Home builder confidence tumbles the most since 2014 as housing headwinds catch up

[Roland99]

Source: Marketwatch

NAHB, the building industry’s Washington lobby, noted in a press release that the reading of 60 is still “positive,” but that “customers are taking a pause.” The eight-point plunge is only reminiscent of the nine-point drop just after the 9/11 attacks and one other instance, a 10-point drop, in early 2014. The overall reading is the lowest since mid-2016. November’s results badly missed the Econoday consensus of a flat reading.

In November, the sub-gauge of current conditions fell seven points to 67, the tracker of expected future conditions plunged 10 points to 65, and the gauge of buyer traffic was down eight points, to 45.

Any reading over 50 signals improvement.

...

But such a sharp drop may presage something more sinister than a slower pace of building. Home builders were one of the first groups to feel the top of the market cycle just before the Great Recession. In June 2005, NAHB’s index hit 72, its cycle high. It started to tumble the next month, and by mid-2006 stood in contraction territory.

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-builder-confidence-tumbles-the-most-since-2014-as-housing-headwinds-catch-up-2018-11-19?mod=bnbh

---

"Sentiment didn’t fall this sharply from one month to another even during the worst of the housing crisis"

[Guppy]

1. This is not surprising.

I just sold a house last month and two over the last 6 months. Both got top dollar and we sold them in just a few days( 99% on one and 100% on the other). I felt we were at peak. We did our houses right including knocking down walls and gutting one. That being said my realtor told us it is slow out there.

Trump did the worst thing possible. He primed the pump in the middle of a good economy and over stimulated it. The result is increasing the fed rate to hold off inflation.

His tariffs on their own will hike inflation. So we will b having a double problem Increased inflation and increased interest.. A double whammy. Watch out as our economy will be in a state of uncertainty.

[sandensea]

3. The Trump slump

Thanks for the first-person perspective, Guppy. You confirmed what I think many of us suspected.

Of course, from a Republican adminsitration it's almost a given.

Congrats on your stellar sales, btw! That takes talent.

[watoos]

4. Well, I'm on Social Security

and I got a notice that I'm getting a 2.8% cost of living increase because the cost of living went up 2.8% this year.

[mbusby]

11. Yeah, I got one also...

...about enough for two Big Macs.

[MrScorpio]

2. Trump economy, here we come!

[DownriverDem]

5. Young People

Young people are not buying or building houses. This will affect everything - furniture, kitchen stuff, outdoor stuff, washing machines & dryers etc.

[trc]

7. They can't buy houses

their student loan debt is already the size of a mortgage..

[DownriverDem]

13. Yep.

They have student loans and they don't make a lot of money.

[katmondoo]

6. They are building like crazy here in Gainesville, FL

Lots of new apt buildings, more hospitals and emergency care facilities, new homes. Where ever you go there is new construction. For the Obama years, nothing, everything at a standstill. It is creating lots of traffic problems and where are the people coming from to buy all these properties?

[snort]

12. Russia.

[vsrazdem]

8. Lowe's just reported they are closing stores. This does not bode well.

That means no more remodels, because people cannot afford it. I think this is the beginning of another housing slump. I keep getting bombarded by my mortgage company to refinance my loan, take the money and remodel or pay off bills. No thank you. I will sit this one out.

[mastermind]

9. but, but, but

we have trillion dollar corporations

[mastermind]

10. 2006-2007 redux nt