Payroll employment rises 200,000 in December; jobless rate (8.5%) continues to trend down

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Payroll employment rises 200,000 in December; jobless rate (8.5%) continues to trend down

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Link: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- NOVEMBER 2011


The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in retail trade, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Government employment continued to trend down.

Household Survey Data

In November, the unemployment rate declined by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6 percent. From April through October, the rate held in a narrow range from 9.0 to 9.2 percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 13.3 million, was down by 594,000 in November. The labor force, which is the sum of the unemployed and employed, was down by a little more than half that amount. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men fell by 0.5 percentage point to 8.3 percent in November. The jobless rate for whites (7.6 percent) also declined, while the rates for adult women (7.8 percent), teenagers (23.7 percent), blacks (15.5 percent), and Hispanics (11.4 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In November, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs declined by 432,000 to 7.6 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.7 million and accounted for 43.0 percent of the unemployed. (See tables A-11 and A-12.)

== == == ==

http://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm#OEUS
Monthly Employment Reports

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to "Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization." Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm
Employment Situation

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

From the February 10, 2011, "DOL Newsletter":

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The "household survey," or http://www.bls.gov/cps/ "Current Population Survey (CPS)," involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The "establishment survey," or http://www.bls.gov/ces/ "Current Employment Statistics (CES)," surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.

= = = = =

ETA, 10:33 a.m.

In a response, rdking647 said "U6 also fell sharply."

U-6, "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force," can be found in Table A-15, "Alternative measures of labor underutilization." I've linked to it.

Thanks for the response.

[Inuca]

1. YeSSSSS!!! n/t

[Stuart G]

2. k & r thanks for posting...nt

[Inuca]

3. Or as Brian Beutler just tweeted

We're 200,000 jobs in the blah this month.

(Santorum)

[Surya Gayatri]

18. Bwaaaaahaaaaa! n/t

[geckosfeet]

4. Positive indicators. I don't place much stock in the gubmint calculated unemployment

rate as a quantitative measure, but do see it as a useful qualitative indicator.

I do know that there are lots of new faces popping up where I work.

on edit: BTW - the seasonal temps have been cut loose - the new faces are permanent hires.

[rdking647]

5. U6 also fell sharply

the broadest measure of unemployment fell to 15.2% from 15.6%

[GusFring]

6. It was sickening watching that Morning Joe d1ck try to take credit away from Obama. Nobody was even

talking about Obama. He just made a point to say this has nothing to do w/ Barack Obama.

[steel4ever]

8. ABC GMA....

Reported the news, then immediately gave it a negative slant. Amazing how the media jerk people around.

[Dawson Leery]

25. Dead intern Joe will never give any Democrat credit for anything good.

[IamK]

26. Can Preisdent Obama claim the congress won't let him do anything but then take credit if there

is positive news on the economy? Thats a fine line to walk.....

[NBachers]

28. No, but he can say, "Despite the efforts of the Republicans to sabotage our economy . . . "

[BumRushDaShow]

7. K&R

Let's keep this going!

[Roland99]

9. good to see. really good to see...but let's see what happens trend-wise. Esp. considering this >>>

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-gains-200000-jobs-in-december-2012-01-06

The transportation and warehouse sector, for instance, hired 50,000 workers last month to lead the way, but 42,000 of those positions were for couriers and messengers.

In addition, the retail industry filled 28,000 positions while leisure and hospitality businesses such as bars and restaurants created 21,000 jobs.

Economists say job increases in those sectors are often reversed in January. As a result, few are predicting steady 200,000 payroll increases in the months ahead, especially given high U.S. debt levels, the ongoing European debt crisis and cutbacks in government spending.

[LynneSin]

13. New Jobs in the Bar & Hospitality industry is really promising news.

It means that the general public is feeling confident enough to start dining out again.

I live in an area of Wilmington that has a high number of decent restaurants from your typical pub all the way to upscale Steakhouse. When I first bought my house, I found that if I got home too late to my house, especially during the latter part of the week, that very rarely I could find a parking space near my house. Alot of restaurant patrons will park on our street.

The last couple of years I've noticed that it was easier and easier to find parking near my house - mainly because people weren't dining out as much. But lately the problem is reoccuring again. It's frustrating but I know several of the business owners and I'm happy that business is picking up for them.

[Johnny2X2X]

10. Good News

Some good momentum to this economy and these numbers represent real job growth and an improving economy.

Why is it that people just cannot accept the unemployment numbers no matter who is president. This is calculated the same way as it was under Bush, sure there are intricacies, but the number is the number and it's good for comaring the state of the job market to itself.

The Freepers are in complete and utter denial that this is happening. Obama has created more jobs in the lat 30 months than Bush did in 96 months.

[FedUp_Queer]

41. You are correct.

Of course, Obama could have created just one job which would have been better than Bush. I will say this: the problem with the unemployment rate is that Reagan changed it to leave out those who have stopped looking out of despair. In addition, I believe that the rate most commonly published counts a person "employed" who works just one hour in a given 7 day period. If we counted our unemployed the way the EU does, we would be higher. Conversely, the BLS does a calculation where it converts Europe's to our calculation. Note that we are considerably higher. This seems to suggest that we way undercount and, if the BLS counted using Eurostat's formulae, our rate would be nearly twice the published rate.

http://www.bls.gov/fls/intl_unemployment_rates_monthly.htm#Rchart1

[JoePhilly]

11. POP goes the right wing head!!!!

[LynneSin]

12. At 8.5% - Faux News can still round it up to 9%

[Cognitive_Resonance]

14. Wonderful news. 2012 is going to be a much better year. nt

[hay rick]

15. Appreciate the constructive editing.

Incorporating downthread concerns in OP helps expand discussion in OP instead of watching it splinter into disparate subthreads. Also saves time for those who arrive later and don't want to sift through all the subthreads.

On the subject: expect that this is blip rather than trend. Hope I'm wrong.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

22. "Incorporating downthread concerns in OP

helps expand discussion in OP instead of watching it splinter into disparate subthreads."

Thanks for the kind words. That's possible now with the unlimited time period for editing. I figure that if I start a thread, I bear some responsibility for keeping it running right.

I have yet to figure out how to give quoted material a special highlighting or how to make links other than by cutting and pasting them.

[cyberpj]

16. On last night's news they followed this report with the huge increase in jobs at Dollar Stores.

Yep. That's just where I want to work if I lose my corporate position.

Many people fail to understand the VALUE of the jobs gained vs that of those lost.

Also, many of the re-employed are now working at un-benefitted positions.

Why people think this is a plus for the country's economy I don't understand.

[magical thyme]

19. typically re-employment begins with temporary positions

without benefits, as companies fear making a commitment. It is cheaper and easier to cut loose temps than "permanent" employees if the turnaround fails.

The increase in dollar store employees is troublesome. Shows where the increase in shopping is. Their gain is Wallie's loss, I guess.

I lost my corporate position 10 years ago. I'm now working at 25% of what I used to make. As if that's not bad enough, I took on tens of thousands in student loans to qualify for this job. Just in time for health care (delivery, not insurance) to really start hitting the skids.

So we're still stumbling along, but maybe the balls that Obama seems to have recently found will remain in play and he will start taking serious action. I'm praying right now for the income-based-repayment program to bail me out. Since it's clear retirement is out, at least let me reduce my monthly payments drastically for 25 years and die in debt before income taxes are due on the "forgiven" portion, instead of throwing me out in the street now.

[FedUp_Queer]

42. This really begs the question.

Does an increase in real wages accompany this job increase? What percentage of these jobs were temporary for the Christmas holiday?

[yellowcanine]

17. It's a hopeful ending for 2011. Hope it continues and picks up in 2012.

I honestly don't know if it has much to do with Obama. I think larger forces are at work which are out of the control of any President. I do think that the bank and auto bailouts and the stimulus money for infrastructure development helped keep the recession from being a lot worse. So Obama gets some credit for that.

[Surya Gayatri]

20. Super news for the beginning

of the new year! Let the jobless % keep inching downward between now and next Nov.
Thanks for posting mahatma.
SG

[caseymoz]

21. Not good news, yet. But at least not bad news.

We need 300-400 thousand jobs a month to pull us out of this, but if we create 200,000 more or so for the next three months, then I'll take it as good news.

So, this depression is now four years old. Within a string of losses, a draw feels live victory, but it's still only a draw.

[Beavker]

23. I was listening to the Radio

and a news break came on and someone interviewed a guy that had been out of work since 2009. The noted it gives him a bit of hope, but when they asked who he was voting for (I'm not sure if it was for the possible General or the Primary) he said he was undecided, but possibly Mitt Romney.

Wow. The guy that kills jobs as his business is going to get the vote of the guy that can't find a job in over 2 years.

USA! USA! Morons golore, corporate owned press fail!

[nxylas]

24. It's not failure

They're doing what they're supposed to do.

[FedUp_Queer]

43. It's sad.

The capitalists (right-wingers) in this country have convinced the working class of the following:

Government is bad

Unions are bad

Taxing the rich is bad

We need to keep the gays from marrying

We need to outlaw abortion.

Meanwhile, it is unions which gave us things like a minimum wage, vacation and sick leave, insurance, retirement (note that less unionization has meant less pensions (more 401(k)s), less vacation time and conversely more hours with stagnant or less pay, higher insurance premiums (more co-pays, more exclusions, etc.). The demonization of government means that the meme that "government can do it better" is left unquestioned while, meanwhile, nobody answers the question of who is going to fix the roads, the schools, bridges and other infrastructure. How many states have outlawed gay marriage? 43? How are their economies? My home state of Ohio (haven't lived there for years), outlawed gay marriage and even civil unions. Odd...the only part of the state where there is any growth is in Columbus. Factories are gone from Dayton, Youngstown and Cleveland. Cleveland is becoming the new Gary, Indiana. Until we lefties get off our butts and get the truth out about who really did this, we are going to see more like this gentlemen.

[merkozy]

27. Confessions of a tortured statistic

You may see the approaching storm and think, 'Wow! This is the biggest storm ever!' But ask a veteran storm chaser and he could tell you that isn't technically a storm yet. I have closely followed the tall recovery tales for almost 4 years now and what continues to surprise me is how short our collective memory is. I can tell you I have heard these stories before. Tales of some blessed man or woman taking sight of the Land of Milk 'n Honey, even as it remains Sinai Desert as far as the eye could see. Mark my words: within the next few weeks/months there will be another single statistic sweeping us off our pedestal. I will come back on this forum to commisserate with fellow 1%ers.

http://www.maverickonomics.com

[Tx4obama]

29. Here's a link to the December Jobs 'Bikini Graph' Chart

Here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10175171

[eridani]

35. The bikini graph is an excellent portrayal of a truly massive, ongoing disaster

It illustrates that we will recover the jobs lost in the recession sometime around 2020, which will still be a net loss due to new entrants to the labor force. The combined areas in the lower half are vastly larger than the combined areas in the upper half. Why in fucking hell anyone would celebrate this utterly disastrous "new normal" is beyond me.



Percent job losses in post WW II recessions
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-11-04/markets/30358549_1_recession-payrolls-report-post-wwii

You will notice that this recession is the very worst ever. The second worst was the 2001 recession, and the third worst the 1990 recession. That's three jobless recoveries in a row, and few in DC even give a shit. Why?

[tabasco]

37. Yes, we should hope for unemployment to go up!

Then, you can celebrate too!

[eridani]

40. We should stop spitting on the long-term unemployed by

--spouting drooling Panglossian simpleminded slogans, and pretending we are not still in very, very deep shit.

Obama's initiatives did not fix the economy, just as FDR's initiatives had not fixed the economy in 1935. In both cases the initiatives were helpful, but woefully inadequate. FDR did not spout a bunch of happy happy cheery cheery Panglossian bullshit to win in 1936. He acknowledged the ongoing crisis, and put the blame for it where it belonged--on plutocrats and Republicans. He told the people he was on their side and he meant it.

When is Obama going to do this instead of pretending that more time is the only fix we need? The trends are that we are completely fucked for another 10 years at minimum unless much stronger action is taken.

[NickB79]

30. I wonder what the pay rate is for these new jobs?

Did we wipe out a bunch of jobs that paid $20/hr in the Great Recession, and now replaced them with jobs that pay $12/hr with much reduced health care benefits, pensions, etc?

[workinclasszero]

31. Freepers are in mourning

[freshwest]

34. With picture for this thread, I wonder when the GOP will take on the mantle of bleeding hearts...

They used to use that on us, now they they're crying at the drop of a hat for some reason.

[emaxwell1313]

32. What about the private sector ? And if people believe the private sector should get the credit ?

It seems that many people might think that it was only due to the private sector and not because of what Obama did. How can we prove that Obama should get credit for improving the economy with his policies ? And are we convinced that the economy is getting better to the point that mass riots over unemployment and economic crisis arent in the future ? I think we should be sure to evaluate how much hope and promise the economy shows of truly picking up ?

[Politicub]

33. Don't forget Poland!

[Johnny2X2X]

36. Righties freaking out

Been fun debating the Righties since this news came out. Just awful news for them to hear. Of course almost every one of them comes with the "seasonal hires" meme. When I tell them that the numbers are always seasonally adjusted they usually don't even respond.

Forget Politics, I just hope that this momentum continues because there are far too many people out ther sufering.

[Jim_Shorts]

38. 8.5%? - If you believe that...

Beautiful Florida beachfront property for sale

[Johnny2X2X]

39. Fun fun fun

Absolutely busting a Rightie up on a board I frequent right now. He made the mistake of saying his buddy "A PHD college professor economist", told him that the good numbers are all due to seasonal hires. As if any economist wouldn't know that seasonal hiring is accounted for in the Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers.

He's just repeating the RW talking point and I called him on it, now he has no way out because he can't just say he didn't know because he made up an imaginary friend who is a "PHD economist".

LOL, this is fun. Keep up the good fight everyone. What we post ob boards and in comments of articles is important.

[90-percent]

44. Good news in a partisan battle kind of way

However, I don't see the many systemic changes needed to return to middle class prosperity and equitable wealth distribution.

I fear some new bubble that I will only even learn about only after the crisis either empties my pension or kills my employers industry. Geeezzz, there's a STUDENT LOAN CRISIS in the brewings now?

I love OWS and support and believe in most of what they are doing, but in my understanding of what this country used to be, the proof of systemic change must now come with Wall Street and Big Banks being held to account, in the form of serious jail time for those that game the system and rot society in the manner of Al Capone and Lucky Luciano. Weren't there in the neighborhood of 800 to 1200 incarcerations for the Savings and loan scandal of 1988-89? This has happened before and now there doesn't seem to be the will to ENFORCE THE FUCKING LAWS with respect to the rampant Wall Street and Bank fraud. Geitner and Bernake and others of their ilk must be prosecuted for their massive crimes.

Our institutions are infested with greedy and corrupt sociopaths.

-90% Jimmy