ADP Data on Private Hiring Suggest U.S. Job Market Is Moderating

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: Bloomberg

ADP Data on Private Hiring Suggest U.S. Job Market Is Moderating
By Patricia Laya
July 6, 2017, 8:17 AM EDT July 6, 2017, 8:29 AM EDT

Companies adding fewer workers to U.S. payrolls in June than the prior month indicates the job market may be cooling after outsized gains earlier this year, data from the ADP Research Institute showed Thursday.

Key Takeaway

The second-lowest increase in 2017 probably reflects the challenge of finding skilled workers amid a tightening job market, and may also be a sign businesses are holding off on expansion plans until they see more evidence the new administrations plans are translating into legislation that will reduce taxes and spur growth. The ADP report may prompt some economists to adjust their forecasts for the private payrolls tally in the June jobs report due from the Labor Department on Friday, where the median estimate is for a gain of 170,000.

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-06/adp-data-show-u-s-companies-added-158-000-jobs-in-june

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For free access to articles in The Wall Street Journal., go in through their Twitter account.

Firms across the country added 158,000 workers to their ranks in June

Link to tweet

[bucolic_frolic]

1. I use my own Hinterlands Indicator

Once housing prices nudge upward in the most remote regional areas,
and the weakest towns show some job growth, you can bet the peak
has been reached and the trend will reverse. That's because there are
the Trickle Down areas who see a few raindrops after the deluge blesses
high income areas. Yes we reached this about March or April of this year.
It was partly relief that the election was over, that campaigns were not
begging for cash, but it quickly evaporated for obvious reasons.

[George II]

2. I don't have the numbers handy, but doesn't hiring generally show a slight increase...

...when June rolls around because of summer jobs for student?

[DallasNE]

3. ADP's Track Record Is Only So So

BLS will be out tomorrow. Those reports showed a strong January-February but soft every period since then.

What I like to do is to take a two month rolling average. For instance, December-January would be the last wholly Obama period, followed by the transition period of January-February with the first wholly Trump period starting with February-March, etc. The purpose isn't a tally of jobs added but a smoothed out trend line that is current.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

5. Got your data right here:

Last edited Fri Jul 7, 2017, 04:32 PM - Edit history (1)

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2017 (this report):

ADP Data on Private Hiring Suggest U.S. Job Market Is Moderating

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2017:

Payroll employment rises by 138,000 in May; unemployment rate changes little (4.3%)

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2017:

U.S. companies add 253,000 jobs in May: ADP
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10141788761

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2017:

Payroll employment rises by 211,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little at 4.4%
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10141767325

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2017:

Private-sector hiring slowest in four months, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2017:

Unemployment rate declines to 4.5 percent in March; payroll employment edges up by 98,000

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2017:

Private sector adds 263,000 jobs in March: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2017:

Payroll employment rises by 235,000 in February; unemployment rate changes little at 4.7%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2017:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 298,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2017:

Payroll employment rises by 227,000 in January; unemployment rate changes little (4.8%)

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2017:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 246,000 Jobs in January

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2016:

Payroll employment rises by 156,000 in December; unemployment rate changes little (4.7%)

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2016:

Private hiring slows in December, jobs market still solid

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2016:

Unemployment rate declines to 4.6% in November; payroll employment increases by 178,000

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2016:

Payroll employment rises by 161,000 in October; unemployment rate changes little (4.9%)

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2016:

Payroll employment increases by 156,000 in September; unemployment rate little changed...

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2016:

Payroll employment increases by 151,000 in August; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2016:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 177,000 Jobs in August

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2016:

Payroll employment increases by 255,000 in July; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2016:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 179,000 Jobs in July

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2016:

Payroll employment increases by 287,000 in June; unemployment rate rises to 4.9%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2016:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 172,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2016:

Unemployment rate declines to 4.7% in May; payroll employment changes little (+38,000)

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2016:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 173,000 Jobs in May

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2016:

Payroll employment increases by 160,000 in April; unemployment rate unchanged at 5.0%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2016:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 156,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2016:

Payroll employment rises by 215,000 in March; unemployment rate little changed at 5.0%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2016:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 156,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2016:

Payroll employment rises by 215,000 in March; unemployment rate little changed at 5.0%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2016:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 200,000 Jobs in March

[IronLionZion]

4. We're all going to get Trumped

some just don't know it yet

[Dopers_Greed]

6. The Trump Slump

The market knows that a trade war and US decline is coming, and are reacting accordingly

[mahatmakanejeeves]

7. TWSJ.: 5 Things to Watch in the June {Bureau of Labor Statistics} Jobs Report

I'll work on getting a link from Twitter for this.

And here it is:

What to watch in the June jobs report: payrolls, unemployment rates, participation & wages http://on.wsj.com/2t9vpo3

Link to tweet

5 Things to Watch in the June Jobs Report

The Labor Department releases its June employment report Friday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect employers added 174,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.

6 JUL 2017 7:39AM BY JEFFREY SPARSHOTT

https://twitter.com/jeffsparshott
[e-mail]

1 Slower Gains

U.S. employers added 138,000 jobs in May, capping off a relatively soft three-month stretch. Over the past year, nonfarm payrolls have increased by an average of 189,000 jobs per month, a pace that may be difficult to match if workers are increasingly scarce while the labor market tightens. “Filling new openings will continue to become more difficult for employers,” said Mark Simenstad, chief investment strategist at Thrivent Asset Management.
....

3 Underemployment

While 4.3% was the headline unemployment number, the Labor Department tracks alternative rates. A measure known as the U-6 includes Americans too discouraged to search for jobs and part-time workers who would prefer to work full time. It’s fallen more than a percentage point over the past year and most recently landed at 8.4%. Another notch down would be a positive development for American workers.
....

5 Bigger Payday?

Private-sector workers saw their hourly earnings grow 2.5%, on average, in the year through May. Wage gains have been consistent, but there has been little sign of a breakout. It’s not entirely clear if that’s because there is still a pool of workers available to pull off the sidelines, or if employers are simply unable to pass on the increased cost of bigger paychecks. “There has been little sign of wage pressures building over the past year or so,” said Michael Pearce, economist at Capital Economics.