CPI for all items falls 0.2% in September; energy declines outweigh food, shelter...

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Economic News Release USDL-15-2006
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) October 15, 2015

Technical information: [phone] [e-mail] www.bls.gov/cpi
Media Contact: [phone] [e-mail]

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – SEPTEMBER 2015

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.2 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index was essentially unchanged before seasonal adjustment.

The energy index fell 4.7 percent in September, with all major component indexes declining. The gasoline index continued to fall sharply and was again the main cause of the seasonally adjusted all items decrease. The indexes for fuel oil, electricity, and natural gas declined as well.

In contrast to the energy declines, the indexes for food and for all items less food and energy both accelerated in September. The food index rose 0.4 percent, its largest increase since May 2014. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in September. The indexes for shelter, medical care, household furnishings and operations, and personal care all increased; the indexes for apparel, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and airline fares were among those that declined.

The all items index was essentially unchanged for the 12 months ending September after posting a 0.2 percent increase for the 12 months ending August. The 18.4 percent decline in the energy index over the past year offset increases in the indexes for food (up 1.6 percent) and all items less food and energy (up 1.9 percent).
....

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was essentially unchanged over the last 12 months; the September index level is 237.945 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index declined 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) decreased 0.6 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 232.661 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index declined 0.3 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) decreased 0.5 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index declined 0.3 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.

The Consumer Price Index for October 2015 is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, November 17, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).

Read more: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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Government report: you paid for it, so I'm quoting more than four paragraphs.

A lot of people take an interest in this report, as the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is used to determine cost of living adjustments for Social Security.

From Government: No benefit hike for Social Security next year:

....
The cost-of-living adjustment is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, a broad measure of consumer prices generated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It measures price changes for food, housing, clothing, transportation, energy, medical care, recreation and education.

The COLA is calculated by comparing consumer prices in July, August and September each year with prices in the same three months from the previous year. If prices go up, benefits go up. If prices drop or stay flat, benefits stay the same.

The CPI-W numbers for September were released Thursday, providing the last piece of the puzzle.

[Recursion]

1. Wait for people to say "SS is being cut"

[Rafale]

2. But

Anyone notice that electric and natural gas prices and airline ticket prices did not decline as if there was no correlation with reduced crude oil prices? That's called corporate greed--as in milk the poor for their last dime. There should be protests in the streets. There should be news coverage of the scam. Just absolutely amazingly passive is the public. Wow.

No wonder some of the mega-millionaires in Congress think it will be okay to cut SSI.

[packman]

3. And what about medicines?

Those pills that went from $7.50 to whatever.

[sharonsj]

4. the gov't says there is no inflation

Nuts to that. Especially when it comes to food. So far there is a 10% increase in half & half, eggs and meat are much more expensive, dog food went up 8%, my garbage pick-up fee is 10% higher, my school taxes are going through the roof...the list is endless. I spent $25 at the local grocery and got: small bag of potatoes, 3 boxes of pirogies, quart of milk, sour cream, and one steak. I dare any of those fools in Congress to live on the average Social Security payment.

[closeupready]

6. Welcome to DU. I've noticed that prices at ethnic markets

fluctuate in accordance with gas prices, so that some things are markedly lower in price, reflecting lower gas prices and also competitive pressures. If you have ethnic markets in your metropolitan area, I'd suggest looking there.

But with regard to my normal supermarket, nope, no price decreases at all. Insanity.

[Taitertots]

8. Inflation is extremely low. No one is claiming it is zero.

You're making a classic error when thinking about inflation. You're cherry picking a few products with a large increase while ignoring the prices of everything else.

[jamzrockz]

5. Its weird how selective

they get when they are trying to screw you. When you complain that food, gas prices are going up, they come back with "we use a basket of prices to set the CPI" but when gas prices are low, them the basket disappears.

This is why so many young people think the program will be kaput when they are old enough to use it. Truth be told, I sacrifice what I have already paid in SS for a chance to opt out of the program now.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

7. Sherman, set the WABAC Machine for July 2015.

I believe the BLS is pretty consistent on this.

CPI for all items rises 0.3% in June as gasoline, shelter, food indexes rise

From the commentary:

Note that there is a:

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)

Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)

The fine print goes into the distinction.

Here's the thread from three months ago about the March CPI:

CPI for all items rises 0.2% as gasoline and shelter prices rise; food prices decline

Cryptoad points out the significance of the CPI-W. It is used to calculate Social Security's Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA):

Based on the increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI-W) from the third quarter of 2013 through the third quarter of 2014, Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) beneficiaries will receive a 1.7 percent COLA for 2015.

Consumer Price Index Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

[div style="display:inline; background-color:#FFFF66;"]What goods and services does the CPI cover?

The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by the reference population (U or W) BLS has classified all expenditure items into more than 200 categories, arranged into eight major groups. Major groups and examples of categories in each are as follows:
FOOD AND BEVERAGES (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full service meals, snacks)
HOUSING (rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent rent, fuel oil, bedroom furniture)
APPAREL (men's shirts and sweaters, women's dresses, jewelry)
TRANSPORTATION (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance)
MEDICAL CARE (prescription drugs and medical supplies, physicians' services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services)
RECREATION (televisions, toys, pets and pet products, sports equipment, admissions);
EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATION (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and accessories);
OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral expenses).

The CPI-U is used by the Treasury Department to set the interest rates on I Bonds.

I Savings Bonds

How do I Bonds earn interest?

Interest on an I Bond rates is a combination of two rates:
1.A fixed rate of return which remains the same throughout the life of the I Bond

and
2.A variable inflation rate which we calculate twice a year, based on changes in the nonseasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for all items, including food and energy (CPI-U for March compared with the CPI-U for September of the same year, and then CPI-U for September compared with the CPI-U for March of the following year).

If you feel the BLS is making things up as they go along, you do have recourse:

Point of Contact for Complaints Concerning Information Quality

Affected persons who believe that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has disseminated information that does not meet its guidelines or those of the Department of Labor or Office of Management and Budget, and who wish to file a formal complaint may send their complaint by mail, e-mail, or fax to:

Division of Management Systems
Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Department of Labor
2 Massachusetts Avenue, N.E., Room 4080
Washington, D.C., 20212-0001
E-mail: [e-mail]
Fax: [phone]

Complainants should:

Identify themselves and indicate where and how they can be reached;
Identify, as specifically as possible, the information in question;
Indicate how they are affected by the information about which they are complaining;
Carefully describe the nature of the complaint, including an explanation of why they believe the information does not comply with OMB, Departmental, or agency-specific guidelines; and
Describe the change requested and the reason why the agency should make the change.

Failure to include this information may result in a complainant not receiving a response to the complaint or greatly reducing the usefulness or timeliness of any response. Complainants should be aware that they bear the burden of establishing that they are affected persons and showing the need and justification for the correction they are seeking, including why the information being complained about does not comply with applicable guidelines.

Full disclosure: I do not work for the BLS.

I hope this helps.

Best wishes.