Chinese Export Growth Tumbles

[alp227]

Source: NYT

Dismally feeble trade data from China on Friday provided another round of evidence that its economy is struggling to pick up speed, and fanned expectations that the authorities in Beijing would step up their efforts to buttress growth ahead of a key leadership transition this autumn.

The growth in overseas shipments ground to a near halt in July, with exports up just 1 percent from a year earlier, far below expectations and well beneath the 11.3 percent seen in June.

Imports, too, disappointed, with a rise of 4.7 percent, underscoring that domestic demand remains weak despite steps during the past months aimed at bolstering bank lending and infrastructure-building activity.

Data released Thursday had painted a similarly disappointing picture: industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all grew less rapidly than economists had projected.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/11/business/global/chinese-export-growth-tumbles.html

[WinstonSmith4740]

1. Can't say I'm surprised.

Their economy has been based on pushing cheap crap on the rest of the world by paying slave labor wages. Their quality control manufacturing standards are practically non-existent, and as the last few years have shown us, they have no qualms about putting out dangerous, and sometimes deadly products. I saw a report on TV about 3 weeks ago that said (ironically) that Chinese women seek out American products for their children (like baby food, clothes, and toys) because they just don't trust the stuff manufactured in their own country.

I think a lot of people are finding out that avoiding buying stuff made in China may be difficult right now, but not impossible. I've gotten to the point that if I really don't need it, I don't buy it if it's made there. I buy American made whenever possible, and I think (I hope) more folks are beginning to realize that saving a couple of bucks on something isn't worth it if it costs your neighbor, and ultimately you, your job. Especially since all that's really happening is there's more profit going into the pockets of the corporate fat cats. I mean seriously. The recent flap about the Olympic uniforms was a perfect example. A man's uniform (blazer, slacks, shirt, tie, hat) came in at over $1000. The blazer alone was over $600. You can't convince me that couldn't have been done for less in this country, designer label included.

[a_random_us_citizen]

7. Slow Down is inevitable... economic failure, highly doubt it

I think a lot of people are finding out that avoiding buying stuff made in China may be difficult right now, but not impossible. I've gotten to the point that if I really don't need it, I don't buy it if it's made there. I buy American made whenever possible, and I think (I hope) more folks are beginning to realize that saving a couple of bucks on something isn't worth it if it costs your neighbor, and ultimately you, your job

Can't agree more, but the problem is 10% the consumer and 90% the companies. Many north american and European firms have made their factories in China. Why? because of cheap labour.

Everyone agrees with you about the poor Chinese product quality, but if an IPhone or a Dell laptop or a Philips Kettle, or Black & Decker vacuum machine components are 95% made in China? As a consumer, what are you supposed to do?

I do understand our fear from China's growth on Democracy and human rights... but on the other hand... saying that their economy is on the verge of collapse is a form of Denial of the reality.

Here are some facts people are choosing to deny: China's GDP growth

1- China had a consistent economic (GDP growth) since 1979
2- From 2001 to 2011 alone, China had 174 % GDP growth compare to 17.8 % growth in the US... 10 times faster
3- If china's GDP growth averaged at 17.4 per year in the last 10 years, a slow down is inevitable as it closes the Gap between its economy and the western economies
4- China's GDP slow down is partly due to the the drop in exports, due to European and north american economic slow down

[bemildred]

2. Growth has to stop sometime, the planet is finite.

The future choices are managed equilibrium or crash and burn.

[sofa king]

3. Pretty soon I'll be able to make my own cheap crap.

I haven't seen a single public source acknowledge what the mathematicians (particularly fans of John von Neumann) must certainly know by now.

We are quickly approaching the steep part of a hyperbolic manufacturing curve, as self-replicating 3D printers become a reality. Faster than anyone seems to guess now, the need for exported goods is going to disappear virtually overnight as local manufacturers gain the ability to build any part within beautiful tolerances, limited only by raw materials, power, and for awhile after that, human assemblers.

The big-boxes will die out quickly, because consumer products will be built within the home or at corner manufacturing shops. There will be no storage costs, no shipping costs, and the products will be tailored to the precise needs of the local population.

But the big-box buildings will be highly valuable to local manufacturers, so I expect the parking lots to still be crowded with people. But they'll be there to make money instead of handing it over to filthy rich corporations. Don't worry about them; they'll still find a way to steal a slice of your pie at every stage, but they won't have us by the balls like they do now.

If you've got a kid, you might encourage that child to look into mechanical engineering. Someday soon, the engineers will again rule the world.

[bemildred]

4. There will be a big fight over giving up the central distribution model.

They will call it anarchy.

[sofa king]

5. They'll try to fight it, for sure.

But I do not think there is any way to actually stop it. If they try to outlaw 3D printers, that will only increase the potential profit margin, encourage shadow-factories to use stolen designs, and create an enormous black market for counterfeit goods. Look at what China is doing already--entire industries devoted to creating knock-offs and counterfeits--and imagine that multiplying on itself every few weeks or months because every machine built can spend its idle time building a copy of itself.

The illegal products will be better than the originals in some cases, thus increasing their appeal. Illegal game consoles won't be hobbled by DRM and anti-copy features, and will have more memory and storage. Illegal disc players won't be region limited. Illegal DVRs will copy whatever you tell them to copy, and will skip commercials when retail versions won't. Illegal iPhones and tablets won't be shackled to proprietary Apple hardware and software. Illegal paper shredders without safety guards will be able to actually shred paper. Illegal toilets will work with one flush. And so on.

So we'd all better get the hell on board with this, because the train is leaving the station whether governments and corporations are on board or not.

[bemildred]

6. Agreed. nt