Affordable Model 3 is Tesla's biggest test yet

[Zorro]

Source: AP

Tesla Motors built its reputation making sporty, sexy and very expensive electric cars.

It's staking its future on something more affordable.

Tesla plans to unveil its Model 3 electric car Thursday night at its Los Angeles design studio. At a starting price of $35,000 — before federal and state government incentives — the Model 3 is less than half the cost of Tesla's previous models. The car is expected to have a range of at least 200 miles when fully charged, about double what drivers get from competitors in its price range, such as the Nissan Leaf and BMW i3.

The Model 3 is the most serious test yet of 13-year-old Tesla's ability to go from a niche player to a full-fledged automaker. It could be the car that finally makes electrics mainstream — or customers could be scared off by Tesla's limited number of stores and service centers. Either way, the Model 3 is already changing the industry, spurring competitors to speed development of electric cars and improve their battery range.

Read more: https://www.yahoo.com/tech/affordable-model-3-teslas-biggest-110520607.html

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I think these cars are going to be ridiculously popular. People have been camping out in front of Tesla showrooms.

[Blue_Adept]

1. Considering I barely drive 100 miles per week

I'd be all over one of these things. Course, my price range is in the 20k range. I'll bide my time, but one will be mine.

[Kelvin Mace]

3. As I mention below, look for a used Leaf

or a Chevy Volt. The Volt has the advantage of an on-board gasoline generator for when you exhaust its 30 mile electric range. You are a perfect customer for either and they would be in your price range.

That or lease.

[Fuddnik]

6. A year ago, I got a 2015 Volt for under $20k.

I saw it advertised at 17k, and wondered how they got to that price. I'd taken one for a test drive a couple of years earlier and it was 42k.

In a nutshell, after all incentives and rebates, and considering a $4,000 trade-in it was $17k. I got $2,000 for my 12 year old Toyota. I then leased the car for $145 per month for 39 months, and can buy it for $7,000 after that.

My wife drives it mostly, for work and shopping. The 46 mile range on a charge is more than adequate, and in a year, it's used 19 gallons of gas. Most of that purposely so the gas doesn't go bad.

I love it.

[Kelvin Mace]

12. A LOT of deals where made for the 2015 models

since the newer MY cars were arriving with better range (50 miles v. 30) and a nicer interior re-design.

[Schema Thing]

7. A friend of mine, a car dealer, always has very low mileage Leafs for 9.5 - 12K

I so wish I didn't drive quite as much per day... I'd buy one in a heartbeat.

[Kelvin Mace]

13. The Leafs range is REALITSICALLY 50-70 miles

depending on how you drive and the weather. It works best in in mild weather in city driving or averaging around 45 MPH. Again, if you can recharge at work or have a level 3 charger in your area, it is a bit more flexible. Setting that aside, Chevy Volts are the best compromise when you need range.

[Schema Thing]

28. yep... my Prius is a great all-around compromise.

I am continually amazed at how much I can haul with it!

[Kelvin Mace]

38. The new Prius Prime

is supposed to get 20 miles electric, which is a bit disappointing in light of the Volt's 50, but I forgive a lot since the Prius blazed the trail. I commented to my wife that 10 years ago seeing a Prius on the road was like seeing a Unicorn. Today, I can't walk through a parking lot without seeing 4-5. Now it is the EVs which are Unicorns. More common out West, I am told, but rarer here in NC. I have seen four "in the wild", and one Tesla and one Volt. Give us 5 more years and they will become more commonplace.

[still_one]

44. One nice thing is American Car Companies have the edge over all electric cars verses international

competitors. Toyota is tying to see if they can get hydrogen fuel cells to catch on, but that will be a long haul since the infrastructure isn't even there

[Kelvin Mace]

47. HEVs are not going to make it as a passenger car

It is just not economical and even if you get past the massive waste of energy needed to make a kg of H2, there is that whole, "Do I really want to get T-boned at an intersection sitting on a tank of hydrogen at 10,000 psi?" question.

I can expend 60 kWh worth of electricity to make a kilo of H2 that will move my car 45-55 miles, or I can put the same amount of electricity into a battery of an EV and drive 180 miles. Also, I can have 20 supercharger stations for the cost of a single H2 station.

The economics just isn't there.

[still_one]

49. Also, if you get in an accident with and HEV, no smoking, though they do say

the tank is re-enforced. Still I agree with you. I also avoid blimps that use hydrogen as their fuel.

[Kelvin Mace]

50. Hydrogen blimps are probably safer

It's not the H2 that worries me, it is any gas in a tank at 10,000 psi. The there is this fun thing called "hydrogen embrittlement".

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_embrittlement

[still_one]

51. Agreed, but also anything under that kind of pressure if breached from an accident is

going to exert tremendous force, and if a spark occurs, boom

[Kelvin Mace]

2. "Affordable" is relative

For many, $35,000 is unreachable. That said, EVs are one of the few cars that it makes sense to lease, since by the time your lease is up, there will be a better car (more range, more features) for about the same price, and the leased vehicles then goes into the used market and are bought substantially cheaper. Right now it is easy to find a Nissan Leaf with 30-40K miles for under $12,000. This car is perfect for daily commutes of under 60 miles round trip, more if you can charge at work. I bought one with 9300 miles in 2014 and it was $20,000 cheaper than a new one.

EV is the future.

[whatthehey]

5. Median new car price is about 32k - this (starts at) about 27.5k net

It's therefore in the cheaper half of the new car continuum, ignoring any variable state rebates. This and the Bolt could be the next step changes for EVs. Still won't get the Luddites and the "but I drive 400 miles to Grandma's twice a year!" loons who can't understand they could rent a Ferrari for the trip with the gas savings the rest of the year, or the budget drag racer wannabes who put up with less performance from Mustangs and Camaros etc because they can't afford an S (or quite possibly because it doesn't make that seemingly necessary compensatory loud farting noise), but they will start appealing to the rest who have either genuine, or more often perceived, issues with affordable EV range to date.

[Kelvin Mace]

14. Again, in my opinion an EV

is one of the few times leasing makes sense. I drive my Leaf daily and get all my errands done without a problem. I probably could persuade my boss to make a socket available if I paid for the work, and I would be able to range even further.

BTW, the $27.5K figure includes the $7500 federal rebate. Then you need to see what you state offers.

My rule of thumb on the claimed range of EVs is to take what they advertise and discount it by 25% for real world performance. So, I would look at the Model 3, '17 Leaf and the Bolt to realistically have 150 mile ranges, not the 200 they are touting. Though Chevy may be the exception, since its Volt gets pretty much the 30/50 it claims for the older and newer models.

[whatthehey]

22. I went Leaf firstthen S so I'm reasonably au fait

Both have widely varying ranges. I easily got 110 miles in a two year old Leaf in Spring weather by just avoiding high speeds (I lived in a city at the time so no difficulty). Heater use and speed killed my Leaf range, as I expected and understood it would, but a lot of FUD spreaders overstate that saying you only get 35 in winter and other nonsense. I suppose if you set both temp and cruise to 90 it might be that bad, but not sensibly. I typically got 60 in Winter with moderate heat use (the seats and wheel heat obviate much of the need unless it gets really cold). MN and the like will be a bit worse. I was in KY at the time and while we got some cold snaps, single digits and below were very rare.

My commute now is longer and higher speed. Heater use has some impact on the S but the range hides it. Speed does too but much less as a ratio to the Leaf, likely due to the higher powered battery.

The Volt BTW did very well on both range and degradation (a tough issue for the non-TMS Leaf especially in desert climates but even my mild area and low miles saw appreciable loss over time) partly because they engineered huge guardbands that the battery would initially never charge or deplete to. With my shorter commute a Volt would have been a pure EV for me except for long roadtrips and I wanted to go that route but I'm both large and hemiplegiac and that futuristic dash design left me unable to comfortably get in and out, so I went Leaf. Never regretted it. Excellent cars suitable for many more drivers than believe so, comfortable, spacious (especially with seat travel extender), and mine cost precisely zero in maintenance (dealer did tire rotations free) over 3 years and averaged 4.5 m/KWh so about 2c/mile. Can't say that about any ICE. The S is less frugal of course, but I still spend less on fuel than a Prius even with low gas prices and get the performance and gadgetry of Italian exotica to boot.

[wordpix]

10. can you charge a Leaf at a regular outlet with extension cord?

My bro has a Tesla and has a special charging station in his driveway for the special plug-in. I can't do that (I live in a condo with strict rules) but I could run an extension cord from inside my house. ????

[Kelvin Mace]

11. You can, it just takes longer

A 110v 15 amp standard socket (like found everywhere) will recharge a totally depleted battery in about 9-10 hours. So, you plug in when you get home and it is charged overnight. A level 2 charging station uses 220-240 at 40 amps and will recharge the same battery in 4-5 hours.

A level 2 charging station costs $500-$1000 installed, however, there are cables that can plug into a dryer socket which are cheaper, you just have to install another plug near to your car.

[caraher]

4. GM is also entering the game

The Chevy Bolt EV is supposed to be offered at a price similar to the Model 3 and have a range over 200 miles. And may be available sooner.

[Kelvin Mace]

15. Definitely looks like sooner

since it is already entering production with an expectation to deliver later this year. The Telsa 3 has already slid well into 2017, maybe later.

[still_one]

8. The cars at the earliest will be available in 2017, and this who will get first priority will be

those that are previous Tesla owners, and those living in California, so for a lot of other people, it might not be available until the end of 2017 or even 2018. That is a long time. No one knows how long the federal tax credit will remain, since it is dependent on the number of cars sold, and when a certain number have been sold, that tax credit may go away.

The Chevrolet Bolt will be available at the end of this year, a full year before the Tesla

Another issue regarding pure electric cars, which isn't talked about very much is how long the batteries will last, how much replacement batteries will cost, can the old batteries be recycled?

Even though 200 miles is a respectable range, until more charging stations are available, and that means DC Fast charging stations, that may still present an issue for prospective buyers. If the all electric cars do sell as well as you suggest, I would estimate that there would be adequate charging stations within 5 years, and maybe even less time if all the car manufacturers work together to construct the nationwide charging station

[Kelvin Mace]

18. Actually, it has been discussed quite a bit

The Leaf battery is guaranteed at least 75% capacity for 8 years or 100,000 miles. A new battery (same capacity) will set you back $5K with trade in. They do plan on recycling the batteries, and several pilot programs are in the works for how to best do that. Even a battery depleted to 50% capacity would make a great storage battery for residential solar/wind setups.

As to range, it depends on how much driving you do daily. As I explain above I discount range claims by 25% to get a more realistic "real world" number. So, that 200 miles is more realistically 150. For day to day driving, most American (about 88%) drive less than 35 miles a day, so even first generation EVs can handle that. For people who routinely drive more, you need a hybrid like the Volt, or will need to wait until more superchargers are in service (though with Tesla, that is easier to manage).

I encourage everyone to test drive an EV. It is a TOTALLY different experience.

[still_one]

21. I have a Volt by the way, and I would aruge that the Volt concept is a more

Last edited Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:52 AM - Edit history (1)

flexible concept than the all electric cars.

For normal commutes, and as you said 90% of my driving, I am well within the 40 to 45 miles/day range on all electric. In fact, I can go months without filling the gas tank, and if I need it for longer distances I have the IC engine.

The biggest draw back of the Volt is realistically it is a two person car. Sure, children and small adults can fit in the back seat, but for many adults, the back seating would not do.

In California, they have stopped giving car pool stickers out for new Volt owners, though all electric car owners still qualify for the stickers. Both expire in 2019.

I agree with everything you have said, however, I believe until more charging stations are available nation wide, the Volt model is more attractive.

The Ford Fusion electric/hybrid is also a great model, but its all electric range is about 25 miles before it kicks into a hybrid mode. That is one advantage the Fusion has over the Volt model. It kicks into a hybrid mode when the electric is out, while the Volt kicks in to all gas when the electric is out, but it does give double the electric range than the Fusion, but then again the Fusion is a more comfortable car. Always trade-offs

[Kelvin Mace]

23. I quite agree

(Wow, something a Bernie supporter and HRC supporter are never supposed to say )

I am, in fact looking to replace my Sentra with a Volt at some point, to go with my Leaf.

The Volt is a masterful piece of engineering and a great compromise, at least until such time s EVs begin to get real world 400 mile ranges.

[still_one]

33. Something is freezing over. I don't think the 400 mile range is that far off. As far

as I am concerned, in regard to technology, we are living in some of the most exciting times.

[Kelvin Mace]

37. Abso-freakin-lutely

My major reason for wishing to be 20 years younger is to be able to absorb and grok all the new tech coming on line. We just moved last June to a single story house (stairs are my wife's kryptonite because of MS) and the new house (well, vintage 1961) has a South facing roof which allowed us to finally go solar. So, my Leaf moves on sunshine.

[still_one]

45. Very cool. I have solar also, and very similar situation to you. The Leaf was the first real all

all electric that delivered a decent range. Almost forgot about that.

You wish you were twenty years younger, I wish I was thirty years younger. My first election I voted for McGovern, 1972.

Regardless, I love bells and whistles, and the associated technology

All the best you and your wife

[7962]

39. I have a friend with the Fusion. They average 65-70 mpg

Since, as you say, most driving IS under that electric range.

[KeepItReal]

9. As they say.... "Shut up and take my money!"

[GoldenMean]

16. "Ridiculously popular"

Around the nation and world people have been waiting in line to order the Model 3
Orders will be over 100,000.
People are feeling the burn to quit burning up our planet.
The giant battery factory in Nevada is up and running.
The price of batteries is dropping fast.
Elon's dream death wish is to die on Mars.
I applaud and support the "Iron Man" and his plan to save humanity from extinction.
https://www.teslamotors.com

[Kelvin Mace]

19. The battery "gigafactory" in Nevada is still under construction

and not expected to go online before 2018, more probably 2019/2020.

Battery prices are dropping, being about half per kWh what they were even five years ago, and the magic number is under $180 for fast adoption, and $100-$125 to supplant ICE passenger vehicles. I am guessing we will hit that by 2025.

Fuel cost for EVs is 2-3 cents a mile, versus 6-8 cents for an ICEV.

[GoldenMean]

27. I stand corrected

You might want to check the progress though.
It's going quicker than expected.
Elon has the pitbull determination to take on all the crap thrown his way.

[Kelvin Mace]

36. They had a carefully scripted video tour

of some of the completed sections a few weeks ago and I have heard speculation all over the place about when it will open. Musk has been late more often than early, so I would hedge to the plant being late opening. If the 3 is coming out in 2017, they really need to ramp up that plant to meet demand, which I am guessing is going to be pretty big.

The question is, how many people will defect to the Bolt or Leaf, which are very likely to be out the end of this year, rather than wait for the 3. GM and Nissan are in a better position to put pressure on Musk since both cars are in production, or about to start, in the next 60 days.

I am cool with seeing big car companies being pushed to move because of Tesla innovation. Tesla still has cache as a premium brand the way Apple does.

All in all, a win for the planet and the consumer.

[yellowcanine]

17. 200 mile range? Take that with a pound of salt.

Seriously I do not see how they can make that claim now. The car is not even in production yet. Until they have a significant number of production cars which can be tested under various driving conditions there is no way that such a range can be predicted. I would guess that the only way someone gets 200 miles on a charge is a flat highway cruising at 35 mph. I am a fan of the concept of what Tesla is trying to do but Tesla does not have a good track record for getting cars into production on advertised timetables and nothing will queer the deal more quickly than making claims which do not hold up under real world conditions.

[Kelvin Mace]

20. Well, the Tesla has been managing it fine for a while

but again, a wise driver discounts such claims 25%. Tesla is notoriously late to deliver, so that is why I say we will see the Bolt (already starting production for delivery in the late Fall) and the Leaf with that range before the Tesla 3.

The 2017 Volt is now on lots with a 50 mile range (solid) and an on-board gasoline generator for greater range.

EVs are excellent commuter/city cars for tha vast majority of folks who drive 35 miles or less per day.

[Sunlei]

24. Best part is the battery pacs will open a new factory in America. wish they had a decent bumper,

instead of a 20k fender bender front & rear.

[tammywammy]

25. A friend has a Model S

Nice car. I'm not in the market for a new car right now, but would definitely look at this Model 3 in a few years. I currently commute 30 miles one way, so a 200 mile range would be excellent. The friend also has about the same length of commute as well. It cost him around $1,200 to get the charger installed in his garage.

[DrBulldog]

26. $35,000 is still not "affordable".

What nonsense.

Advanced technology that can improve or heal the environment is never disruptive until the masses can buy it.

[KeepItReal]

30. It competes in price with the BMW 3 Series, not a Chevy Cruze

There is no existing entry-level, luxury, all-electric vehicle to compare it with, except maybe the BMW i3 which has a <90 mile range.

[whatthehey]

35. After rebate it's LOWER than median new car price by $4k

So by definition most new car buyers will indeed find it affordable.

[Kelvin Mace]

43. Again, used models

of current cars are selling at a good discount, 50%-70% off retail for cars with less than 30-40K miles. A 2012 Leaf for under $10K is not uncommon. And the 50-70 mile range is more than adequate for the average driver.

[saidsimplesimon]

29. If the budget model is anything like the one

currently on the road they will sell. I've seen a few in my area and the car is gorgeous. Now, all we need is a way to charge these babies without the fuel used to produce the electricity, or a new battery technology.

I love the concept of ordering direct, no middlemen hiking the price. It will be important that there is a reliable chain of repair shops to handle any product defects or repairs. There is plenty of available retail space in my city to display the models and allow consumers the dealership experience. All these frills could lead to higher pricing.

[byronius]

31. Oh, great, another Tesla porn post.

My fav. I do so love this company. Can't wait for the Model 3.

[Major Nikon]

32. this thread is worthless without pics

[Baclava]

40. Pretty! If DU would care to take up a collection and gift me one I would gladly accept

I already have a long haul road trip machine.

TIA

[Baclava]

34. I see them as a second car - a $30,000+ second car with a limited range.

You can’t run down to the gas station and add a couple hundred miles of range in five to ten minutes. Waiting for an hour for another 50 miles of range at public DC Quick Charging stations (if you can find one) isn't very convenient when you get low on the road.

For a full recharge at home you have to plug in overnight, better not have your home lose power (like in a storm or hurricane) for days and days or you're really screwed.

[Kelvin Mace]

42. A QC would put more than 50 miles on in an hour

considering it recharges a Model S to about 80% in 30 minutes.

I agree that the best mix is a plug-in hybrid and a pure EV.

[Baclava]

56. The best Tesla is the Model X

Used 2016 Tesla Model X
Mileage: 64
$169,490

Seller Comments
2016 Tesla Model X P90D! This Tesla is equipped with 90 KWh battery, that will give you range of 250 miles!
3.8 seconds 0-60 mph!


Oh to dream - but for you rich donors, Yes, I'm sure you can write it off as a gift if you would like to buy me one.
Yes - I take PayPal

[Kelvin Mace]

41. Range may be 300 miles

http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/a20189/tesla-model-3-range-leak/

But this is for a more expensive "optional" battery.

[still_one]

46. It is an option for the Model 3, and so is auto drive, plus extended range to 300 miles, but that

will up the price significantly from what I have heard

[Kelvin Mace]

48. Yeah, about 60K fully tricked out.

So WAY above the reach of the masses.

[Warpy]

52. I know I want one

and that's even out west where charging stations are few and far between. In addition, the LI battery is about to be obsolete, replaced by batteries with more capacity and faster recharging turnaround. I probably won't be alive to see battery technology mature, but I might just manage to get a Tesla 3.

[Baclava]

54. "The first cars are expected to ship in late 2017 starting on the US West Coast before moving east"

http://www.theverge.com/2016/3/31/11340504/tesla-model-3-online-preorder-website-live

[Zorro]

53. For those who are interested

The unveiling event will be streaming live at www.teslamotors.com beginning around 8:15PM PDT.

[Zorro]

55. 115,000 first day reservations sight unseen

All glass roof. 0-60 < 6 seconds. "Comfortable" seating for 5 adults. 215 mile range. All autopilot equipped, supercharger enabled.