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U.S. Economy Grew by 2.1% in Second Quarter
Source: New York Times
Economic growth slowed last spring, but don’t panic — the decade-long expansion has lost some momentum, but there’s little reason to think it is about to stall out.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy, rose at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday. That represents a significant deceleration from the 3.1 percent growth rate in the first quarter.
But the big swings in the quarterly data are almost certainly exaggerated. The larger trend shows that the economy has cooled since last year, when tax cuts and government spending gave growth a temporary jolt. But the strong job market and robust consumer spending are keeping the recovery on track, even as trade tensions and a slowing global economy are threatening to knock it off course.
In addition to its estimate of second-quarter growth, the Commerce Department also revised G.D.P. data back to 2014. Such updates, which take place every summer, incorporate new data from the Internal Revenue Service, the Census Bureau and other sources that weren’t available when initial estimates were released.
Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/26/business/economy/gdp-economy.html
Under Obama, this type of figure was considered by the right as "anemic".
20 replies
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= new reply since forum marked as read
next Friday
I.e., it is independent from what is happening with the climate (although certainly the figures can, have, and will continue to be impacted by the climate).
Economy
U.S. economy slowed in the spring but remains healthy, expanding at a 2.1% annual rate
By Heather Long
Economics correspondent
July 26 at 9:03 AM
The U.S. economy slowed in the spring but continues to grow at a healthy pace that shows little sign of a recession. ... The economy expanded at a 2.1 percent annual rate from April through June, the U.S. Commerce Department said, a downgrade from the first quarter’s surprisingly strong 3.1 percent pace.
Consumer spending accounted for the bulk of U.S. growth as Americans bought heavily again in the spring. Business spending dried up, however, turning negative for the first time since early 2016. Many executives blame uncertainty around President Trump’s trade war for their hesitancy to spend as much as they did a year ago.
“Last year was a fiscal sugar rush. This year it’s starting to fade,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan.
....
The Commerce Department also released revisions to growth statistics for the past five years, a common practice that government statisticians and economists undertake from time to time to incorporate additional data from the Internal Revenue Service and other agencies. ... The revisions showed that growth was unchanged at 2.9 percent last year, but it was slightly higher in 2017, coming in at 2.4 percent after the revisions, up from the originally reported 2.2 percent.
Heather Long is an economics correspondent. Before joining The Washington Post, she was a senior economics reporter at CNN and a columnist and deputy editor at the Patriot-News in Harrisburg, Pa. She also worked at an investment firm in London. Follow https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong
U.S. economy slowed in the spring but remains healthy, expanding at a 2.1% annual rate
By Heather Long
Economics correspondent
July 26 at 9:03 AM
The U.S. economy slowed in the spring but continues to grow at a healthy pace that shows little sign of a recession. ... The economy expanded at a 2.1 percent annual rate from April through June, the U.S. Commerce Department said, a downgrade from the first quarter’s surprisingly strong 3.1 percent pace.
Consumer spending accounted for the bulk of U.S. growth as Americans bought heavily again in the spring. Business spending dried up, however, turning negative for the first time since early 2016. Many executives blame uncertainty around President Trump’s trade war for their hesitancy to spend as much as they did a year ago.
“Last year was a fiscal sugar rush. This year it’s starting to fade,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan.
....
The Commerce Department also released revisions to growth statistics for the past five years, a common practice that government statisticians and economists undertake from time to time to incorporate additional data from the Internal Revenue Service and other agencies. ... The revisions showed that growth was unchanged at 2.9 percent last year, but it was slightly higher in 2017, coming in at 2.4 percent after the revisions, up from the originally reported 2.2 percent.
Heather Long is an economics correspondent. Before joining The Washington Post, she was a senior economics reporter at CNN and a columnist and deputy editor at the Patriot-News in Harrisburg, Pa. She also worked at an investment firm in London. Follow https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong
Bureau of Economic Analysis | U.S. Department of Commerce
EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, Friday, July 26, 2019 BEA 19-36
Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.
The Bureau's second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 29, 2019.
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).
The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These downturns were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and federal government spending.
Current-dollar GDP increased 4.6 percent, or $239.1 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $21.34 trillion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.9 percent, or $201.0 billion (table 1 and table 3).
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent.
{snip}
Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.
The Bureau's second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 29, 2019.
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).
The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These downturns were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and federal government spending.
Current-dollar GDP increased 4.6 percent, or $239.1 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $21.34 trillion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.9 percent, or $201.0 billion (table 1 and table 3).
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent.
{snip}
This might help determine what the Fed will do with interest rates (where some keep demanding 0.5% drop but I doubt that will happen).
"The one that was going to propel us to 4% or 5% GDP growth rates as promised in the campaign? "
Yup. Supposed to be 4% growth and an "overheated economy" that would "pay for" the 1.5 trillion tax cuts. Yup. 
ECONOMY & JOBS
Strong Consumer Spending Supports Steady Growth in the Second Quarter of 2019
July 26, 2019 2 minute read
Council of Economic Advisers
Real GDP grew above market expectations in the second quarter of 2019, according to the advance estimate released this morning from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Growth was particularly strong in real consumer spending, which rose 4.3 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2019. This increase is notably higher than the 2.5 percent pace set in the preceding four quarters.
Though growth in the second quarter of 2019 is lower than in the first quarter, we estimate that the problems at Boeing subtracted 0.4 percentage point from second quarter annualized real growth. The sharp slowdown in aircraft shipments reduced equipment investment and exports, but were partially offset by an increase in aircraft inventory investment. Considering this issue, the strong growth set in the first quarter of 2019 of 3.1 percent and the 2.5 percent pace set in the second quarter—adjusting for Boeing’s safety problems—result in growth so far in 2019 of 2.8 percent at an annual rate. Not adjusting for Boeing’s safety problems, growth so far in 2019 of 2.6 percent at an annual rate far exceeds the growth projected by the final pre-2016 election forecasts of both the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for 2019 (see figure). The CBO projected growth of just 1.6 percent in 2019, while the FOMC projected real growth of just 1.8 percent on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis.
Evaluating the most persistent and well-measured components of real GDP, real private domestic final purchases (PDFP) typically provide a better signal for next quarter’s growth. In the second quarter of 2019, PDFP grew 3.2 percent at an annual rate, above the overall GDP growth. PDFP is the sum of consumer spending and fixed investment.
In addition to the advance estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter of 2019, BEA released revisions to growth in the first quarter of 2019. Real gross domestic income growth, which measures the income-side of output, was revised up in the first quarter of 2019, more than tripling from 1 percent to 3.2 percent. Most of the upward revision was accounted for by upwardly revised figures for wages and salaries as reported from the unemployment insurance tax system.
Strong Consumer Spending Supports Steady Growth in the Second Quarter of 2019
July 26, 2019 2 minute read
Council of Economic Advisers
Real GDP grew above market expectations in the second quarter of 2019, according to the advance estimate released this morning from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Growth was particularly strong in real consumer spending, which rose 4.3 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2019. This increase is notably higher than the 2.5 percent pace set in the preceding four quarters.
Though growth in the second quarter of 2019 is lower than in the first quarter, we estimate that the problems at Boeing subtracted 0.4 percentage point from second quarter annualized real growth. The sharp slowdown in aircraft shipments reduced equipment investment and exports, but were partially offset by an increase in aircraft inventory investment. Considering this issue, the strong growth set in the first quarter of 2019 of 3.1 percent and the 2.5 percent pace set in the second quarter—adjusting for Boeing’s safety problems—result in growth so far in 2019 of 2.8 percent at an annual rate. Not adjusting for Boeing’s safety problems, growth so far in 2019 of 2.6 percent at an annual rate far exceeds the growth projected by the final pre-2016 election forecasts of both the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for 2019 (see figure). The CBO projected growth of just 1.6 percent in 2019, while the FOMC projected real growth of just 1.8 percent on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis.
Evaluating the most persistent and well-measured components of real GDP, real private domestic final purchases (PDFP) typically provide a better signal for next quarter’s growth. In the second quarter of 2019, PDFP grew 3.2 percent at an annual rate, above the overall GDP growth. PDFP is the sum of consumer spending and fixed investment.
In addition to the advance estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter of 2019, BEA released revisions to growth in the first quarter of 2019. Real gross domestic income growth, which measures the income-side of output, was revised up in the first quarter of 2019, more than tripling from 1 percent to 3.2 percent. Most of the upward revision was accounted for by upwardly revised figures for wages and salaries as reported from the unemployment insurance tax system.
