Brexit: MPs to debate withdrawal agreement only tomorrow to safeguard 22 May extension - live news

[brooklynite]

Source: The Guardian

Here is the text of the motion being debated tomorrow.

That this House notes the European Council Decision of 22 March 2019 taken in agreement with the United Kingdom extending the period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union, which provides for an extension to the Article 50 period to 22 May 2019 only if the House of Commons approves the Withdrawal Agreement by 29 March 2019;

notes that if the House does not do so by that date the Article 50 period will only as a matter of law be extended to 12 April 2019 and that any extension beyond 22 May 2019 would require the UK to bring forward the necessary Day of Poll Order to hold elections to the European Parliament;

notes that Article 184 of the Withdrawal Agreement refers to the Political Declaration between the UK and EU agreed on 25 November 2018, but that the EU has stated it remains open to negotiating changes to the Political Declaration;

notes that the House is currently undertaking deliberations to identify whether there is a design for the future relationship that commands its support;

notes that even should changes be sought to the Political Declaration, leaving the European Union with a deal still requires the Withdrawal Agreement;

declares that it wishes to leave the EU with an agreement as soon as possible and does not wish to have a longer extension;

therefore approves the Withdrawal Agreement, the Joint Instrument and the Unilateral Declaration laid before the House on 11 March 2019 so that the UK can leave the EU on 22 May 2019;notes that this approval does not by itself meet the requirements of section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act;

and resolves that it is content to proceed to the next steps of this process, including fulfilling section 13 of this Act.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/28/brexit-latest-news-live-no-deal-on-12-april-most-likely-unless-mps-back-mays-deal-or-alternative-says-letwin-politics-live

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Golly, what will happen this time?

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. Their hope is that they can attract some opposition members without the Political Declaration

It still looks extremely difficult for May’s deal to pass because the Democratic Unionist party is still not backing it and up to 30 Conservative Eurosceptics remain hardened against it.

No 10 hopes that some MPs from other parties could switch sides if they are not voting on the political declaration.
...
However, Labour said it could not vote for leaving the EU without an idea of where the UK was heading in its relationship.
...
No 10 acknowledges that the withdrawal agreement and political declaration would both ultimately have to be passed through parliament in order to leave the EU.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/28/brexit-theresa-may-to-ask-mps-to-vote-only-on-withdrawal-agreement

A long shot, but Bercow, the Speaker, has agreed this is substantively different from the earlier votes, so he's allowed this to go ahead.

Opinion (I have no idea how good this guy is):

This is a desperate attempt to meet the European council’s conditions for offering an extension to 22 May. If the withdrawal agreement does not pass this week, the UK will almost certainly be required to participate in European parliament elections as a condition of an extension beyond 12 April. Passing the withdrawal agreement without the political declaration would meet the conditions of the European council for the extension, but would not satisfy the domestic ratification requirements which would require a further act of parliament.
...
Theresa May’s latest manoeuvre almost certainly won’t work, and a general election to resolve the impasse seems increasingly likely – but tomorrow’s vote may help the Tory case in that election. The vote on the withdrawal agreement, even if it falls, would show that most Conservatives had fallen in line behind it. So the agreement would effectively become their manifesto in a Brexit election: “Vote Conservative, just get out”. Ironically, it would be the election that May had hoped to fight in 2017 when, instead of focusing on Brexit, voters concentrated on domestic concerns.

If an election were to occur, it seems likely that it would be scheduled for 23 May. That is the day European parliament elections are due to take place, meaning voters wouldn’t be asked to go to the polls twice. The UK’s participation in those elections is a condition set by the European council for the extension of the article 50 period beyond 12 April. It seems plausible that the Conservatives would promise that if they were given a majority at the general election, they would immediately pass the withdrawal agreement so that Britain could exit the EU before MEPs would take up their seats on 2 July.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/28/withdrawal-agreement-separation-brexit-theresa-may-election