Bernie Sanders’s Big Turnout Problem: He’s Reliant on Infrequent Voters

[kennetha]

Source: New York Times

It’s common to talk about the turnout challenge facing Donald Trump, who clearly fares well among those who don’t vote regularly. But the candidate with the biggest turnout challenge in this cycle is probably Bernie Sanders.

Mr. Sanders appears to be extraordinarily dependent on turnout from infrequent voters, even more than Democrats have recently been in general elections, and maybe more than Barack Obama in the 2008 Iowa caucuses — mainly because his support is so strong among the young.

As Mr. Obama can attest, you can turn out and win with irregular voters — and Mr. Sanders could prove to have the enthusiasm and organization needed to do the same. In one example, as Jason Horowitz and Yamiche Alcindor reported in The Times, the Sanders campaign has plans to send rental cars, vans and buses to carry students who are from Iowa back to their hometowns for caucus day.

But the scale of Mr. Sanders’s turnout challenge is unusually large. Compared with the supporters of Hillary Clinton, his are far less likely to report that they intend to vote; they have less history of voting; and they come from demographic categories who turn out in low numbers. This all adds considerable uncertainty to the pre-election polls, which always struggle to determine who is or is not likely to vote.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/26/upshot/bernie-sanders-is-very-dependent-on-infrequent-voters.html

---

So it could be that Sanders "underperforms" big time in Iowa and the "revolution" is over before noon.

[merrily]

1. LOL!

[retrowire]

2. Agreed.

Bernie is beyond what Obama did. Bernie's already broken a few of Obama's records. gee whiz.

[merrily]

8. Moreover, the revolution is not going to end on Super Tuesday.

No matter what happens, millions have now heard Bernie and no one can unring that clear bell.

[William769]

22. Wow! your're smart! Even smarter than your own candidate.

I'm surprised he hasn't hired you to run his campaign!

Bernie Sanders: I won't get as many votes as Obama in '08



Washington (CNN)—Bernie Sanders said Tuesday that he clearly needs a strong voter turnout to win in Iowa on Monday, but he has no expectation of reaching the high-water mark set by then-Sen. Barack Obama in 2008.

"Obama in 2008 ran a campaign which is really going to stay in the history books. It was an unbelievable campaign. In places they ran out of ballots, as I understand," Sanders told reporters after a meeting with the United Steelworkers in Des Moines, Iowa. "The turnout was so extraordinary, nobody expected it. Do I think in this campaign that we are going to match that? I would love to see us do that, I hope we can."

But he added, "Frankly, I don't think we can. What Obama did in 2008 is extraordinary."

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/bernie-sanders-barack-obama-2008-iowa/index.html

Now let's see if your smart enough to understand the schooling you just got.

Have a nice day!

[daleanime]

28. And your reaction if he had said that he would get more?

I get it, I get it. Bernie's evil, and we should do nothing.



No, and not happening. That is unless Hillary fails to lose the primary, then we will see a depressed democratic turnout.

Have a great day.

[KamaAina]

33. Reading comprehension is your friend.

Bernie's already broken a few of Obama's records.

Nowhere does that imply that he or the poster thinks that he'll break that particular record of Obama's for turnout in Iowa.

[retrowire]

37. geez an article with my candidate being a modest gentleman.

I feel so "schooled" lol

http://time.com/4056925/bernie-sanders-obama-fundraising/

and that's more contributors. not contributions. important distinction there.

next time, don't come off as so eager to prove someone wrong. it seems desperate. besides, I was just minding my own business when you came out of nowhere with that. lol chill out.

also, you misspelled "you're smart" in your subject line. XD

[davidpdx]

41. In terms of records, he is talking about the number of donors

which has been well documented in the media. So please go back to hiding in your nasty little cubby-hole website with all your buddies.

[SammyWinstonJack]

42. Rude much? YOU, have a nice day.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

32. Aw, crap. I guess I'll have to move to Russia now!

[merrily]

36. OT: Love your sig line. I never saw that quote of his before. Lord, but he was witty, wasn't he?

When people talk about which politicians you would want to have a drink with, I think of politicians who are witty and, as people in Massachusetts might say, "wicked smaht." Others pick a lowest common denominator type like Dimson, whose wit is exemplified by coming up with a nickname like turd blossom. I've never understood that and probably never will.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

38. Yeah I love that quote - he was warning us!

[Dawson Leery]

3. We can say for sure that these infrequent voters will sit out the 2018 midterms

just as they did in 2010 and 2014.

[Tarheel_Dem]

15. ^^^ THIS ^^^. Which really defeats the purpose of all the "enthusiasm" every 4 years.

[daleanime]

29. If they sit out this election, you can guarantee that...

why does that idea make you happy?

[kristopher]

35. Really? You can say that "for sure"?

What if we focus on enacting automatic universal voter registration and other programs targeting the low voter turnout problem. Do you think our recent level of voter turnout is the norm in a democracy? Do you WANT it to remain that way?

[immoderate]

4. Suppose he stimulates all the "disillusioned" voters, who are tired of voting for plutocrats?

--imm

[azurnoir]

5. .......

[Kip Humphrey]

6. Message to NYT: disenfranchised voters now have someone to vote for. Feel the Bern!

[getagrip_already]

7. and texas would be a blue state...

If eligible and infrequent voting hispanics and youth would actually vote.

Like the old saying goes, you can't fight a war with the troops you want, you have to win a war with the troops you have.....

Iowa and New Hampshire aren't real states anyway. They are driven by the fringe. They tend to push both parties to the extremes, which (unless you are a tea party enthusiast in either party) tends to get parties into trouble in the generals.

Don't panic until super tuesday. No matter which side you are on.

[merrily]

11. Um...

http://www.270towin.com/states/Iowa

http://www.270towin.com/states/New_Hampshire

[getagrip_already]

16. proves my point..

They frequently pick the wrong candidate.

[merrily]

17. I thought your point was those states were to Hillary's left. They're not.

[getagrip_already]

23. I was referring to primary voters

not general election voters. They tend to be the party activists (especially in Iowa with that crazy caucus system - standing for hours to vote is only for the hardy).

Iowa is probably more conservative than most states, even for D's, but not during the primaries, which is what the article was pointing to.

[merrily]

24. A state going red in Presidentials shows nothing about how left the state is or isn't overall? ok.

I can tell you with no doubt that New Hampshire is purple overall.

[getagrip_already]

26. again, you are talking general elections

The D primary in NH is not purple. It's also not moderate. Most primaries aren't.

Besides, Bernie gets a boost for being local. But even without that, the NH primaries tend to favor candidates they perceive as being further to the edge.

In November, not so much.

[merrily]

27. The D primary in NH is centrist, as one would expect in a purple state.

[johnnyrocket]

9. If these voters weren't infrequent: WE WOULDN'T HAVE THE FUCKED UP CONGRESS...

that we have right now. Imagine how nice congress would be if these people simply came out to vote every time.

[johnnyrocket]

10. 'Infrequent voter' doesn't mean a voter who NEVER votes...they need a reason.

Not the insane and delusional reasons why the rabid teatards always vote. They need a rational reason to get motivated to vote.

And they just might have one now.

[nyabingi]

13. Hillary's supporters are now

at the point of trying to comfort each other lol. They see what's about to happen.

[eggplant]

14. Infrequent = Under 22.

They've never bothered to vote in a presidential election before. Being underage is no excuse.

[getagrip_already]

18. meh, I have 3 voting age kids...

And they will all vote because we are pains in their butt about it (it's one of the many services we offer).

They will all vote for bernie, but that isn't the point. The point is that once they get started, they will continue.

So all these infrequent voters have families and role models. Where is the push?

[eggplant]

19. I think you missed my point.

Kids under 22 weren't old enough to vote in the last one, thus they are "infrequent". They can't call them likely voters yet, so they get to exclude them in one sweeping motion.

I would expect a LOT of 18-22 year olds coming out to vote for Bernie (and I hope they do!) -- but expect the press to ignore them and be surprised after.

[getagrip_already]

25. well, I guess, but...

People under 25 have a lower turnout in every election cycle. So they are infrequent because that age group votes below the norm, not because any one voter doesn't turn out every election.

So I hope a lot turn out to vote for bernie, and stay hooked on voting in general. Bernie isn't my candidate, but all of our candidates need a steady and reliable voter pool.....

[saturnsring]

20. why do people post primary material in forums other than primary

[Bernin]

21. New York Times Pffft!

About as credible as the Enquirer.

Actually, I would believe articles in the Enquirer long before anything out of the NYT fish wrapper.

Can you say Judith Miller???

[Dovidoff]

30. Millenials will show up

On Twitter.

[Bernin]

31. Online Voting.

Brilliant idea.
Certainly just as secure as the Diebold voting machines we use now.

[olddots]

34. The way the main stream media finds out how it it failing

is by failing it's readers/veiwers and printing payed for bull shit that is not too big to fail like nothing has failed before .

[Populist_Prole]

39. Translation of the article: "Why don't you guys just give up already?" n/t

[Pastiche423]

40. gmfao!

That's a problem for Bernie?

[bhikkhu]

43. I know a few Sanders supporters who wouldn't dream of missing the vote

I suspect that's going to be a strength for him rather than a weakness.

[The Second Stone]

44. Let's hope that Bernie's supporters put in a great effort to get those voters to the

polls. It is what make elections happen.

Make your GOTV (get out the vote) calls, make them nice and get them down there. It will be a good habit for the campaign workers and voters by the time the nominee needs the vote to beat the fascists.