elected (I do not think Obama will be reelected, electoral college).

Whatever party has the white house when the fallout from this goes down will be in deep trouble.

On second thought, maybe that is why popping a cap in Iran has to be done before the election.

[Strelnikov_]

25. The way (our) world ends

The Iran attack has been marketed to the US populace as another 'shock and awe' event in that there may be some loss of US military, but overall it carries a risk similar to that of the attack on Iraq.

Problem is, there is a scenario where an attack on Iran could result in the collapse of the United States economy. The resultant violence and starvation could result in the deaths of millions.

My estimate of the current script the 'actors' are using is as follows:

- The US or Israel conduct 'limited' airstrikes on Iran, hitting mostly military and 'nuclear' sites.

- Iran (Supreme Leader/Assembly of Experts) know that the US/Israel cannot invade, and the air strikes will have to be 'limited' in nature to avoid a backlash in the Muslim world. They plan on playing this like Hizbollah in '06. That is, take the strikes, respond militarily in a very measured way as a show of resistance, and promote themselves as having resisted the 'crusaders' attack, thus making them the rightful leaders of the Ummah.

Problem is, war tends to go off script (WW I was to be over 'before the leaves fall', Iraq II, etc.).

All it would take is for a US naval commander or Revolutionary Guard officer to go off script (overreact) to trigger a conflict that would knock half of the worlds petroleum export capacity off-line essentially overnight.

The Kaiser, the Czar, the Habsburgs etc. did not survive the conflagration they started. Can the US 'leadership' be next?

[Strelnikov_]

26. Part 1 - Operation Muah'dib

He who can destroy a thing, controls a thing - Muah'dib

All data 2005.

- The Persian Gulf represents nearly 50% of the worlds petroleum export market.

- The vast majority of this resource passes through 8 to 10 major facilities (one facility in KSA, Abqaiq, processes 60% of its petroleum production).

- If Iran is attacked in such a way as to threaten the continuity of the regime, they could use their substantial missile inventory in taking out these facilities (I do not believe they will target Israel, as it would have no strategic purpose, and is out of range, whereas targeting the gulf energy infrastructure would strike a mortal blow against the attacking western economies, in particular the US, as I discuss below).

- The US imports ~ 12.4 Mbbl/dy (60% of total consumption) of petroleum which represents around 29% of the worlds petroleum export market.

- Of the next largest petroleum importers (Japan 5.2, China 3.1, Germany 2.4, South Korea 2.2, France 1.9) most have substantial dollar reserves and are significant exporters of finished goods. Basically, we will be outbid on much of what remains of the worlds petroleum export market post attack, as these countries use their export capacity in finished goods to purchase petroleum from Russia, Nigeria, Norway, and Venezuela.

- In the weeks following destruction of the Persian Gulf oil export market, the US will probably see 2/3rds of its imports sold to higher bidders or embargoed, leaving the US with about 60% of the petroleum supply we had pre-attack.

- Approx. 42% of US petroleum is used for personal transport, 22% for commercial transport (trucks that carry food to the stores, etc.). I will leave it to the reader as to the impact a nearly overnight loss of 40% of the US petroleum supply will have to the economy (not to mention the impact due to the collapse of the petrodollar system).

- Russia, India and China will take a pass. Russia stands to make a fortune. And if all the gulf petroleum goes off line, they become the worlds sole energy superpower. China and India will dig in (as they consume much less petroleum), weather the storm, and emerge in a position to snap up all those production contracts that will no longer go to US multinationals for rebuilding the gulf.

- In conclusion, Iran is not toothless. We can physically destroy the country of Iran. There is a good chance they can destroy our economy and begin the process of petrocollapse, ultimately leading to the destruction of a greatly weakened US in a few decades.

So, who wins?

[Strelnikov_]

27. Part 2 - The Spice Processing Facilities

The following represent ~50% of the worlds petroleum export market. Probably at no time in history has so much critical infrastructure been thus concentrated. Consider the capabilities of modern weapons, and that these facilities would be staffed by an angry populace (most of the Gulf petroleum production is located in the ‘Shia Crescent’). Two possible attack vectors, same result.

Abqaiq alone processes 60% of KSA's petroleum.


Dona (Kuwait)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=kuwait&ie=UTF8&ll=29.364822,47.804432&spn=0.106818,0.15295&t=k&z=13&om=1

Mina Al Ahmadi (Kuwait)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=kuwait&ie=UTF8&ll=29.049192,48.148699&spn=0.053574,0.076475&t=k&z=14&om=1

Khiran (Kuwait)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=kuwait&ie=UTF8&t=k&om=1&ll=28.692169,48.373661&spn=0.053758,0.076475&z=14

Ras Ali Khafji (KSA)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=kuwait&ie=UTF8&t=k&om=1&ll=28.404613,48.531933&spn=0.053905,0.076475&z=14

Al Jubayl (Ras Tanura Complex) (KSA)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=kuwait&ie=UTF8&t=k&om=1&ll=27.079303,49.645329&spn=0.10913,0.15295&z=13

Najmah_1 (Ras Tanura Complex) (KSA)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=kuwait&ie=UTF8&t=k&om=1&ll=26.800171,50.022812&spn=0.109401,0.15295&z=13

Najmah_2 (Ras Tanura Complex) (KSA)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=kuwait&ie=UTF8&t=k&om=1&ll=26.659579,50.128212&spn=0.109536,0.15295&z=13

Abqaiq (KSA)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=abqaiq&sll=25.626669,49.004517&sspn=3.535873,4.894409&ie=UTF8&ll=25.935045,49.68039&spn=0.027556,0.038238&t=k&z=15&om=1

Ras Laffan (Qatar)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=Al+Mubarraz&sll=24.691943,54.497681&sspn=3.563055,4.894409&ie=UTF8&ll=25.915207,51.588879&spn=0.055121,0.076475&t=k&z=14&om=1

Ruwais (UAE)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=Al+Mubarraz&sll=24.691943,54.497681&sspn=3.563055,4.894409&ie=UTF8&om=1&ll=24.123882,52.726822&spn=0.112018,0.15295&t=k&z=13&iwloc=addr

Mina Jabal Ali (UAE)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=Al+Mubarraz&sll=24.691943,54.497681&sspn=3.563055,4.894409&ie=UTF8&ll=25.008617,55.059099&spn=0.055537,0.076475&t=k&z=14&om=1

Khawr Fakken (UAE)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=Al+Mubarraz&sll=24.691943,54.497681&sspn=3.563055,4.894409&ie=UTF8&ll=25.310123,56.370077&spn=0.0277,0.038238&t=k&z=15&om=1

Al Qurayyah (UAE)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=Al+Mubarraz&sll=24.691943,54.497681&sspn=3.563055,4.894409&ie=UTF8&ll=25.198922,56.357932&spn=0.027726,0.038238&t=k&z=15&om=1

Al Liwa (UAE)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=Al+Mubarraz&sll=24.691943,54.497681&sspn=3.563055,4.894409&ie=UTF8&ll=24.483634,56.623106&spn=0.055851,0.076475&t=k&z=14&om=1

Mina al Fahl (Oman)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=abqaiq&sll=25.626669,49.004517&sspn=3.535873,4.894409&ie=UTF8&ll=23.602728,58.416388&spn=0.014039,0.019119&t=k&z=16&om=1

[Strelnikov_]

28. Part 3 - The Spice Trade

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oiltrade.html

All in Mbbl/dy

Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2005

Saudi Arabia 9.1
Russia 6.7
Norway 2.7
Iran 2.6
United Arab Emirates 2.4
Nigeria 2.3
Kuwait 2.3
Venezuela 2.2
Algeria 1.8
Mexico 1.7
Libya 1.5
Iraq 1.3
Angola 1.2
Kazakhstan 1.1
Qatar 1.0

=====

Above represents 39.9 Mbbl/dy of 42 Mbbl/dy world export market
18.7 Mbbl/dy of above in Persian Gulf region

Top World Oil Net Importers, 2005

United States 12.4
Japan 5.2
China 3.1
Germany 2.4
South Korea 2.2
France 1.9
India 1.7
Italy 1.6
Spain 1.6
Taiwan 1.0

Top World Oil Consumers, 2005 (Domestic production in parans.)

United States 20.7 (8.3 - 40%)
China 6.9 (3.8 - 55%)
Japan 5.4 (0.2 - 4%)
Russia 2.8
Germany 2.6
India 2.6
Canada 2.3
Brazil 2.2
Korea, South 2.2
Mexico 2.1
France 2.0
Saudi Arabia 2.0

[Rosa Luxemburg]

32. Why don't they attack Pakistan instead which has nukes

What ives them the right to strike other countries without being invaded. Just like Bush and cheney. Diplomacy is the better option. Perhaps they should all grow up.

[invictus]

33. Who are they kidding? They can't do jack without US support. n/t

[lovuian]

34. I find that Israel is absolutely in self destruct mode

they are crazy and this is sure to lead to WWIII and destruction of Israel