Study: Black turnout slumped in 2016
Source: Politico
The turnout rate rose among white voters in the 2016 election and declined substantially among black voters, according to a new study.
The Census Current Population Survey, released Wednesday, shows 65 percent of white citizens cast ballots in last years presidential election, up from 64 percent four years earlier.
But the turnout rate among African-American citizens tumbled sharply, the survey shows. Only 59 percent of black citizens voted in 2016, down from 66 percent in 2012 and 65 percent in 2008.
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A decline in African-American turnout is consistent with other data sources that suggest that lower voting rates among the traditionally Democratic voting group may have doomed Hillary Clinton in last years presidential race. The 59-percent black turnout rate last year more closely resembles the 60-percent rate in 2004 than either of former President Barack Obamas elections.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/10/black-election-turnout-down-2016-census-survey-238226
Well, so much for the theory that a single Democratic candidate had the votes of African-American voters locked up. I am not criticizing that candidate. I am criticizing the approach of the Party, which routinely fails to address the issues of particular voters (including voters of color), perhaps on the theory of "where else they gonna go?" Where they are gonna go, apparently, is not to the voting booth. I am not defending non-voting. I am saying non-voting is a real phenomena that smart activists and campaigners should deal with.
We need to be forward looking! All Democratic candidates of the future must work to drive voter turnout, of all communities, including communities of color that they may have been taught to think are "locked up." Conventional wisdom needs to be discarded. All votes should be fought for, and none should be taken for granted, particularly if data models assume all white Democrats will achieve the same level of African-American turnout as that achieved by the first African-American President. That's clearly a wrong assumption.
See also on related topics:
Shattered, which details the hubris of the data-driven campaign that got the data wrong in a few key states where it mattered: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/328405-clinton-campaign-plagued-by-bickering
Listen, Liberal, which details why some voters are fed up with the "where they gonna go" attitude toward them: https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/thomas-frank/listen-liberal/
cstanleytech
(26,273 posts)yurbud
(39,405 posts)voter disenfranchisement via various frauds have played a role in Republican victories since at least Bush in 2000.
Democrats have made some efforts to fight this in the courts, but not loudly enough in the court of public opinion.
If Republicans are going to double down on their voter fraud fraud, it's time to call their bluff.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Despite he huge amount of people tossed off the rolls? Is that supposed to make HRC look worse than other Dems? Sounds like it.
LS_Editor
(893 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)brush
(53,758 posts)broken voting machines placed in AA districts, the cut back on early voting targeted at black church "souls to the polls" vote drives and all the other repug dirty tricks?
Don't fall for these bullshit reports that try to blame black people for Hillary's loss.
Be smart enough to know that if repugs try to stop black people from voting they are going to skim off some votes with their schemes.
Duh!
StevieM
(10,500 posts)Democrat would have done too much better.
Nobody was going to beat Obama's numbers.
And it is pretty impressive that she approximately matched Kerry's numbers, given the voter suppression methods that have been implemented since then.
George II
(67,782 posts)The decline could most likely be due to a concerted effort by republicans to suppress the vote in high % black areas, AND it is back to similar levels of black participation prior to the two elections where the first black President was on the ballot for a major American party.
What would be interesting would be a look at long-term trends over 20-30 years.
George II
(67,782 posts)It's true that black turnout was lower in 2016 than 2008 and 2012, but that's understandable considering the candidates. BUT, in 2016 it was only 0.07% lower than in 2004, and higher than each of the previous four elections from 1988 through 2000.
In my mind, the conclusion of the report is flawed.
I can't get it from the data presented, but it would more interesting to see the % of black vote vs. ALL voters in the last several presidential elections.
pnwmom
(108,973 posts)in its voter suppression efforts: new, onerous voter ID requirements that hit lower income people, primarily minorities, the hardest; the Cross-check system that hit members of minority groups the hardest; and cutting back on voting hours and locations -- which also made it harder for working people and those dependent on public transportation.
The critics of the party can't have it both ways -- saying that white voters are being overlooked because of the concentration on minority voters and "identity politics" AND saying that black voters are being overlooked. This makes no sense.
7962
(11,841 posts)Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)It's understandable there was a higher Af American turnout for the historical Obama elections in 2008 and 2012. And in addition, it WAS the charismatic and well liked Obama.
I wouldn't blame an individual candidate or party for a somewhat low turnout, unless certain key points weren't pointed out to the voters. People will either care or not, vote or not. If a group of people, of whatever race or religion, don't feel compelled to vote, even if it's only against someone like Trump, then, like Obama said, they deserve the President they get.
Unfortunately for the rest of us, we have to live with that decision, too.
Blacks have many of the same interests as whites, and Euro ancestry whites have many of the same interests as Irish whites and French whites, and Catholics have many of the same interests as Baptists.
The Democratic Party has done plenty for each of the groups who vote for them. I really wish they'd focus on ALL voters as one big group, including white blue collar, men and women, all races, LGBT & straight. We all really share many of the same concerns.
There are some special issues concerning blacks, though, because of the history in our country of preventing them from voting, rights to live where they want, equal pay, etc. The same can be said of women. Then, too, blue collar workers (of all races) have certain issues (like jobs & trade agreements) that appeal particularly to them, since they've been hit hardest by the move of jobs to other countries.
If HRC had won, there wouldn't be all this criticism. She won the popular vote. She ran a very good campaign, in view of her email issues. In hindsight, that was a much bigger issue than many thought it would be.
McCamy Taylor
(19,240 posts)Many sections of American refuse to give up their guns, their religion--and their sexism.
yardwork
(61,585 posts)I know that the new voter suppression laws had an impact in NC. People tried to vote and were turned away.
Despite that, black voters supported Hillary Clinton by huge margins. Whites supported Trump.
LisaL
(44,972 posts)Looks like the turnout returned to average for Hillary.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)I'm not surprised at all that there was an increase in black voting when the first African American to ever run for President on a major party line was on the ballot. Some things about human nature are predictable. I do think that Hillary may have been a tad too optimistic that nearly the same record African American voting rate would manifest for her as well.
JHB
(37,158 posts)Never discount Republican vote-suppression efforts.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)It was certainly a factor. It was in play in 2012 also after Republicans gained control of more State governments after the post Census gerrymandering that happened after their 2010 banner election year.
There are reports just coming out that hundreds of thousands of people were purged from voter rolls in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania--all states where Comrade Trump won by less than 100,000 votes.
fiorello
(182 posts)I am depressed by this whole "black vote" claim. I looked this up some time ago - sorry, did not keep reference. The African-American turnout for Hillary was equal to (actually slightly larger than) the turnout for Kerry in 2004, Gore in 2000, and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. It just was not as large as the turnout for Obama.
African Americans, like every other ethnic group, turn out in higher numbers when one of their own is running. It's no blame for either Hillary or AA voters if the turnout did not quite match the appeal of Obama's magic.