Poll: Clinton Loses Edge in N.H., Is Tied With Trump

[uawchild]

Last edited Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:50 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: UMass - Lowell

With less than a week to Election Day, the race for president in New Hampshire is tied, the contest for U.S. Senate is too close to call and a slight lead has emerged in the run for governor, according to a new UMass Lowell/7News poll released today.

Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump are in a dead heat with 44 percent among likely voters in the new poll, which was conducted entirely after last week’s revelation by FBI Director James Comey that new materials are being reviewed in connection with the investigation of Clinton’s use of a private email server. Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 5 percent among likely voters and Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 2 percent, with 4 percent of likely voters still undecided.

The tie between Clinton and Trump is in contrast to the UMass Lowell/7News poll conducted in mid-October, which found Clinton had a six-point lead in the four-way race. Since then, Clinton has dropped only one percentage point, but Trump has gained five and appears to be drawing stronger support from Republicans (up four points to 81 percent).

The independent, nonpartisan poll by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion surveyed 901 New Hampshire registered voters and 695 likely voters via live telephone (landline and cellphone) interviews between Oct. 28 and Nov. 2. New Hampshire is home to approximately 10,000 UMass Lowell graduates, 2,000 students and 400 employees.

Read more: https://www.uml.edu/News/press-releases/2016/NH-poll-11032016.aspx

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Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google and posting polls from the NEWS results that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News. Check this yourself to see what polls were listed.
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UMass-Lowell polling is rated B by 538 and has a R+0.1 bias

A side comment, I post these polls as they come in, the other day a bad string of polls came in for Hillary and I was castigated for posting them. Yesterday and this morning polls favorable for her came in and everyone seemed happy, no one impugned my motives. I hope as I post the inevitable, and hopefully FEW, polls that are positive for trump that those early detractors don't resume their personal attacks on my motives or integrity. Thank you.

[Foggyhill]

1. This is the state HRC had near 10% a week sho

People absolutely change their minds about trump and her that much in a week... makes total sense
All those polls are tiresome

Poll 2000 randomly accross cell and land lines accross rural, suburbs and cities find stop bulls hitting with the likely voter models

[still_one]

2. Every poll that you have been posting is NOT LBN. In fact there is some real

question if certain demographics are being factored into these polls adequately.

Time is far better spent in phone banking and GOTV instead of poll watching.

At this stage people know who they are going to vote for. That isn't going to change. The only thing needed is to GOTV

Volunteer at your nearest Democratic headquarters to GOTV through call banking into swing states, and canvassing for those who live in those swing states.

[uawchild]

3. "Every poll that you have been posting is NOT LBN."

If you mean every poll result I posted is not unexpected, I would agree. But, for example, Trump surging in Texas isn't surprising that he is winning such a red state, but it might serve as an indication of his support possibly increasing in critical battleground states before polls for those states are reported. In any case, I personally find looking at all trends and shifts interesting. I hope other DU-ers do also, at least some of them at least. lol

If you mean some polls I posted were duplicate threads, well, I try not to do that and yesterday I both asked a forum moderator if one poll was a duplicate (it wasn't) and I deleted another post when a DU-er pointed out it was a duplicate of an earlier poll from a different source.

If you mean some polls I posted were too old to be late breaking news, I have tried very hard to post the latest polls that show up in the google search results for the word "poll". I don't think any outdated polls were posted, but please point out any you might see or have seen.

Also, please alert on any poll posted that you feel violates the Late Breaking News forum rules, the moderators do a good job of policing that.

Enjoy your morning.

[still_one]

4. I am not alerting on your post. What I will be doing, and have been doing is call banking into

swing states to get out the vote, and I have been doing it for a while and will continue through the weekend

Enjoy your morning while I am phone banking
Its 5:30 A.M. where I am, but I will be there at 9

[uawchild]

7. Good! Getting out the vote is imperative.

Life rewards action, as they say!

I am signed up to drive people to the polls on Election Day, even though I am in a state fairly strong for Hillary, I want to have her popular vote total as high as possible.

Cheers

[vdogg]

8. This is the same poll from yesterday.

Strange you didn't post that brand new poll from TODAY that shows us up 7 in Virginia. Guess that didn't come up when you typed poll into google. You know you can filter your search to only bring up stuff posted within the last 24 hrs, newest first.

[uawchild]

10. Its not the same poll

Last edited Fri Nov 4, 2016, 05:01 PM - Edit history (2)

It is NOT the same poll. Please check more carefully next time before making declarations like this.

THIS poll was done by UMass-Lowell.

The PREVIOUS poll on NH was by Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll

The NH poll before THAT was the WBUR-FM poll, conducted by MassINC Polling Group

"Strange you didn't post that brand new poll from TODAY that shows us up 7 in Virginia. Guess that didn't come up when you typed poll into google."

Why the snark? It didn't show up yet for me. Shrug. Did you even bother to read all the polls GOOD for Hillary that were posted yesterday and the one this morning? Seems not.

Here, let me help you out:

Hint of Momentum for Clinton, With Issues a Defining Factor (POLL)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141615909

Poll: Clinton holds whopping lead over Trump with Hispanics
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141615602

Clinton’s 30-point lead in Florida Hispanic poll is ‘terrifying’ to GOP nationwide
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141615726

New Poll Finds Close Race in Georgia
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141615566

So, please just give up your erroneous narrative. I am not "cherry picking" polls to make Hillary look bad.

Honestly, you are making yourself look silly now. Did you read my comment about this in the op?

Here it is again:

"A side comment, I post these polls as they come in, the other day a bad string of polls came in for Hillary and I was castigated for posting them. Yesterday and this morning polls favorable for her came in and everyone seemed happy, no one impugned my motives. I hope as I post the inevitable, and hopefully FEW, polls that are positive for trump that those early detractors don't resume their personal attacks on my motives or integrity. Thank you."

Your continuation of a false narrative today in light of ALL the polls posted just saddens me. Continuing to impugn my motives and integrity is simply being rude.

[uawchild]

16. "Strange you didn't post that brand new poll from TODAY that shows us up 7 in Virginia"

Last edited Fri Nov 4, 2016, 01:38 PM - Edit history (1)

Not strange at all, it just took till 10:00 this morning for it to show up for me.

While its nice that Hillary has a fairly decent lead in Virginia according to this poll, this poll shows a continue tightening of the race there.

You criticized me repeatedly for "cherry picking" bad polls for Hillary, and yet you demanded I post one showing her support is declining.

In any case, its posted. Shrug.

I had credited you for asking about this poll, but then thought better of using names without permission. But thanks for the heads up and the tip on changing the time frame filter. That makes things easier for me.

Honestly, its time for you to give up the false accusations, I am posting all the polls (that have not been posted yet in LBN) as they show up for me. You just got concerned over one day of bad poll results and are still harping on me posting them. Shrug. I post them all.

That's more than obvious by now.

[Thrill]

17. He's barely hanging on in GA

And we're supposed to be close in NH?

[uawchild]

19. Honest answer? We were.

NH was part of the electoral firewall we were counting on. With NH blue, trumps would have to flip a long shot midwestern state.

Trump's path in the electoral college if things go perfectly for him in the battle ground states barely gets him past the 270 needed.
If NH stays blue he's screwed.

[LanternWaste]

20. You'll supply objective evidence to support the allegation, yes?

"NH was part of the electoral firewall we were counting on..."

You'll supply objective evidence to support the allegation, yes?

[uawchild]

22. Its more an assertion than an allegation, but sure, I'd be glad to explain the Clinton Firewall

Last edited Fri Nov 4, 2016, 02:30 PM - Edit history (1)

When I said:

"NH was part of the electoral firewall we were counting on. With NH blue, trumps would have to flip a long shot midwestern state.

Trump's path in the electoral college if things go perfectly for him in the battle ground states barely gets him past the 270 needed.
If NH stays blue he's screwed."

I was referring to the commonly used concept that some states formed a "Clinton Firewall" that very very likely would, based on tons of previous polling, thwart Trump in the electoral college.

Lets google that for you now...

"Hillary Clinton’s swing state firewall, explained

Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump in recent national polls has been shrinking, with key swing states like Florida and North Carolina looking increasingly competitive and Ohio and Iowa appearing to have fallen beyond her reach.

But to win an Electoral College majority of at least 270 votes, Clinton doesn’t need to win any of those states. She just needs to hold six swing states where public polling has generally shown her doing very well: Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.

This group of states has been dubbed Clinton’s “firewall,” and she’s led the vast, vast majority of polls of them this year. Indeed, her campaign cut off its ad spending in Virginia and Colorado back in August, signaling that they were in the bag, and never even bothered to run ads in Wisconsin and Michigan."

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/4/13502350/hillary-clinton-polls-firewall

It's just commonly used political terminology and expresses people's analysis of the political landscape, its not something guaranteed or do or die. It just expresses the belief that Trump's electoral path to victory is very limited. The term firewall being used metaphorically as in it would stop the spread of Trump's electoral success and block him from the white house. Consider it a widely used political shorthand.

Google is your friend. There are tons of examples where New Hampshire is said to be part of the Clinton Firewall that people were/are counting on to some degree. Here's one more for example:

"Clinton works to shore up her firewall in key states

Democrats, no longer aiming for a blowout win, are working furiously to shore up Hillary Clinton’s firewall in Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, and other key states as her bitter battle with Donald Trump hurtles into the final weekend before Tuesday’s vote."
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/11/03/clinton-works-shore-her-firewall-key-states/t8wddHifT520oewWPULn0H/story.html

Honestly, I am shocked that you were not familiar with New Hampshire being considered part of an electoral firewall for Hillary. You usually seem very knowledgable. I hope this has cleared up any confusion you have about New Hampshire being in a "firewall" that we democrats, well many of us in any case, were/are, to a degree, counting on.

Enjoy your afternoon.

[Democat]

23. This poster's "we" is different than most DU members

It's pretty clear.

[uawchild]

34. Really? Lets look at what's TRENDING NOW...

Friday 11/04 4:20PM

TRENDING NOW

Have to find a new Barber
35 recs : By Jason1961

This Is the Bleakest Poll of the 2016 Election
35 recs : By uawchild

Allegations mount against FBI, possible campaign intervention
30 recs : By G_j

Fox anchor Bret Baier on Clinton ‘indictment’ story: ‘It was a mistake, and for that I’m sorry’
22 recs : By Tommy_Carcetti

"Carry her..."
19 recs : By sheshe2

cough 35 Recs cough

That's for my post on the poll showing how Donald Trump is harming young girls with his misogyny .

Enjoy your evening.

[bunnies]

27. Bullshit.

Ill leave it at that.

[bunnies]

36. I live here in NH. Have lived here all my life.

So, Yeah. I'm familiar with the people in my state.

[regnaD kciN]

28. PPP just reported Clinton +5 in NH…

FWIW…

[obnoxiousdrunk]

29. But that doesn't come

up when you type "poll" in Google....

[uawchild]

32. You forgot to say this part "in the NEWS results" lol

You forgot to say this part "in the NEWS results" lol

I figured if google called it NEWS and linked to a NEWS story describing the poll, that would qualify to be posted in Late Breaking News.

But, hey, I needed an impartial way to select the polls, otherwise -- and I know you will find this hard to believe -- some people would accuse me of "cherry picking" which ones I posted. Seriously, people would do that. lol

Enjoy the rest of the afternoon.

[uawchild]

33. That's exciting news! Have a link for it ?

Last edited Fri Nov 4, 2016, 04:19 PM - Edit history (2)

I'd be glad to post any news article about that if you don't have the time. I need a timely (within 24 hour window) news article so it can be posted in Late Breaking News.

All the other polls over the last three days had it dead even, basically.

Clinton at +5 in a new poll for New Hampshire is great news!

I can't find a link to an article on this, I'll keep looking, but could you post a link please?

There is a link, right?



Thanks.

[Rex]

37. I seriously doubt that is true.

[uawchild]

38. FYI: You are replying to old post that is days old. n/t

[Rex]

39. See post #28

[uawchild]

42. That post u replied to is dated Fri Nov 4, 2016, 01:57 PM

[Vinca]

40. True or not, maybe this is a good thing.

I live in the sticks in New Hampshire and this afternoon, within one hour, I had 2 sets of people turn up at my back door getting out the vote for Democrats. Each had out-of-state license plates. I think Democrats are converging on the state to get every last voter out. In the past couple of weeks, I've had Democrats turn up at the back door twice and they've called me on the phone. Not a peep from the Trumpenfuhrer and his merry band of deplorables.

[Sunlei]

41. dumb as it is Rs will vote straight party because they know how easy it is to take advantage of a R

president. Especially one as ignorant & hatefull as trump. He's more slow then bush and look how cheney got away with a trillion in taxpayers federal funds and state republicans took all state funds and broke the states.

trump won't win but in R dreams he wins and republicans get to use the 2.5 million souls in for profit prisons as slave labor to build their wall or work in any business they want.

Because the 13th amendment allows slavery of prisoners and by god republicans will use those prisoners and call their work "jobs"