Hillary Clinton Leads Donald Trump by 14 Points Nationally in New Poll

[pnwmom]

Source: Time

Hillary Clinton has widened her lead over Donald Trump, polling 14 percentage points ahead nationally, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll, which comes 12 days before the presidential election.

Conducted after the final presidential debate, the poll finds the Democratic nominee leads Trump among likely voters 51% to 37%, a significant lead over the Republican candidate.

According to the poll, Clinton has support of 90% of likely Democratic voters, as well as support from 15% of moderate Republicans. Of the Republicans surveyed, 79% said they would vote for Trump.

The poll finds that Clinton has consolidated the support of her party, while even managing to draw Republican voters.


Read more: http://time.com/4546942/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-lead-poll/

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This was a "panel" poll, using a method similar to that of Reuters.

http://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/October-2016-AP-GfK-Poll-Topline_Campaign.pdf

AP-GfK Poll Methodology
The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted October 20 to 24, 2016 by GfK Public Affairs & Corporate Communications – a division of GfK Custom Research North America. This poll is based on a nationally-representative probability sample of 1,546 general population adults age 18 or older.

The survey was conducted using the web-enabled KnowledgePanel®, a probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. At inception participants were chosen scientifically by a random selection of telephone numbers and since 2009 through Address-based sampling using the post office’s delivery sequence file. Persons in these households are then invited to join and participate in the web-enabled KnowledgePanel®. For those who agree to participate, but do not already have Internet access, GfK provides at no cost a laptop and ISP connection. People who already have computers and Internet services are permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists then receive unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and then are sent emails throughout each month inviting them to participate in research.

The data were weighted to account for probabilities of selection, as well as age within sex, education, race, and phone type. The phone type targets came from the fall, 2012 MRI Consumer Survey. The other targets came from the March, 2012 Supplement of the Current Population Survey.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.75 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total significantly more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent. The cooperation rate for this poll was 49%.

[liberal N proud]

1. At this rate, Trump would not qualify for a debate this weekend if there was one

He is in free fall

[sheshe2]

2. Happy Dance!!!!!!

[manicraven]

3. I was excited about this poll, but Rachel Maddow deflated my thrill.

She pointed out tonight that Trump would have to be polling worse that Mondale did in 1984 when he only carried 1 state, and there's no way that Trump is carrying 1 state (Mondale barely carried Minnesota plus the District of Columbia). In the national popular vote, Reagan received 58.8% to Mondale's 40.6%.

I didn't write down what Rachel said the polls were before the election in 1884, but basically Harry Enten from 538.org said the poll with this big of a lead for Hillary is an outlier as it would mean that Trump is carrying 1 state, which he obviously isn't.

I still want this poll result to be correct, though!

[pnwmom]

4. It's probably an outlier, and so are the others that put her only 1-3 points ahead.

She's probably at a comfortable 6-8, which is fine.

[Coyotl]

5. The #BlueTsunami begins.

[center]

[olddad56]

6. It is a national poll, they polls that tell the story now are the ones in the battleground states.

Let's don't forget that Gore won the popular vote in 2000 and .... then got cheated out of the presidency.

Pay attention to the polls in the battleground states. Trump and Clinton are almost tied in some of those polls. This could be 2000 all over again.

The wealthy seemed to do well in the Bush era while the average guy got screwed.

Money talks in politics.

[pnwmom]

7. Gore won the popular vote by half a million votes. The situation isn't comparable.

Yes, the battleground states are critical. But there is little reason to think she could be ahead by 6 or 7 points, or 14 points, in a national poll -- and not be also ahead in the electoral college.

[BumRushDaShow]

10. "This could be 2000 all over again."

Not at all. Drumpf's path is extremely narrow. If he loses one so-called "battleground" state, he loses. And he is definitely going to lose my state of PA. And here in PA, we have a Democratic governor vs the dynamics of FL with hanging chads, Jeb Bush, and Katherine Harris.

Sadly in 2000, Gore did not win his own state of TN but in 2016, Hillary will definitely win both her Senatorial state (NY) and birth state (IL).

This was the final 2000 election map (271 GWB to 266 Gore) and you can see the stark difference between then -



and 2012 -



And now, where states like FL are a given (she is way ahead) and NC are a good bet (also ahead recently and given Obama won NC in 2008), it's pretty much a lock. Even if she didn't get NC and if you use the 2012 Obama map and remove a win in both OH and IA, she would still win. The population shifts that caused the electoral shifts, moved more electoral votes to more large, more diverse states like FL and CA and TX.

[Helen Borg]

8. Great but...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-is-the-presidential-race-tightening/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

"So then: Democrats have nothing to worry about, right? Nope, we wouldn’t say that, either. The race could easily tighten further. And our forecast gives Trump better odds than most other models because it accounts for the possibility of a systemic polling error, a greater risk than people may assume. A 16 percent chance of a Trump presidency isn’t nothing — as we’ve pointed out before, it’s about the same as the chances of losing a “game” of Russian roulette. And 15 percent is about the same chance we gave the San Antonio Spurs of beating the Golden State Warriors last night — the Spurs won by 29 points."

[pnwmom]

9. Yes. But these results are a good antidote to any sick feelings caused by

the Fox poll, with its 3 point lead for Hillary (within the margin of error.)

[Helen Borg]

11. Agreed...

People should just be motivated to go and vote, that's all. This is not a done deal yet.

[SpankMe]

12. This won't mean dick if she can't turn a few toss-up states. n/t

[pnwmom]

13. Why would you think she could be far ahead nationally and not turn some toss-up

states?

But last time I heard, she doesn't have to "turn" any. All she has to do is retain the ones she already has.

[Blue Idaho]

14. But, but, but...

The Donald is winning - he said so himself!?!?

[sotheyclaimDem]

15. Seems too good to be true