U.S. markets wrap up worst week since the 2008 financial crisis
Source: Washington Post
U.S. markets finished one of their all-time messy weeks Friday, tumbling more than 10 percent from where they began Monday to wrap up their worst weekly finish since the 2008 financial crisis. Stocks were wrenched all week in hourly spasms as investors try to fathom where the coronavirus will eventually leave the U.S. economy.
The craziness ran right up to Fridays closing bell, as the Standard & Poors 500 index and Dow Jones industrial average plunged more than 3 percent minutes after the World Health Organization warned that world health systems were collapsing under the coronavirus. The Dow closed shed than 925 points, more than 4.6 percent, to close a 19,160 -- erasing all Trump-era gains. The S&P closed down 4.4 percent. The Nasdaq f fell around 3.8 percent..
Investors remain in the same fog they have inhabited since markets began their swift drop in February and the S&P 500 and Dow had reached all-time highs. All three indexes are now in a bear market decline of at least 20 percent from their top.
We had years of low volatility and rising markets, and this virus crisis made it call come to an end at once, said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. There is no endpoint in site, and thats causing a degree of panic because people are saying, I just need to hold some cash. There will be more turmoil, but we flushed out a lot of the people who were leveraged. A lot of good things are happening to restore liquidity and order to markets. Markets lurched all week as a seemingly endless stream of federal government measures were rolled out to douse financial fires in vital corners of the economy.
Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/20/stocks-markets-today-coronavirus/
gibraltar72
(7,500 posts)katusha
(809 posts)the two democratic presidents have had massive economic expansion.
it's just a coincidence i'm sure.
bucolic_frolic
(43,111 posts)Historical context ... Marty Zweig's 1987 crash call on the Friday before ...
BumRushDaShow
(128,702 posts)and most likely saw that segment. And we would especially watch when he had his dad on!
mahatmakanejeeves
(57,359 posts)It came on at 8:30 every Friday night.
Thanks for that.
progree
(10,901 posts)election day 2016 (18,333).
And the S&P 500 at 2305 is above both its election day close (2140) and the last close before inauguration day (2264).
(The Dow at 19,174 and S&P 500 at 2305 is what I'm seeing at both finance.yahoo.com and finance.google.com at 430p ET as today's closing values).
So maybe it won't be until next Tuesday or Wednesday that those points are blown through.
BumRushDaShow
(128,702 posts)/snip
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined 0.4%, to close at 19,732.40. The S&P 500 also decreased 0.4% to close at 2,263.69. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 5,540.08, losing 0.3%. The fear-gauge CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) increased 2.4% to settle at 12.78. A total of around 6.3 billion shares were traded on Thursday, higher than the last 20-session average of 6.1 billion shares. Decliners outpaced advancing stocks on the NYSE. For 72% stocks that declined, 25% advanced.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-january-20-151003025.html
progree
(10,901 posts)and the last close before inaugural day of 19,732.
The MAGAt's often use the election day close as their benchmark under the rationale that Trump's election caused a surge of optimism that a real business tycoon and Republican administration would get rid of "job-killing Obama-era regulations" and "Make America Great Again".
Those values (Dow 19,732.40 and S&P 500 2,263.69) are January 19, 2017 closing values, not January 20 ones, for those who might be wondering -- it say "Stock Market News for January 20, 2017" but they were reporting on the previous day's close.
BumRushDaShow
(128,702 posts)They love to cherry-pick dates but pointing out that from the time he took the oath until now, everything that he supposedly brought to bear, has gone the way of his 6 bankruptcies.
IronLionZion
(45,403 posts)while MAGAts waited until Trump, so many of those idiots bought high and are doing something right now that's going to require a lot of toilet paper
lastlib
(23,191 posts)What is this now, the third one in a row? Or fourth?
Dow down 17% this week, S&P500 down 15%, NASDAQ Composite down 12%. Herbert Hoover is surely relieved that he won't go down in history as the worst economic president ever.
progree
(10,901 posts)obviously deeply into that. I read that a "collapse" is defined as 40% down, so we still have a bit further to go to get to that. (I don't know how widespread that definition of "collapse" is. And I don't know if 30% down has a special name like a "plunge" or something. I'm struggling to come up with a single word that is bad, but not as bad as a "collapse" .
bucolic_frolic
(43,111 posts)progree
(10,901 posts)Last edited Tue May 12, 2020, 06:30 PM - Edit history (8)
But it's interesting to me it's a bit below the low points at the end of 2018 (I remember the last 2 months or so of 2018 as being icky, and IIRC the S&P 500 was a little bit negative for the year overall in 2018)
Then my eye sees that stuff in 2015 and early 2016, and it looks if it gets below about 180 (from its current level of 229), then there's nothing that looks like "support" until the latter half of 2011 at around 118 --
Yahoo SPY all the way back to 2000
S&P 500 all the way back to 1928, logarithmic scale
On the above chart, one has to (a) click on the "[-]" of the "[-][+]" at the bottom center of the chart
(b) To the right of the chart, in the middle on a vertical axis, there is a blue [>] button. Click on that to get rid of the quotes to the right of the chart. That expands the date-range shown on the chart.
If you aren't getting logarithmic, there's a sprocket wheel (settings) just above the chart, 3rd from the far right. Click on that and select logarithmic.
It should show intervals of 1 month. If not, click on "Interval" (just above the chart to the right of the middle), and choose 1 month. That results in showing more date range than the default 1 week.
The interesting thing is how small the collapses (all more than 40%) of 1972-1975, 2000-2001, and 2007-2009, and yes, 2020-present (down 32% so far as of 3/20/20 close) are compared to the general trend of the S&P 500 index which historically has doubled on average about every 9 years (with reinvested dividends it's more like a 7 year doubling time)
Edited to add: I created an Imgur image:
It goes all the way from 1928 to Friday's 3/20/20 close at 2304.92
For those who might not know or remember this trick -- To see the chart blown up (this is very well worth doing) : Right click on the graph and click on "open image in new tab" or "open in new window" or whatever terms your browser has for it. Anyway it makes it so much easier to read.
The important characteristic of the logarithmic y-axis scale to me is that an upward sloping STRAIGHT line represents a constant percentage increase, e.g. something that rises by e.g. 9% per year (or whatever percent a year) is a straight line on a logarithmic graph like this. (Ditto for something declining by a fixed percentage per year -- it will appear as a downward sloping straight line).
A doubling of the index back when it was like 40 is just as important to wealth (it doubles it) as a doubling when it is at 1000. On a linear scale, the movement of the market in the early years is just about impossible to see because it's all just a slightly wiggling line crawling around the horizontal axis. Whereas on a logarithmic scale, a doubling is the same vertical distance whether its a doubling from 40 or from 1000.
It's interesting how insignificant the dot-com bust and the housing bubble bust and the March 2020 32% crash are, compared to the doubling of the index that occurs about every 9 years ON AVERAGE.
Note this is just the index (dividends are ignored). A graph that included reinvested dividends would reach about triple the amount.
(Actually it's a semi-logarithmic graph -- the y-axis is logarithmic while the x-axis is linear.)
bucolic_frolic
(43,111 posts)I'm watching about 2.4 hours of this stuff every night. My guess, and don't believe anything I say, is we'll pause here a day or two because of the stutter step in early 2017 at the same level, then we visit around 200, lots of time spend there in 2014.5 to 2016. But this pandemic is unlike anything the market has ever seen. Nothing is working the way it did.
Thanks for the Yahoo Chart!
progree
(10,901 posts)to my #14 above https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=2452432
I'm so grateful for the weekend (no stock market). I think one thing for sure: next week is going to be a VERY LOOOOOOONG ONE. Ditto for many many weeks after.
bucolic_frolic
(43,111 posts)The era of easy money, low interest rates, pre-QE, Fed interventions for financial rescues - came with Greenspan and Bernanke. While still moving in overall direction, the action is less choppy month by month post 1990. Maybe it's the index funds? Or hedge funds and the money they use? They just kept feeding the market with money, each crisis they injected more. Asian contagion, Russia crisis, Tech and Housing Bubbles, never let it adjust. This crash it as been said by some is the unwinding of all those injections. They suppressed volatility for 3 decades, and now it is loose.
During 2009-2014, deep financial press, and early blogs by gurus who often turned out to be senior investment bankers expressing their own uncredited opinions, kept telling us the QE was creating "distortions" in the economy. They would never explain what that meant. Well .... free money pumps economic activity. Every business plan yields infinite profits when the cost of capital is 0%. So every business was a GO!
Now we face the shakeout of that overcapacity. They must steer between 2 courses - support the economy by printing money, or allowing the liquidation of debt en masse. The first choice destroys the currency, the second destroys the economy.
That is an amazing chart, bookmarked it. Those 2001 and 2007 highs are formidable. Those peaks being so massive I think they will hold. But really so should the 2015 choppiness around 2000 - 1940-2100.
If you're into this kind of stuff, since you find better charts than anyone on here, you might like Youtube - I'm watching ShadowTrader (Fri-Sunday 1 video), ChartGuys, TheoTrade, and MyStrategicForecast. The last three are 5 days a week except the last doesn't do one on Fridays I think.
mahatmakanejeeves
(57,359 posts)DeminPennswoods
(15,273 posts)just like it has driven the market to record highs.
If I were Mnuchin I would ask Wall Street trading/investment firms to halt all automated trading. They can still trade, but they would have to do it the old fashioned way, actually studying stocks before deciding to buy or sell.
BumRushDaShow
(128,702 posts)knowing there are all those microtrades going on too. The breakers were deployed an unprecedented number of times this week.
DeminPennswoods
(15,273 posts)after a short "time out". It just to stop for the near term. But I wonder exactly how many of the traders and investment bankers actually know how to analyze the underlying strength of a company these days and whether or not it's a good investment.
BumRushDaShow
(128,702 posts)sends up flags to those who control the programs that do the trades and thus gives time for "human intervention" to adjust those programs. What generally happens (at least per former coworkers of mine who were active in the market) is that they have their brokers set a low and a high (range) for their stocks/commodities, with instructions for what should happen (buy/sell). So you may have some of those folks who are heavily engaged in watching their stocks, contact their brokers to offer adjustments. Alternately the big funds might also "manually" intervene and request adjustments to the automated buy/sell ranges set for the various funds, and barring the unprecedented circumstances such as what we're experiencing, that often helps.
The analyzing piece requires a much longer period of tracking in order to focus on trends and potential vs day-to-day variations.
DeminPennswoods
(15,273 posts)Today's stock market has little connection to the underlying strengths or companies being publically traded. It's all about maximizing short term profits and stock prices. It leads to short term, rather than long term thinking by businesses. That's how the alogrithms are set up by math whiz kids, not experienced stock analysts.
Personally, I believe the best thing would be to create an entirely seperate market, perhaps one that mirrors the DOW, Nasdaq, etc, that is strictly for betting on stocks but no actual stocks are traded. Then have at algorithms and automated trading as much as you want. "Investors" can still make money, but there will be no impact on companies.
BumRushDaShow
(128,702 posts)whether stocks, bonds (municipals), etc., they do "balance"/"re-balance" the portfolios periodically. The biggest of these are of course the pension funds. One of my cousins worked in the wealth funds.
bucolic_frolic
(43,111 posts)Fed hasn't been injecting capital for nothing. I doubt this is the only bottleneck to liquidity.
ProfessorGAC
(64,951 posts)...842 from Election day 2016. Market closed at 18,332 that day.
So this is overall a 4.5% gain over 40 months. <1.4% annualized. End of 2012, DJIA was 12,966. On that election day, it was 18,332. That's>40% over 46 months, or around 11%. (Between end of 2012 & 2013, it went up >25%, or more than any DOLTUS year.)
This 40 month period under BHO is more than 7x vs. Obama. And the Dow went up by around an average of 12% over Obama's 8 years.
Hey, let's put a failed business guy who's bad at investment in charge!