...Iran and Russia will still come out on top. The OPEC Cartel was effective when Iran's oil was limited due to sanctions and Russia was under a different economic system under Soviet rule. Both Iran and Russia can produce oil at cheaper prices than the OPEC Cartel. OPEC can cut output and limit supply, it will raise the price...but Iran and Russia will reap the greatest rewards.
Unless of course, they, Russia and Iran, decide to fill the "hole". In which case, OPEC produces less, but doesn't see a rise in prices and thus revenue. But rather a decrease in revenue due to less production.
This next part is anecdotal, went to college with a lot of Middle East students....with obvious connections. Many weren't too bright. During one of our final exams in our senior year...let me back up a bit, it wasn't uncommon to turn over your test and blue book on your desk, get up, and take a walk down the hall and compose your thoughts...Being and Economics major isn't exactly easy...well at least the school I went to. And although you had a few hours to do this test, usually there were three...sometimes four questions and you picked two you wanted to answer. In other-words the answers had to be very thorough.
So during this long engagement, the Professor who was essentially just "standing watch" would also occasionally wander the hall when a lot of the class decided on their own to take a break. The Professor had just walked out and I thought to myself, "soon as I finish this paragraph, I'll take a break". Then I saw it happen, two "connected" students started sharing answers....some walked back in and started comparing their answers. I walked out and ignored it, they could cheat their exams, but will fail in the end. Took my break, came back, finished the exam.
Later when we got our results, I got a "B", the Professor stated he was informed of people being "dishonorable". And as a refugee from Communist China, he stated that he didn't care who was cheating, but given his experience in life, they all come to a bad end. Later, he was my Professor for my Senior Seminar/Project, I chose income inequality as my study....despite being a Greenspan worshiper at the time (and everyone knew I was), I knew it was good to challenge my thinking. I had 10 pages of written (and very dry...as my sister put it when I asked her to proof read it) analysis, 100+ pages of data backing that analysis up...declaring the opposite of what I wanted. This may have been my first move from being conservative...to going "left". Anyway, I got an A+....the second I got from him, the first was during my junior year when asked to compare Clinton and Dole's economic plans, I shredded, burned and buried President Clinton's economic plan.
But back to the point because I'm wandering here...and have had a "healthy" dose of wine...if what I experienced of certain classmates are representative of the rest... I see some serious miss-steps coming from OPEC.
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