U.S. coronavirus death projection lowered but official warns of 'second wave'

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Source: Reuters

NEW YORK, April 8 (Reuters) - An influential university model on the U.S. coronavirus pandemic on Wednesday scaled back its projected death toll by 26% to 60,000 but a federal health official warned of a second wave of infections if Americans relax "social distancing" practices.

The downward revision in the death toll in the University of Washington model - often cited by U.S. and state policymakers - coincides with comments by some political leaders that caseloads may have reached a plateau in certain areas.

Those assessments in recent days, including an apparent leveling out in hospitalizations in New York state - the U.S. epicenter of the pandemic - are tempered by a persistent climb in the U.S. death toll, which rose by more than 1,900 on Tuesday as some 30,000 new infections were reported.

New York Mayor Bill De Blasio told a briefing on Wednesday that coronavirus-related hospitalizations in the most populous U.S. city had stabilized and that the need for ventilators was lower than projected.



Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-coronavirus-death-projection-lowered-but-official-warns-of-second-wave/ar-BB12ktBL?li=BBnbcA1

[Squinch]

1. The University of Washington model is ridiculous. Has been ridiculous since it came out.

Continues to be ridiculous.

We will learn, sometime in the months to come, that it was funded by a lot of right wing money.

By that time it will have been used to justify ending isolation, and a new wave of deaths will have begun.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

3. What do you consider better then?

[Squinch]

5. Check out the link in this post:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213155798

On March 20, they almost exactly predicted the number of deaths that occurred as of yesterday.

Their assumptions that led to that amazingly accurate prediction, if you work the math out, would indicate that over 100,000 deaths will result just from the infections that occurred by March 23.

And many infections have occurred since March 23. The rate of increase IS reducing quickly and isolation IS working, but 60,000 is just silly.

[orleans]

15. wow! i just compared

your link to the article said:
"These calculations imply that the American death toll will be 12,800 on April 7th. "
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213155798#post49


i went on cdc that says it was updated april 8th and found:
"Total deaths: 12,754"
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html#2019coronavirus-summary


so what is the model the cdc is using?

[Skittles]

17. the model of trying to please Trump

that's what

[Squinch]

21. Yes. So their assumptions are likely pretty good.

We can keep checking. They also predict the day we hit 20000. I'll be watching to see if that is as accurate.

[BigmanPigman]

27. I like percentages and numbers to be able to compare

and the info at the link is great. The column "1 M pop" now says 33 for the US, last week it was 22. Still low compared to some countries but it is climbing fast.

Those graphs on the link are excellent. I follow each country and state and monitor them every day. I also us these charts at this link and numbers for the states....

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california

[FBaggins]

13. Yet their projections have been fairly consistently on the high side

when compared to reported figures.

[Squinch]

20. How do you figure?

[FBaggins]

25. My math skills extend to comparing two figures over and over

I’ve been watching their projections nationally and for several key states daily for some time now. The reason that their projections have been adjusted downward twice in the last week or so is that the vast majority of daily figures have come in well below their earlier projections.

[obamanut2012]

30. The UW model was lietrally only off by ONE NYS death yesterday

One.

[saidsimplesimon]

2. This is good news. I love NY.

[asiliveandbreathe]

4. My mantra..IT DIDN'T HAVE TO HAPPEN..there is blood on their hands..

The whole tRump mob family and their cult..including the republicon party...I am disgusted - I have trouble even forming a coherent assessment of the world today..

My heart is with our front line workers, EMT's, Nurses, Doctors, Firemen and women, Police, Military personnel, and of course DU, and all the families who support those who have given the most..

Even one death from this disease is too many...I do fear a resurgence should we let down our guard..as it is now, some people have not taken STAY AT HOME seriously enough..

[Initech]

18. And it's going to be the Christian right who will be largely responsible for a resurgence.

There was a church in Sacramento that was reported as being a hot zone of cases because the church refused to comply with social distancing measures.

[Marthe48]

6. Even a handful of deaths is unacceptable

60,000 is horrifying. The other losses, economic, emotional bonds, cultural mores, are horrifying, but the loss of human life is heart-breaking.

[Initech]

16. Yeah the economy can be rebuilt. The lives destroyed cannot.

Plus the ripple effect of all those lost from this is going to be immense.

[Marthe48]

19. Friends have relatives who have been exposed

I have friends and relatives who are nurses or other medical personnel. I try to stay upbeat. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

[Initech]

22. My brother is an ER doctor.

He's treated patients and hooked them up to ventilators and respirators. He's seen members of his own staff get infected. It's real.

And he's been a lot of doom and gloom lately. He says it will get better but we have to be vigilant about it or there's gonna be a second wave like the 1918 flu.

A lot of what he's been talking about is worst case scenario, because that's what they prepare for. But as you said I would rather prepare for the worst and hope that doesn't happen.

[Marthe48]

23. He's on the front line

A daughter of a friend is a nurse and was exposed. She is in self-isolation at home. Another friend has a niece in a nursing home, who tested positive.

I'm in s.e. Ohio and have heard that some people think we might have already had a dose in Dec. Jan. Many severe upper respiratory ailments that were negative for flu. Is it possible? Without testing, who knows?

I'll send a prayer for your brother.

[Initech]

24. I don't know, it's hard to say.

I can bring it up next time I talk to him.

[Stallion]

7. Depends on Who is doing the Counting

widespread reports that maybe 25% of those dying especially at home are not being counted because they never "tested" for Coronavirus-we know Red States will put a thumb on the scale

[usaf-vet]

8. If you don't mind i will wait for the final revised numbers. I think the evidence is clear....

... that not every Covid-19 death is being recorded. Some I'm sure some are due to the overload in the systems at all points. Others might be intentional for obvious political reasons.

My bet would be that the "official" White House numbers will be significantly LOW.

Trump has been lying about the numbers since inauguration day. Then rally crowd size. The poll numbers. And so on, and so on.....

[dhill926]

12. what you said...

[usaf-vet]

31. Update1. This is WHY. We must wait until ALL the numbers are in.

[ffr]

9. FYI, if the person isn't tested to confirm Covid-19, their death isn't reported as Covid-19

even if all indications are that they had Covid-19.

It appears to be tRump's plan, to lower the estimated deaths by this disease by manipulating who is counted and who is not.

And we all know there is a concerted effort to make sure there are not enough tests to go around. We also know that no dead people are being tested, so the numbers being reported are skewed lower.

[docgee]

11. I saw something from a MAGAt poster yesterday saying

that not everyone who has tested positive for covid19 that dies, is actually dying from covid19 vs something else they had. So that's their logic for saying the number of deaths are being over counted.

[SWBTATTReg]

10. IMHO, we'll have multiple waves being that the CV is so contageous. As we can see from the ...

news reports, there are still a lot of people who aren't taking this seriously. They will, before long.

[ananda]

14. Is testing and reporting accurate and sufficient?

I have my doubts.

[Politicub]

26. I don't see how China will avoid a second wave in another city.

It just takes one person to start the exponential growth of a pandemic. It doesn’t make sense.

[Newest Reality]

28. We are going to need...

Last edited Wed Apr 8, 2020, 07:21 PM - Edit history (2)

We are going to need a REAL, professional, trained person to be a National Health Czar when we get the dictator and his family, (nepotism) and loyal sycophants and grifters out, (they are a bad disease in themselves).

There is no telling how many possible waves of COVID-19 there may be yet and there is NO guarantee that there won't be more mutations and inflections coming one after the other. Climate change is causing conditions that encourage this and that includes the rapid melting of the permafrost where any number of deadly pathogens could be waiting to be unleashed, possibly even worse than ebola and COVID-19--much worse!

Since we can put so much of our resources into a war on a word, "terrorism", (which oddly doesn't see to be in vogue right now and I guess it's no problem???) we certainly can create a strong preparatory system that shields us and is ready to respond rapidly, responsibly and in a high-tech, precise way wherever it is needed.

That is going to be absolutely essential for our new, real, Administration. I can't emphasize that enough. This is not a problem that can be ignored and cast aside now, even if COVID-19 wanes.

[BigmanPigman]

29. Yes, every word!

[logme]

32. IHME seems overly optimistic for countries that actively track death outside hospitals

Hi,

I checked IHME projection closely. As they offered us a glimmer of hope, but I noticed diverging accuracy depending on the country their model is applied to.


Note bene :

After some time to adjust Italy & France seems to have put in place a more systematic counting of covid-19 related death, Spain followed with minor issues with numbers from retirement homes.

The UK seems to have some logistical issue at the moment but the government recently pledge to count all tested covid-19 death, not only those in hospitals.

I am not sure how IHME build its model, but you will notice a divergence between most EU countries & the US or the UK.

This is possibly due to issues with the collect of data or the use of different criteria, it is still unclear.


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[Marrah_Goodman]

33. We don't even know the real death numbers

People who die without being tested are not being tested after death and therefore are not counted in the figures.