EXCLUSIVE: Dem Leads In New Poll Of Hotly Contested Pennsylvania House Race
Source: Talking Points Memo
By Cameron Joseph | March 9, 2018 9:29 am
Democrats are on the verge of a major upset victory deep in Trump country, according to a new bipartisan poll shared first with TPM.
Democrat Conor Lamb leads Republican Rick Saccone by 48 percent to 44 percent in a survey conducted by RABA Research, a bipartisan firm. That would mark a huge upset in a conservative district that stretches from Pittsburgh to the West Virginia border that President Trump won by 20 points in 2016. It would give Democrats their first House special election victory of the Trump era on Tuesday night.
That marks the largest lead for Lamb seen in any public polling so far but its not far from what other public and private polls have found in recent days and weeks on the race, most of which have found a margin-of-error race with Lamb having the momentum. Two other public polls of the race found each candidate with a three-point lead, and Republicans are privately sounding more than a little gloomy about Saccones chances on Tuesday.
Trump plans to campaign there on Saturday to try to goose GOP base turnout for Saccone, who has mightily struggled with fundraising and getting his name out there as GOP outside groups have had to pick up the slack with millions of dollars worth of TV ads. But according to the survey, the president is currently unpopular with the districts most likely voters, with 48 percent of those saying they definitely or probably plan to vote in the race disapproving of his job performance to just 44 percent who approve. Similarly, the poll suggests a lopsided edge for Democratic enthusiasm: Though the district is fairly solidly Republican, 41 percent of those surveyed said they were Democratic and 40 percent identified as Republican.
Read more: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/exclusive-dem-leads-in-new-poll-of-hotly-contested-pennsylvania-house-race
keepleft101
(82 posts)mountain grammy
(26,598 posts)bucolic_frolic
(43,057 posts)Make Pittsburgh Glow Again?
muntrv
(14,505 posts)GaryCnf
(1,399 posts)I do not like prosecutors and my views on centrism are well-known
BUT
I went to Montgomery twice to help Doug Jones because I knew what he stood for and I knew it had got lost in Moore's "Pedogate,"
AND
I am ashamed that I did not know more about Connor Lamb soon enough to do any more than send him money.
IF anyone here is in his district and has any thought of staying home, put those thoughts out of your head.
VOTE FOR CONNOR LAMB
BumRushDaShow
(128,486 posts)Then that whole district will go away and will generally become the 12th with different boundaries.
GaryCnf
(1,399 posts)DeminPennswoods
(15,265 posts)nt
GaryCnf
(1,399 posts)barbtries
(28,769 posts)#BlueWave2018
mopinko
(70,015 posts)ALL.ABOUT.THIS.RACE.
lamb better be out there explaining this con using little, tiny words.
mountain grammy
(26,598 posts)Will they be suckers again?
mopinko
(70,015 posts)the prolly will tho.
RandomAccess
(5,210 posts)what kind of voting machines do they have??
murielm99
(30,717 posts)NO paper trail.
Does anyone really think we will win this one? It would have to be a landslide to overcome the cheating.
RandomAccess
(5,210 posts)a landslide bigger than they expect. And they already know they're in trouble.
iluvtennis
(19,835 posts)...he'll brag about how wonderful and great and all of his illiterate adjectives when he campaigns for Saccone on Saturday.
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)NBachers
(17,081 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,486 posts)That district isn't "fairly solidly Republican". The Democrats tend to be more conservative and vote for Republicans in the federal elections - particularly if there are no Democrats or weak Democrats on the ballot. There is at least 1 or 2 Dem state reps in there, despite the wacky configuration.
TeamPooka
(24,207 posts)IronLionZion
(45,380 posts)It's good for the people to have a choice in their congressional elections.
I hope Lamb wins on Tuesday. Even if he doesn't we have an even better chance in November with the more competitive district lines.
Turnout is key. And this can be a big motivator and indicator for our party to have a big blue wave in other Trump areas.
Initech
(100,039 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)GOTV Pennsylvania!!!