Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
Wed May 10, 2017, 04:48 PM May 2017

Study: Black turnout slumped in 2016

Source: Politico

The turnout rate rose among white voters in the 2016 election and declined substantially among black voters, according to a new study.

The Census’ Current Population Survey, released Wednesday, shows 65 percent of white citizens cast ballots in last year’s presidential election, up from 64 percent four years earlier.

But the turnout rate among African-American citizens tumbled sharply, the survey shows. Only 59 percent of black citizens voted in 2016, down from 66 percent in 2012 and 65 percent in 2008.

* * *

A decline in African-American turnout is consistent with other data sources that suggest that lower voting rates among the traditionally Democratic voting group may have doomed Hillary Clinton in last year’s presidential race. The 59-percent black turnout rate last year more closely resembles the 60-percent rate in 2004 than either of former President Barack Obama’s elections.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/10/black-election-turnout-down-2016-census-survey-238226



Well, so much for the theory that a single Democratic candidate had the votes of African-American voters locked up. I am not criticizing that candidate. I am criticizing the approach of the Party, which routinely fails to address the issues of particular voters (including voters of color), perhaps on the theory of "where else they gonna go?" Where they are gonna go, apparently, is not to the voting booth. I am not defending non-voting. I am saying non-voting is a real phenomena that smart activists and campaigners should deal with.

We need to be forward looking! All Democratic candidates of the future must work to drive voter turnout, of all communities, including communities of color that they may have been taught to think are "locked up." Conventional wisdom needs to be discarded. All votes should be fought for, and none should be taken for granted, particularly if data models assume all white Democrats will achieve the same level of African-American turnout as that achieved by the first African-American President. That's clearly a wrong assumption.

See also on related topics:

Shattered, which details the hubris of the data-driven campaign that got the data wrong in a few key states where it mattered: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/328405-clinton-campaign-plagued-by-bickering

Listen, Liberal, which details why some voters are fed up with the "where they gonna go" attitude toward them: https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/thomas-frank/listen-liberal/
20 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Study: Black turnout slumped in 2016 (Original Post) OrwellwasRight May 2017 OP
You assume it was the approach but what impact did the varies voter ID laws play in that decline? cstanleytech May 2017 #1
If centrist Dems were worried about that, they should have gone after it a lot more aggressively yurbud May 2017 #15
The percentage was the same as before Obama- is that surprising? bettyellen May 2017 #2
The base didn't turn out. That's how you lose to an orange fascist. LS_Editor May 2017 #3
What "base" are you talking about? NurseJackie May 2017 #8
You mean the base that was purposely targeted by Interstate Crosscheck, voter ID laws... brush May 2017 #13
Considering that HRC dominated the AA vote in the primaries it seems unlikely that any other StevieM May 2017 #4
I agree with both posts 1 and 2 above mine: George II May 2017 #5
I just reviewed the data in the linked report: George II May 2017 #6
The party didn't take black people for granted! The GOP TARGETED minority and youthful voters pnwmom May 2017 #7
Also, the Pope is Catholic nt 7962 May 2017 #9
Well, that's only 1% less than 2004, the last time there was a white candidate. Honeycombe8 May 2017 #10
Race isn't the issue. A candidate can not be too "white". It is gender. McCamy Taylor May 2017 #11
New voter suppression laws targeted people of color. yardwork May 2017 #12
This is kind of misleading. Obama had a spike in black voter turnout. LisaL May 2017 #14
Yes I agree Tom Rinaldo May 2017 #17
Slumped? Or pushed down? Or what percentage of both? JHB May 2017 #16
I agree with this as well Tom Rinaldo May 2017 #18
Yep. GoCubsGo May 2017 #19
Blacks DID turn out for Hillary. Just not as much as for Obama fiorello May 2017 #20

yurbud

(39,405 posts)
15. If centrist Dems were worried about that, they should have gone after it a lot more aggressively
Fri May 12, 2017, 03:14 PM
May 2017

voter disenfranchisement via various frauds have played a role in Republican victories since at least Bush in 2000.

Democrats have made some efforts to fight this in the courts, but not loudly enough in the court of public opinion.

If Republicans are going to double down on their voter fraud fraud, it's time to call their bluff.

 

bettyellen

(47,209 posts)
2. The percentage was the same as before Obama- is that surprising?
Wed May 10, 2017, 04:51 PM
May 2017

Despite he huge amount of people tossed off the rolls? Is that supposed to make HRC look worse than other Dems? Sounds like it.

brush

(53,758 posts)
13. You mean the base that was purposely targeted by Interstate Crosscheck, voter ID laws...
Thu May 11, 2017, 02:09 AM
May 2017

broken voting machines placed in AA districts, the cut back on early voting targeted at black church "souls to the polls" vote drives and all the other repug dirty tricks?

Don't fall for these bullshit reports that try to blame black people for Hillary's loss.

Be smart enough to know that if repugs try to stop black people from voting they are going to skim off some votes with their schemes.

Duh!

StevieM

(10,500 posts)
4. Considering that HRC dominated the AA vote in the primaries it seems unlikely that any other
Wed May 10, 2017, 04:56 PM
May 2017

Democrat would have done too much better.

Nobody was going to beat Obama's numbers.

And it is pretty impressive that she approximately matched Kerry's numbers, given the voter suppression methods that have been implemented since then.

George II

(67,782 posts)
5. I agree with both posts 1 and 2 above mine:
Wed May 10, 2017, 04:59 PM
May 2017

The decline could most likely be due to a concerted effort by republicans to suppress the vote in high % black areas, AND it is back to similar levels of black participation prior to the two elections where the first black President was on the ballot for a major American party.

What would be interesting would be a look at long-term trends over 20-30 years.

George II

(67,782 posts)
6. I just reviewed the data in the linked report:
Wed May 10, 2017, 05:08 PM
May 2017

It's true that black turnout was lower in 2016 than 2008 and 2012, but that's understandable considering the candidates. BUT, in 2016 it was only 0.07% lower than in 2004, and higher than each of the previous four elections from 1988 through 2000.

In my mind, the conclusion of the report is flawed.

I can't get it from the data presented, but it would more interesting to see the % of black vote vs. ALL voters in the last several presidential elections.

pnwmom

(108,973 posts)
7. The party didn't take black people for granted! The GOP TARGETED minority and youthful voters
Wed May 10, 2017, 05:08 PM
May 2017

in its voter suppression efforts: new, onerous voter ID requirements that hit lower income people, primarily minorities, the hardest; the Cross-check system that hit members of minority groups the hardest; and cutting back on voting hours and locations -- which also made it harder for working people and those dependent on public transportation.

The critics of the party can't have it both ways -- saying that white voters are being overlooked because of the concentration on minority voters and "identity politics" AND saying that black voters are being overlooked. This makes no sense.

Honeycombe8

(37,648 posts)
10. Well, that's only 1% less than 2004, the last time there was a white candidate.
Wed May 10, 2017, 05:40 PM
May 2017

It's understandable there was a higher Af American turnout for the historical Obama elections in 2008 and 2012. And in addition, it WAS the charismatic and well liked Obama.

I wouldn't blame an individual candidate or party for a somewhat low turnout, unless certain key points weren't pointed out to the voters. People will either care or not, vote or not. If a group of people, of whatever race or religion, don't feel compelled to vote, even if it's only against someone like Trump, then, like Obama said, they deserve the President they get.

Unfortunately for the rest of us, we have to live with that decision, too.

Blacks have many of the same interests as whites, and Euro ancestry whites have many of the same interests as Irish whites and French whites, and Catholics have many of the same interests as Baptists.

The Democratic Party has done plenty for each of the groups who vote for them. I really wish they'd focus on ALL voters as one big group, including white blue collar, men and women, all races, LGBT & straight. We all really share many of the same concerns.

There are some special issues concerning blacks, though, because of the history in our country of preventing them from voting, rights to live where they want, equal pay, etc. The same can be said of women. Then, too, blue collar workers (of all races) have certain issues (like jobs & trade agreements) that appeal particularly to them, since they've been hit hardest by the move of jobs to other countries.

If HRC had won, there wouldn't be all this criticism. She won the popular vote. She ran a very good campaign, in view of her email issues. In hindsight, that was a much bigger issue than many thought it would be.

McCamy Taylor

(19,240 posts)
11. Race isn't the issue. A candidate can not be too "white". It is gender.
Wed May 10, 2017, 08:17 PM
May 2017

Many sections of American refuse to give up their guns, their religion--and their sexism.

yardwork

(61,585 posts)
12. New voter suppression laws targeted people of color.
Wed May 10, 2017, 08:51 PM
May 2017

I know that the new voter suppression laws had an impact in NC. People tried to vote and were turned away.

Despite that, black voters supported Hillary Clinton by huge margins. Whites supported Trump.

LisaL

(44,972 posts)
14. This is kind of misleading. Obama had a spike in black voter turnout.
Thu May 11, 2017, 07:55 AM
May 2017

Looks like the turnout returned to average for Hillary.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,912 posts)
17. Yes I agree
Fri May 12, 2017, 04:23 PM
May 2017

I'm not surprised at all that there was an increase in black voting when the first African American to ever run for President on a major party line was on the ballot. Some things about human nature are predictable. I do think that Hillary may have been a tad too optimistic that nearly the same record African American voting rate would manifest for her as well.

JHB

(37,158 posts)
16. Slumped? Or pushed down? Or what percentage of both?
Fri May 12, 2017, 04:07 PM
May 2017

Never discount Republican vote-suppression efforts.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,912 posts)
18. I agree with this as well
Fri May 12, 2017, 04:25 PM
May 2017

It was certainly a factor. It was in play in 2012 also after Republicans gained control of more State governments after the post Census gerrymandering that happened after their 2010 banner election year.

GoCubsGo

(32,078 posts)
19. Yep.
Fri May 12, 2017, 07:34 PM
May 2017

There are reports just coming out that hundreds of thousands of people were purged from voter rolls in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania--all states where Comrade Trump won by less than 100,000 votes.

fiorello

(182 posts)
20. Blacks DID turn out for Hillary. Just not as much as for Obama
Fri May 12, 2017, 08:59 PM
May 2017

I am depressed by this whole "black vote" claim. I looked this up some time ago - sorry, did not keep reference. The African-American turnout for Hillary was equal to (actually slightly larger than) the turnout for Kerry in 2004, Gore in 2000, and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. It just was not as large as the turnout for Obama.

African Americans, like every other ethnic group, turn out in higher numbers when one of their own is running. It's no blame for either Hillary or AA voters if the turnout did not quite match the appeal of Obama's magic.

Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»Study: Black turnout slum...