Latest Guardian/ICM poll shows Conservatives 18 points ahead of Labour

[brooklynite]

Source: The Guardian

As we all know, opinion polls are not a 100% reliable guide to election results. But they are still considerably more useful than mass vox pops, looking at Twitter or guesswork, and with that caveat here the results of the latest Guardian/ICM poll.

In a nutshell, it is truly dire for Labour.
Conservatives: 44% (up 2 points from Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)
Labour: 26% (down 1)
Ukip: 13% (up 1)
Lib Dems: 8% (down 2)
Greens: 4% (no change)
Conservative lead: 18 points (up 3)

According to ICM’s Martin Boon, only three other polls in this series (dating from May 1983, when ICM was Marplan) have given the Tories a higher lead over Labour. Two of those polls were just before the 1983 general election, when Margaret Thatcher crushed Michael Foot, and the other was in June 2008, when Gordon Brown’s premiership was at a low point.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/20/paul-nuttall-ukip-chairmen-quit-in-protest-over-paul-nuttalls-hillsborough-falsehoold-politics-live

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From other sources, Corbyn has reportedly been doing private polling as to whether he should remain as Labour leader in the next (2020) election.

[nycbos]

1. Excellent

Maybe Labour will ditch Corbyn and will get a leader that a) believes in progressive economics and b) doesn't support terrorism and isn't an antisemite.

[Ken Burch]

2. Corbyn believes in progressive economics...that's why he's a socialist

There can't really be a progressive form of market economics.

He is not an anti-Semite.

And he has never supported terrorism-it's just that he's not an apologist for Netanyahu.

[nycbos]

5. He is pro-Hamas

He has called Hamas and Hezbollah agents of “long-term peace and social justice and political justice in the whole region,” and once invited to Parliament a Palestinian Islamist, Raed Salah, who has suggested Jews were absent from the World Trade Center on 9/11. Corbyn called him an “honored citizen.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/08/opinion/an-anti-semitism-of-the-left.html?_r=1


Blaming Jews for 9/11 is the textbook definition of antisemitism.


Corbyn once described it as his “honour and pleasure” to host “our friends” from Hamas and Hezbollah in parliament. According to Corbyn, he extended his invitation to the aforementioned groups – and spoke of them glowingly – because all sides need to be involved in the peace process.

So far, so reasonable. Yet negotiation is not on Hamas’s agenda, as Corbyn ought to know. In its charter Hamas states: “Initiatives, and so-called peaceful solutions and international conferences, are in contradiction to the principles of the Islamic Resistance Movement… There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through jihad.”

It isn’t a peaceful negotiated solution that Hamas wants; it’s the destruction of the Jews. Here is a direct quote from Hamas’s charter: “The prophet, prayer and peace be upon him, said: ‘The time will not come until Muslims will fight the Jews (and kill them); until the Jews hide behind rocks and trees, which will cry: O Muslim! there is a Jew hiding behind me, come on and kill him!’”

Written a letter defending Stephen Sizer, the vicar disciplined by the Church of England for linking to an article on social media entitled 9/11: Israel Did It;

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/13/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-foreign-policy-antisemitism

[Ken Burch]

6. He is not pro-Hamas. He's pro-negotiated peace

To get that, Hamas have to be part of the negotiations. There's no alternative.

It's not possible to end the Israel/Palestine conflict through military victory for either side.

And the term "our friends" was simply a formality of the sort used with negotiating partners.

[nycbos]

8. You can keep believing in your alternative facts.

But Hamas is not interested in a negoticated peace.

The following FACTS make him an antisemite.

1. He honored a man that blames Jews for 9/11 saying Jews were absent from the WTC.

2. He defended a man who blamed Israel for 9/11

3.He appears on an Iranian propaganda station.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/13/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-foreign-policy-antisemitism


Not all of his supporters are antisemites. But a lot of antisemites support him. Just like not all Trump supporters are racists, but a lot of racists support Trump. A lot of his supporters are just people willing to ignore his antisemitism because he "progressive economic polices."

Well I am not one of those people.


Just like some GOPers who might not be racist themselves are willing to go along with Trump becuse they want to destroy the safety net.

[TeacherB87]

13. Nope...because he's a liberal!

The all-too-casual dismissal of Corbyn's problems just because he IDs as a socialist lacks any moral clarity.

[fountainofyouth]

3. Corbyn's mess in a nutshell

His foreign policy positions put him in favor of nuclear disarmament, such as those missiles carried by the Trident submarine. But the shipbuilders are a traditional constituency of Labour. His compromise? Build nuclear-capable submarines without the nukes!

[Ken Burch]

4. It would keep the jobs.

He would probably call for a program of economic conversion to peaceful use, but the right wing of his party won't tolerate any disagreement with the Tories on foreign policy at all.

If Labour had been the official opposition in 1900, the anti-Corbynites would support preserving the Empire and would oppose Irish Home Rule.

[Stargleamer]

7. Another reason the Scottish should be allowed to get the fuck out if they ever vote to do so n/t

[Ken Burch]

9. Ironically, the main reason Scotland narrowly voted to stay in the UK...

...was the Tory assertion that independence would mean exclusion from the EU...

[nycbos]

10. It would.

Say Scotland voted yes and they left the UK. They would then have to apply for EU membership as an independent nation.

Any EU nation has the ability to veto new members.


Spain would veto Scotland's entry. They don't want to set a precedent that would allow Catalonia to leave Spain and rejoin the EU as an independent nation.

[Ken Burch]

11. But, having narrowly voted Stay, Scotland is now going to be out of the EU anyway.

And at least some of the people campaigning for Stay were planning to campaign for Leave in the EU referendum.

[Denzil_DC]

12. Your information is out of date.

Spain has made it crystal clear that Scotland's situation if it held a referendum to leave the UK and stand as an independent nation again and the vote was Yes is not parallel with Catalonia, which is forbidden by the Spanish Constitution from seceding.

Spain is much more concerned about the status of Gibraltar (as are the inhabitants of Gibraltar), and has threatened to veto any Brexit deal if it doesn't like the arrangements concerning it. (There's also the small matter of access to Scottish fishing grounds, on which the Spanish fleet relies.)

The Scottish Government has been making major diplomatic inroads among the EU member states since the Brexit vote. Unless you rely on the likes of the Express, Mail, etc., very encouraging noises have been made about smoothing the way for Scottish entry to the EU by major EU figures, including their chief Brexit negotiators.