Solar panel costs predicted to fall 10% a year

[inanna]

Source: The Guardian

Tuesday 26 January 2016 15.00 GMT

Solar power costs are tumbling so fast the technology is likely to fast outstrip mainstream energy forecasts.

That is the conclusion of Oxford University researchers, based on a new forecasting model published in Research Policy.

Since the 1980s, panels to generate electricity from sunshine have got 10% cheaper each year. That is likely to continue, the study said, putting solar on course to meet 20% of global energy needs by 2027.

By contrast, even in its “high renewable” scenario, the International Energy Agency assumes solar panels will generate just 16% of electricity in 2050. Its widely cited future energy scenarios in previous years failed to predict solar’s rapid growth.

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/26/solar-panel-costs-predicted-to-fall-10-a-year

[AllyCat]

1. Still out of range for our family, but we are watching closely.

Really want to install at some point.

[Frank Cannon]

4. In 10 years, they'll be free! n/t

[AllyCat]

7. Dat's some funny maths there Frank

[elljay]

10. Off the Grid

I'm waiting until they market an off-the-grid system. If the power grid goes down, as happens occasionally where I live, I would like the solar cells on my roof to power my house. I don't think that is too much to ask for! I have heard rumors that Tesla is working with a solar company to incorporate its batteries into a home system. When that becomes available I will consider the switch.

[Duppers]

14. Same here.

[mahina]

23. Solar City. Tesla is majority owner. Batteries, and the big good thing is that

They'll replace it for you if it fails. You pay a fixed monthly for a period of X years and when the time is up you can settle up and keep it, put a new system up or they'll take it down.
(A lease basically)

The only downer is that they don't seem super committed to every market...just pulled out of NV when there was a fidget w net metering there. (Sorry I don't remember specifics)

I'm looking too and I would love that deal, being as we are in the middle of the ocean, big weather systems, tsunamis etc. However I bet they won't stay here if Nextera buys our monopoly utility.
Edited to add link http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-770-million-richer-after-big-day-for-tesla-solarcity-2015-12-16p

[Massacure]

35. Nevada's public service commission screwed the pooch there

They basically said utilities are allowed to rebate excess solar energy at the wholesale rate instead of the retail rate. So instead of receiving $0.11 for each kwh sent to the grid, residents only receive $0.02. Additionally the connection charge is increasing from $12 a month to $38 a month. The changes are implemented over a five year period - with 20% of the connection fee increase taking effect each year and 20% of the excess energy rebate cut taking effect each year.

[James48]

2. Prices are within reach

for more and more people.


A small, energy efficient home can do the majority of the electricity they need (a 5 KW system) for under $10,000 these days.

Here is an example of a grid-tie system that can power an efficient small household:


http://sunelec.com/pv-systems/grid-tie-systems/5000-watt-grid-tie-system.html

That one is about $7K plus installation cost.

You should hit the cost-payback at ten years or less, depending on the price of electricity in your area.

[One_Life_To_Give]

3. Installation cost hasn't been falling so fast.

IMO At $1/Watt for the panels, that is not the determining factor in people's decision. But the installation cost at $4/Watt.

[ProfessorGAC]

6. $4 per Watt?

Really? I had no idea that the installed cost was that high. Even with no electric bill we're talking about a 5 year undiscounted payback.

Except for the greenness of it, it's not an investment most business would make.

[Kelvin Mace]

8. Yes, that is about right

$4-$5 per watt installed, before any tax credits are factored in.

It would have been helpful if they would change the credit to a rebate, which means you could sign over your rebate when the array is installed, which would reduced the cost to about $3 a watt, less if your state offers a rebate as well.

I was fortunate in that I was financially in a position to take advantage of the state and federal tax credit (meaning I could pay up front, and get it back at tax time), and got an array for about $1.50 a watt installed.

While the PV panels themselves are pretty cheap, they have not come up with a cheaper way to install them. Installation requires mounting brackets and a specialized knowledge to integrate the array into your electrical system, plus the actual labor to get them on your roof. There may be additional costs to bring your roof and/or electrical service up to spec. There are also considerations of having a roof that faces the correct direction (South is best in our hemisphere) and an absence of trees/buildings casting shadows on the array.

Curently, we are getting about 20% of our power from our neighborhood fusion reactor 8 light minutes up the road. That is pretty good considering we drive a Nissan Leaf, so we are also providing "fuel" for our car in addition to our home needs. During the Spring and Summer I am hoping to get thet portion up to 60%-80% of our usage.

[ProfessorGAC]

9. I'm Jealous, Kelvin

I've got too many trees to make it efficient enough, especially in northern Illinois where the sun angle is less favorable.

Like i said, i envy your position.

[Kelvin Mace]

12. We really lucked out when we moved.

My wife and I were looking for a single story house since she has MS and has had a few bad falls on the stairs. We found a place on a big lot with a car port facing South, that went for a quite reasonable price since it had an easement bisecting the lot. Without the easement, the house probably would have cost twice as much as it did. It has some other faults, but none were a deal-breaker for us.

We do have a few tall pine trees on the West side throwing some shade, but the are spindly and probably not going to survive the next ice storm with all the rain we've had. Once they are gone, we will probably see a 15% improvement in power production.

If you can find a job down this way (NC), home prices are a LOT more reasonable than the rest of the country.

So, what is the wind like? If you can't do solar, a 10 kW wind turbine can cost the same and produce about 10-30 kWh depending on location.

[ProfessorGAC]

16. I Don't Live In The Country

I don't see the city giving me a variance for wind. We get our share of wind, but i live right in the middle of town, so the laminar flow effect starts at the rooftops, which is 14 to 30 feet up. Probably not an option for anybody in my city. Might be for the city itself as it annexed a bunch of land up to 10 miles to the east. All farm land today.

[FLPanhandle]

5. Also the efficiency of the panels has gone up each year too.

Combined together, solar is becoming a economic alternative even in the era of cheap oil. If oil prices had stayed at over $100 / barrel then I suspect solar growth would be even faster.

[pablo_marmol]

26. *And* the efficiency of energy storage will continue to improve.

Looks like the fact that I have to wait before I can afford to go solar will be alright.

[jpak]

11. Solar powered mini split heat pumps - wave of the future for heating and cooling...

under $5000

[Kelvin Mace]

13. That's going to require a very unique house design

to get the panels facing just right to maximize sunlight.

Is that per room cost?

[jpak]

17. No - the panels can be placed anywhere on any house

It will heat a modest home - not a McMansion

yup

[Kelvin Mace]

19. Well, I have seen these setups

but they is usually a heating unit in each room, so you can close off doors and only heat where you need. But what does the $5000 cover? A single one heating unit and how many panels? What are they PV panels rated at?

A system of that type would be okay for heating the home during the day, but not at night. Also, are they tying the PVs into a grid tie system, or directly into the heating system?

[trillion]

24. The panels aren't going to be outside much longer. They can also be powered inside with light.

Todays solar panels are 10 times more efficient than they used to be. They used to waste most of the light that hit their surface.

As they get more efficient they will get smaller and end up in a box instead of on a roof. They will be able to be activated by a light bulb that they power. You can do it right now with your solar garden lights, but those little ones don't generate enough power to be useful past stand alone lights.

[Kelvin Mace]

25. PV cells have a LONG way to go

before they are anywhere near that efficient. The most promising tech is a module that can process light in the UV and IR spectrum.

I have solar garden lights and they can manage to burn for 5-6 hours after sitting all day in the light. On cloudy/rainy days I am lucky to get 2-3 hours of light after dusk.

The most efficient commercial panels are about 22% efficient. There are panels that hit 40%+ efficiency, but they are insanely expensive and are used for space craft.

[trillion]

32. True, but we will get there and before the next decade.

The biggest improvements I've been reading have to do with using more of the energy hitting the surface of the panels. 10 years ago they were only using 5 percent of it.

[Kelvin Mace]

33. I don't know where you are getting your stats

but we had 10% efficient PVs 20 years ago



What has fallen dramatically is the price per watt, which has fallen from about $5 to less than $1 today. Unfortunately, installation is still coming in at around $3+ per watt.

This DoE timeline shows commercial 10% thin film panels in 2000, with 30% crystal panels (in the lab) as far back 1994.

You may need to update your reading list.

[trillion]

34. Here's something from today, but I read something a year and a half ago that made me

absolutely not buy yet.

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/4803

This is 40.7 percent which is way better than the 22-25%

I have not time right now but will keep in mind to find the articles I'm going off of. that told me wait a bit longer and I'd get way more for my money. Have to drive home now.

I should point out that none of what I was reading were at market yet.

[Kelvin Mace]

36. The 40+% PVs

are mostly in the labs or on the ISS. They are WAY out of the market price-wise. It will be some years before you see them at today's price points ($4-$5/watt installed).

Does you state offer tax credits? The major issue that caused me to pull the trigger and buy was that my state's tax credit were expiring on Dec 31st, and the price would have to fall a LONG way to make up for the loss of that 35% credit.

Between the state and federal credit my final cost will be around $1.50/watt installed.

[trillion]

38. Good job! I would have for that.

[Travis_0004]

27. What

What you are describing is impossible. Energy can not be created out of nowhere.

If you had a 100% efficent light shinong shining only on a 100% solar cell you could shine the light on the cell and have that light work forever, but both will never be 100% efficent.

You couldnt even power a radio off that indoor setup as it would take away energy and the whole thing would die out.

The only way it works is if light from an outside source helps out, like sunlight through windows, but at that point just put the cells outside.

[trillion]

30. You clearly aren't following free energy on you tube.

[Kelvin Mace]

37. No, TANSTAAFL is a universal constant.

No free energy.

[trillion]

31. Newtons 3rd law doesn't matter when you're talking chemicals.

Actually it doesn't matter with a whole lot of things. Crowds, etc.

[Kablooie]

15. Damn all these ancient shade trees that surround my house!

[daleo]

18. We put up solar panels last year

It's fun to track the production of the panels. For me it's worth it just for that, but I'm a physics/math nerd anyway.

[Kelvin Mace]

20. It was an education in power usage that everyone should dabble in

It was fun crunching the numbers, making changes to the house (replacing incandescent and CFLs with LED lighting, adding a Nest thermostat, and ceiling fans) then seeing the effect on the bill. The previous owners where bruning 1.5 mWh in the Summer, and we got it down 800 kWh, but that includes charging a Nissan Leaf for daily driving.

How big is your array? Ours has been online only since 10/30 and has averaged about 11kWh per day from the 7.15kw setup, but we have had a lot of rainy/cloudy days so far. We are hoping the Spring/Summer days will boost this average top more than double current averages.

[daleo]

21. Sixteen panels, about 275 watts each

So, about 4.4 kwatts at max. I live at the 53rd parallel of latitude, so output varies a lot during the year. At midsummer, we can get 30+ kwhrs per day, midwinter only 4 or 5. Today, we probably hit 7 or 8, I estimate. Over the course of a year, it has been designed to be net neutral, which is about 4500 kwhrs for our house. It looks like it should hit that mark, but we won't know for sure until next July, as our system first became operational last July 14.

Like you, we went nearly entirely LED. We hang our clothes outside during non-winter months as well. You do become very conscious of your power use age.

[Kelvin Mace]

22. We just hit 1 mWh of power produced on Friday

with the array coming on line on 10/29. 10/30 was our best day with 23kWh, and until yesterday, we didn't see above 20. The sun has finally come out two days straight and we pulled 21 yesterday and 22 today.

We are using 275 watt panels as well, and Enphase microinverters. I love the web-based monitoring software, but wish that utilty companies would wake up and join the 21st century by making it possible to monitor your whole house's energy consumption. I think it would wake a lot of people up to the money trickling out of their pockets.

[daleo]

28. I have the enphase sysem too.

It sounds like our systems are quite similar. Our best place to put the panels was on a detached garage. It has a north-south center-line, so our panels are actually facing east and west, with a 30 degree slope, roughly.

But that has proven to work quite well. In mid-summer we have very long days, 18 hours or so, so the sun can be quite high even in early morning and late afternoon. Conversely, in mid-winter, days are short and the sun doesn't get very high. We have a grid-tie system, so half the year we are a net producer, and half the year we are a net consumer.

[Kelvin Mace]

29. I look forward to seing what the next six months bring

since like you I hope to to wind up with net zero consumption.

Another good day today with 21.6.