Infected people without symptoms might be driving the spread of coronavirus more than we realized

[JudyM]

Source: CNN

... "We now know that asymptomatic transmission likely [plays] an important role in spreading this virus," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Osterholm added that it's "absolutely clear" that asymptomatic infection "surely can fuel a pandemic like this in a way that's going to make it very difficult to control."
...
"Asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic transmission are a major factor in transmission for Covid-19," said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine and longtime adviser to the CDC. "They're going to be the drivers of spread in the community."
Osterholm urged public officials to be clearer about the way the virus is spread.
"At the very beginning of the outbreak, we had many questions about how transmission of this virus occurred. And unfortunately, we saw a number of people taking very firm stances about it was happening this way or it wasn't happening this way. And as we have continued to learn how transmission occurs with this outbreak, it is clear that many of those early statements were not correct," he said.
"This is time for straight talk," he said. "This is time to tell the public what we know and don't know."
...
Seven of the 24 passengers tested positive for coronavirus. Four of those had no symptoms, and Ciesek was surprised to find that the viral load of the specimens from the asymptomatic patients was higher than the viral load of the specimens from the three patients who did have symptoms.
Viral load is a measure of the concentration of the virus in someone's respiratory secretions. A higher load means that someone is more likely to spread the infection to other people.
...
Early, large-scale studies using mathematical modelling of outbreaks in Tianjin, China, and Singapore in January and February have also found significant amounts of spread by people who had not yet developed symptoms... Canadian, Dutch and Singaporean researchers looked at the same outbreaks in Tianjin and Singapore and found that infection was transmitted on average 2.55 days and 2.89 days before symptom onset respectively in each location.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html

---

This has been reported before but never seems to have made it into MSM, at least that I've seen, and obviously directly conflicts with what our esteemed government is constantly telling us. It is enormously important for the control of the virus that everyone maintain greater distance and if at all possible, stay home to stop unknowingly spreading it. I cringe watching Rachel so close to her guests.

The lack of masks in the US is almost as much a travesty as the lack of tests. 2 deadly gaps, ultimately stemming from the same republican heartless arrogance -- and failure of even minimally adequate governance. Greedy SOBs spending all their time and all our money looking out only for themselves and their donors, that's our political system.

If anyone reading this knows of anyone hoarding masks, please consider asking them to at least keep tabs on whether their local hospitals are running out of them, and consider donating, because it.will.save.lives.

[riversedge]

1. ". A whole lot of 20-29yos out there who feel just fine but are v contagious." Italy vs SK,

Here’s something that’s absolutely terrifying: a comparison of the age distributions of Covid-19 cases in Italy, where they are only testing people who show symptoms, and S. Korea, which has broad testing. A whole lot of 20-29yos out there who feel just fine but are v contagious.

Link to tweet

?s=20

[JudyM]

3. That's sobering data and an interesting pattern.

One possible interpretation could suggest that the twenty-somethings are the primary demographic cause of the spread, running around feeling invincible. The youngest cohorts are being kept close to home by their parents.

[DENVERPOPS]

11. A bunch of

"Typhoid Marys" running around in the population??????

[bearsfootball516]

26. As a healthy 27 year old, that's what scares me.

I’m an auto service advisor who spends his work day interacting with the general public. It’s very possible I could contract COVID-19, become contagious, and never show any symptoms because of my optimal health. But I can pass it on to others without ever knowing I’m a carrier.

[JudyM]

32. Seems that increasing social distance is all you can do besides the hand and cough/sneeze action.

Good for you for trying to not contribute to this awful situation.

[SouthernLiberal]

12. This scares me

Especially since I see all these people, even experts nodding their heads in agreement when someone says only sick people SHOULD be tested. And how ridiculous the idea of testing everyone is.

I even heard someone say that since this is now a pandemic, we can stop doing contact tracing. We can't stop, since we never started. As soon as a community-sourced illness was found, it was "Oh... community sourced, we will never know where they got it" We could have, our president was unwilling to have his infection numbers go up. He does seem to be very willing to have his mortality rate go up.

[littlemissmartypants]

17. Someone needs to share that with #CoronaKatie. nt

[sillaG]

24. south korea testing

So many young people tested positive in Korea because the coronavirus spread in a religious cult that was popular with young people, and then the government proceeded to test every person involved in the cult in the city where the breakout occurred. I think the idea of "asymptomatic people driving the virus" is a little disingenuous, though. Asymptomatic people may drive the virus, but then they get the symptoms. It is not that they never demonstrate symptoms at all. Because the government did test a large group of people who were exposed to the virus, whether demonstrating symptoms or not, they have the information that the vast majority of people with coronavirus do get some symptoms.

The government tests to find out who has the virus, and then that person's contacts are traced. All of the people whom the person has been in contact with have to observe quarantine, and get tested if they have symptoms. We see the statistics in full every day. I can find out all of the details about everyone here who has ever had coronavirus, except their names. But through this, the government seems to have contained the disease, as day by day, the number of new cases has been going down. Today we had well under a hundred new cases. However, if "asymptomatic people were driving the virus" then this system of identifying contacts of people with the disease and testing them or putting them under quarantine would not be successful.

I guess what I want to say is that coronavirus is not sweeping Korea, with many hidden cases carrying it, as the great majority of the confirmed cases can be directly and concretely traced to other cases. The disease most often occurs in clusters, with cults, zumba dancers, churches, call centers and hospital wards affected so far.

[ashredux]

2. No shit!

[Dem2theMax]

4. I may very well have the Coronavirus.

I have been in self-isolation for two weeks, and the doctor put me on official isolation yesterday, when my temperature really went up. But I have had no known contacts with anyone who has traveled outside the country, so they won't test me.

I've been without a car since the beginning of January, and I really didn't think I've been out much. But I pulled out my calendar as I keep close track of when I have to ask someone to take me somewhere. I was shocked to see how many places I have actually been, how many people I have been in physical contact with, yet I have no idea where I could have picked this up.

It just shows me that we truly do not know how easily this virus can be spread. I'm about 90% sure I have it, but without a test I don't know for sure. So I'm just going to stay in my house until every symptom is gone, and then stay in the house a few weeks past that. Thankfully, I have neighbors who will shop for me and who will pick up my mail. No one is allowed in the house!

[DrToast]

5. That's crazy!

Sounds like you’re doing all the right things. Stay safe!

[Dem2theMax]

10. I know. And I am doing everything I can to get through it.

Fingers crossed, I think I turned the corner sometime late last night. My temperature dropped a tiny bit, just enough to make me think I'm headed in the right direction now. And it has held all day. Everyday before this, my temperature has been climbing and climbing.

I've had symptoms for at least two weeks, could have been longer. But maybe I'm coming out of it now. Or it could be the pain meds I took. But whatever it is, I'll take it!

[iluvtennis]

14. It's a failure of the federal gov't that you cna't get a test. Stay in isolation and take care.

[Dem2theMax]

16. I promise I am taking 100% good care of me!

I do believe I turned the corner today. Knock on wood. If I wake up tomorrow morning and my temperature is the same or lower, I'm going in the right direction!

And yes, it is the fault of the federal government that I can't get a test that I should be able to get.

I live around a lot of really elderly people. As if we should need a qualifier for a test, that alone should qualify me for the test. I do not want to be a danger to my friends and neighbors.

Thankfully, unlike the idiot in charge, I am a responsible person. I will do everything I can to make sure that whatever I have, no one gets it from me.

You take care and you stay safe as well.

[JudyM]

21. Let us know how you're doing, Dem2theMax.

we need a social distance emoji

[iluvtennis]

23. Yes, please keep us all posted Dem2theMax. nt

[Evolve Dammit]

6. This was always the problem with a 14 day incubation. Down-playing this is why 45 totally blew it.

Ignored, denied, blamed and pouted when asked real questions. Cut CDC budget, eliminated pandemic task force, fired anyone who wasn't "loyal" to his Orange asshole. He should be impeached again for blatant incompetence and putting all citizens in harms way. This is in no way acceptable.

[JudyM]

22. Willful and wanton. Completely out of the norm of appropriate leadership on this.

[Igel]

7. It's a hard truth for many.

It means by the time we knew to stop people other than those showing any symptoms hundreds of people had probably already introduced it into the US. Most of those we could trace--but everybody exposed to them on the plane, Ubers, buses, in offices and supermarkets and churches, etc., etc. ... no way.

By the time we knew for sure that those without symptoms could spread it, it was too late to do anything but forcibly test everybody or round up and quarantine at gunpoint those who refused testing.

However, by saying "nobody could have stopped it without horrendous, totalitarian methods when it wasn't clear they were required" I'm precluding saying, "Trump could have stopped it by doing some simple, common-sense things." Most things I've heard people say he should have done I thought were unwarranted given popular opinion or completely useless given likely knowledge.

It's rather like calling somebody an idiot for arranging the deck chairs as the ship sinks instead of doing what the smart people do--make sure all the pictures on the wall are hung straight.

The best that we could do, many have been saying for well over a month, is to flatten the curve. If it's endemic in the US, you'll be exposed to it now or later; if it's spread out, fewer die, and it's really that delta that we're talking about. Containment failed before we knew there was a problem. Mitigation has been what many have said is needed for a while. Extreme measures for mitigation are probably pointless but might be worth trying. Problem is, that'll certainly lead to a deep recession; recessions also kill through medical care, risk taking, and despair, but this gets back to the trolley problem--is it better to let more people die one way than to be responsible in some sense for a smaller number's dying?

[yaesu]

8. was it like 2 weeks ago when we learned that about 15% of those infected will have zero symptoms?

so, yeah, they are definitely going to be one big reason this storm will be hard to control.

[JudyM]

13. And now they have an unexpected break from school, first thing they'd want to do is gather.

POTUS and governors and other leaders should be strenuously urging them, and all of us, to be socially responsible and stay home to spare others’ lives.

This is a case study in what not to do in an impending health crisis.

[DFW]

9. It wouldn't surprise me to hear that 75% or more of us here have come in contact and are carriers

Europe is SO small, so densely populated and so mobile, I can't imagine only a few per cent of us really have the virus. I'm sure tens or hundreds of millions have come in passive contact with it--just never developed symptoms. I was apprehensive about my wife visiting with her 92 year old mother this weekend, but aside from the fact that I could not have dissuaded her, her mom has survived kidney failure twice and cancer twice. Her comment would have been, "so what? I'm 92, and Mother Nature has been tossing evil stuff my way for decades now. She's bound to get lucky sooner or later."

[Laelth]

28. 156,400 confirmed cases, worldwide, at this time.

According to Johns Hopkins.

2,952 in the U.S. It is likely that 10 times that number of people have actually been infected at this point. Most of them have been transmitting this highly-contagious disease prior to showing any symptoms.

I seriously worry about the young people who think that they are invulnerable. This is why:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213100840

-Laelth

[DFW]

29. A 31 year old co-worker of my daughter has tested positive

He is now in a coma and they are fighting to save him. He is that one out of five who showed severe symptoms despite his age.

I was supposed to go down to Paris Thursday. That may be off. From the sound of it, I was lucky to be able to leave Madrid this morning.

**On edit--I just looked at the Düsseldorf airport website. Flights from Spain, France and even Italy are landing. It's hard to know whom to believe at this point.

[Laelth]

30. Precisely.

That is the result of a Cytokine Storm.

Thank you for paying some attention to what I had to say in my CYTOKINE STORM thread. Feel free to share and spread.

-Laelth

[SergeStorms]

15. I had about 200 N95 masks....

left over from other viral outbreaks (my mother was highly susceptible to respiratory illness, but has since passed on) but after distributing them to family members and close friends I'm down to just 10 for myself. I don't re-use them, so that gives me 10 trips to the grocery/pharmacy. Who knows how long this will last? I'll probably run out myself.

Usually they're inexpensive, but morons have been charging an arm and a leg for them lately.

[McCamy Taylor]

18. I work in health care and we have been told our employer cannot afford

to supply us with masks.

[Withywindle]

19. Stuff like this makes me think acting out of fear of catching it is the wrong way of thinking

We should be acting as if we already have it (which statistically a lot of us on here already must), and doing as much self-isolation as possible is the right thing to do to protect others.

[Historic NY]

20. Typhoid Mary felt fine too

testing will route them out/

[denem]

25. "The lack of masks in the US is almost as much a travesty as the lack of tests"

Almost all the masks are made in Germany and China. China prohibited export of masks in early January.

[dewsgirl]

27. Yes, I have been saying this for almost two months now.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

31. The lunatics are running the asylum