Trump breaks 50% in national support for the first time

[brooklynite]

Source: YouGov

Showing little sign of a "ceiling", Donald Trump has only grown in support with the exit of Ben Carson and Marco Rubio's collapse

In the last two weeks, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has won more delegates in primaries and caucuses, even while his opponents have launched new attacks and questions have been raised about his supporters. The week’s Economist/YouGov Poll finds Trump still at the top of GOP voters’ preference with a wider lead, while Florida Senator Marco Rubio seems most damaged by the two weeks of attacks and counter-attacks.

This is the first time Trump has garnered the support of a majority of Republican primary voters nationwide. YouGov's February 24-27 survey marked his previous high, at 44% support.

Two weeks ago, the national Economist/YouGov Poll showed Rubio and Texas Senator Ted Cruz battling for second place behind Trump, in a field which still included retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (who has since endorsed Trump). This week, Rubio is battling Ohio Governor John Kasich for last place, with half the support Republican voters give to Cruz. He is behind both Cruz and Kasich when Republican voters are asked for their second choice. And only 19% of Republican voters would be enthusiastic about a Rubio nomination (in contrast, half would be enthusiastic if Trump were the nominee).



Read more: https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/03/14/trump-rises-national-support-rubio-falls-and-carso/

[Roland99]

1. Up to the establishment at the Convention at this point

Either accept the monster they created or kick him aside and nominate their own.

[roguevalley]

3. this is only among republicans right?

[Human101948]

7. Yes, but it's likely that number will increase as he beats CRuz and Rubio...

The moment to be very, very afraid is when he gets over 45% of all voters!

We’ve got an unpopular set of presidential candidates this year– Bernie Sanders is the only candidate in either party with a net-positive favorability rating — but Trump is the most unpopular of all. His favorability rating is 33 percent, as compared with an unfavorable rating of 58 percent, for a net rating of -25 percentage points. By comparison Hillary Clinton, whose favorability ratings are notoriously poor, has a 42 percent favorable rating against a 50 percent unfavorable rating, for a net of -8 points. Those are bad numbers, but nowhere near as bad as Trump’s.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

[underpants]

2. Oh I think more than 50% of Republicans are dumber than that

[Jack Rabbit]

5. To get a better gage of Republican stpidity . . .

. . . add Trump and Cruz together and then athn 50% of what's left over.

[truthisfreedom]

6. 50% of the US population has an IQ of 100 or lower

By definition.

[mountain grammy]

9. Agree!

[ericson00]

4. the Trump "ceiling" delusion the GOPe has had

is not much different than the Perot delusion they've had re Clinton v. Bush I; a way to convince themselves everything is fine.

[Attorney in Texas]

8. In both parties, "establishment support" was perceived as positive when it has been a big negative.

Jeb went from the front of the pack to dropping out with the anchor of "establishment support" weighing around his neck.

Rubio was the rising candidate until Jeb dropped out and the anchor of "establishment support" was transferred to Rubio's neck and he immediately failed.

It will be interesting to see how much of the "establishment support" goes to Cruz and to Kasich and how that burden torpedoes their campaigns.

Never in the history of the Democratic Party has a non-incumbent candidate enjoyed as much "establishment support" as Hillary. What good has it done her (other than the DNC sabotaging the campaigns of Webb, Chafee, O'Malley, etc.)?

[Z_California]

10. The headline is misleading

"among Republican primary voters" is how the sample is described.

I don't know anything about yougov.com but this headline makes me wonder.

[WhiteHat]

11. Oh my.

I can hardly wait until Trump faces a real presidential candidate, not a joke.

Even the GOP knows that Trump is going to be DEVASTATED by any Democratic candidate. They're even campaigning against him themselves. They want to avoid the COMPLETE HUMILIATION he'll suffer, because it would be bad for the party and for the right wing "movement" as a whole.

Bring it on. Bring it Donald, shoot your best, do your dirtiest.

Donald, you're a big fat TARGET, easy money, dead meat, and the death of Conservatism with a capital C.

Poor Donald.

Has there ever been such a victim of his own ego?

[Spitfire of ATJ]

12. Keep in mind Republicans make up only a quarter of the public....

He's only getting HALF of that so his support is about 12% of the public.

Put in perspective 5% believe contrails are full of mind controlling drugs (of which THEY are immune,...of course,....because of their vast intellect) and 4% believe lizard people are running the government. 9% believe fluoride is a government plot.

[PSPS]

13. That's 50% of Republicans, not 50% of the voting population

That's 50% of what comprises the GOP "base" which consists of xenophobes, racists and billionaires. Trump (or whoever wins the GOP nomination) will still lose very badly in the general election regardless of who wins the democratic nomination.

[sofa king]

14. You are so right.

But 50% of Republicans happens to be really close to the magic 23% of all Americans who are right-wing authoritarians, people who cannot think for themselves and therefore automatically align with socially dominant conservatives who play upon their fear of change.

It's a little bit scary, though. With the support of RWAs, George Bush got close enough to steal it twice. Without their support, McCain and Romney lost.

The racist doofuses spell the difference between victory and defeat in America--and for the moment they like Trump. That's very bad for us, balanced only by the fact that Donald Trump is to toxic that he may motivate threatened groups (like all minorities and most women) to come out and vote against him.

Democrats don't win the White House through fear and negativity; Republicans most definitely do. Something to consider and worry about.

[agnostic102]

15. Honestly national polls

In my opinion dont mean as much as general elections. The reason being that since state vote on a individual basis.. winning one around of states could give you momentum to the next states where previously u werent doing as well..

Thats why a lot of people in californai hating primarys.. because essentially after iowa, new hamphsire , south carolina, and basically super Tuesday its usually over.. an example of this guilinie was doing VERY well in national polls in 2008.. but after the debates and losing the first three states.. by the time it got to florida where he was building hes fire wall.. it was already over..