U.S. now has 22 million unemployed as economy sinks toward Depression-like scenario

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: Washington Post

More than 22 million Americans have filed for unemployment aid since President Trump declared a national emergency four weeks ago, a staggering loss of jobs that has caused families to flood food banks as they await government help. Last week, 5.2 million people filed unemployment insurance claims, the Labor Department reported Thursday, making it one of the biggest spikes ever, although a smaller figure than the 6.6 million people who applied the week before and the record 6.9 million people who applied the week that ended on March 28.

The United States has not seen this level of job loss since the Great Depression, and the government is struggling to respond fast enough to the deadly coronavirus health crisis and the economic crisis triggered by shutting down so many businesses in an effort to slow the spread of the virus. A growing number of economists warn that recovering from the “Great Lockdown” is going to take a long time, and millions of Americans are likely to remain out of a job through the end of the year. Even after parts of the economy reopen, unless there is widespread testing or a vaccine, people are going to remain fearful of venturing out again to restaurants or offices, many experts say.

In addition to health concerns, Americans typically slash their spending when they see widespread job losses and pay cuts among their friends and family members, another issue likely to prevent a rapid recovery. The U.S. unemployment rate is already over 20 percent, according to two professors who are tracking the data in real time. It is expected remain close to 10 percent through the end of the year, meaning 1 in 10 people would still be out of work at the holidays, the National Association for Business Economics says.

“We are going to go through a couple of quarters, at least, where things will be bad,” said Patrick Harker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. “I could see a [jobless] number hovering around or slightly below 20 percent, even.”

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/16/unemployment-claims-coronavirus/

---

Original article and headline -

22 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits in the past four weeks as labor market tumbles closer to Depression levels

By Washington Post Staff
April 16, 2020 at 8:31 a.m. EDT

Economists say the unemployment rate is well into the teens. Unemployment could remain as high as 10 percent through the end of the year, even after the economy reopens.

This is a developing story. It will be updated.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2020/04/16/22-million-americans-have-filed-for-unemployment-benefits-in-the-past-four-weeks-as-labor-market-tumbles-closer-to-depression-levels/

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. From the source:

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

This thing goes on for ten pages. You can find state-by-state data here.

News Release

Connect with DOL at https://blog.dol.gov

TRANSMISSION OF MATERIALS IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL 8:30 A.M. (Eastern) Thursday, April 16, 2020

COVID-19 Impact
The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending April 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 5,245,000, a decrease of 1,370,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 9,000 from 6,606,000 to 6,615,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,508,500, an increase of 1,240,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 2,250 from 4,265,500 to 4,267,750. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 8.2 percent for the week ending April 4, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the previous week's unrevised rate. This marks the highest level of the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous high was 7.0 percent in May of 1975.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 4 was 11,976,000, an increase of 4,530,000 from the previous week's revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous week's level was revised down by 9,000 from 7,455,000 to 7,446,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,066,250, an increase of 2,568,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,250 from 3,500,000 to 3,497,750.

[BumRushDaShow]

2. Thank you much!

[mahatmakanejeeves]

3. De nada. I'd tip my hat, but I'm inside. NT

[BumRushDaShow]

4. Ahh good.

[nitpicker]

5. A Bloomberg host said the 22 million are 14%

Of the workforce of 155 million.

[doc03]

6. Another Obama record Trump has shattered, so much winning nt

[bucolic_frolic]

7. A war economy requires a war response

to prioritize food, energy, healthcare, distribution. This administration can't do with computers what FDR's did with input-output calculations in matrices, on paper. COVID-19 pandemic is a war - an existential disruption of the entire economy and political system.

We have 20% less output. Asian imports are just now resuming, slowly. Lowered consumption is our only hope. Rationing is in our future. 22 million? I doubt the worst is over. COVID-19 fatalities will surprise on the upside. No sports. Few restaurants. Very little travel. Cut the entertainment and non-essentials from the America economy - what have you got?

Trump has no plan except to grab power. His game is known to about 2/3 of the country. We must defeat Trump and only then can we begin the rebuild.

[BumRushDaShow]

8. The sad part of what you wrote

is that Democrats always end up on the "clean-up after the GOP destruction" side, and get blamed for the draconian measures needed "on the back end", to fix the economy for the long term. And then when things are finally back up and running, the GOP gets handed the fixed product thanks to their propaganda machine, all to screw it up again. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

[bucolic_frolic]

12. The party struggles with

being proactive, with strength and unity, and in formulating and deploying its considerable ideology against warlike opponents. It operates as democracy being normal, as parties in power a long time tend to do, and are then flummoxed by fierce opposition.

The last articulation of democratic principles of any note was Mario Cuomo's 1984 convention address.

We've had Democratic presidents, but they faced legislative opposition, and even in the brief periods they had power it wasn't absolute or they had crises or they didn't know what to do with it. Obama was the strongest since JFK, but he knew his place and role (to fix the economy). He had no answer for the Merrick Garland blockade. Biden in my view is one of the few Democrats who can reach back to our golden age as a party. He knows what it means to be a Democrat, to have a democracy. He must articulate that.

[BumRushDaShow]

17. And then there is Mario's oldest son

(like day and night)

[treestar]

19. I think it should be thought of more like that than as a "depression"

because it is artificially induced. Everyone knows it is because of the lockdown. It's not that people can't pay so much as they can't pay during the lockdown.

People who are retired are high in number and still have the same income they had. People who had high income can still survive. People in essential occupations still work.

So all we have to do is temporarily help those who lost a low income job that was just keeping them up.

It's the Dotard who can turn it into a real depression by not using the powers he has (while claiming to have powers he doesn't).

[DeminPennswoods]

36. During The Depression,

there was no social security, no pensions, no unemployment pay, and nothing to fall back on.

The banks failed, there was no FDIC to protect savings; people lost everything.

There were few jobs to be had. That is not so today. People are still working, albeit from home, and there is at least some income safety net. Some businesses are, in fact, hiring so there is work to be had.

[machoneman]

24. Defeat him? He's doing the job all by himself. Actual election losses in red states since 2016......

are piling up, including our massive wins in WI this week. I do believe he's already fallen on his sword (if it were only a real sword!) by virtue of his stupid, ill-informed and regular lies to the American public. Even his calls of yesterday (4/15/20) to CEO's went badly as they almost to a man told him no dice until they and their workers felt safe and only after consulting with true health experts, not a failed casino operator.

We've also seen this week many a governor, mostly in blue states, throw up their hands on Trump's mishandling of just about every aspect of this pandemic and instead form strong state-to-state alliances to get what they need and fight back against Trump's tyranny. Watch for more states to band together in a similar fashion as Trump give them nothing in return, no protective gear, ventilators nor other health-related assistance except b.s., every single day.

[gab13by13]

9. 10% through the rest of the year is a pipe dream.

I am no economist, probably the last person to ask, but I listen to economists and some are predicting depression-like numbers. I hope that is a worst case scenario and not a consensus.

I know that Janet Yellen said we are into the teens, she said that last week.

[UpInArms]

10. Jobless claims soar by 5.25 million to push coronavirus-tied layoffs above 20 million

The numbers: Some 5.25 million workers who’ve lost their jobs applied for unemployment benefits last week, driving the number of coronavirus-related layoffs above 21 million in just one month as the nation grapples with the worst pandemic in a century.

The staggering increase in unemployment has likely pushed the jobless rate up to around 15%, the highest level since the Great Depression in the 1930s, economists say. The rate would be even higher if an unknowable number of Americans still being kept on payroll but not working were included



The rate of job losses finally appears to be slowing, but many more layoffs and furloughs are expected through the end of the month and probably into early May.

How soon most of the newly jobless Americans get back to work will depend on how quickly the economy reopens. President Trump on Thursday plans to announce federal guidelines on how states can begin to ease restrictions, though many governors say they are not ready to do so with the number of COVID-19 cases still rising.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-soar-again-by-525-million-as-coronavirus-pushes-unemployment-to-15-2020-04-16?mod=mw_latestnews

[Nay]

15. From the Marketwatch article:

"How soon most of the newly jobless Americans get back to work will depend on how quickly the economy reopens."

This seems untrue to me. Allowing businesses to reopen DOES NOT mean that all the customers are going to be running back to the way things were -- older folks who have money to spend aren't going to be going to crowded restaurants, theatres, etc., because they don't want to get sick! Lots of people aren't going to be going out much for quite a while, frankly. And because many people have been financially strained by this pandemic, they also don't have money to waste.

Companies are going to be very stingy with hiring/rehiring. They've lost money, too, and aren't eager to overhire. Plus lots of smaller businesses will be destroyed and will never come back.

The only thing that will 'reopen the economy' is the vaccination of the population.

[UpInArms]

18. Agreed

Whoever writes this crap doesn’t grasp reality very well.

I am not going back out until testing sites are everywhere and there is some type of control over the spread.

[Corgigal]

37. Even,

if we had some random testing, and science gave us a good per capita estimate. We then could make decisions on the threat on doing what we need, or want to do.

This country can’t even do that.

[gab13by13]

21. I'm not going back to crowded restaurants either,

it's too hard to eat with a mask on.

[machoneman]

27. One more thought: If I as a manufacturer make just about anything.......

..I get parts, supplies, components, etc. from a number of far-flung US states and even overseas suppliers. If any single aspect of that supply chain includes shuttered factories, slow transport, etc. I can't get all the goods needed on my bill-of-materials to even start making my finished product. And I not even talking about labor shortages due to fear in the worker's minds.

The other component is demand. That paltry $1,200 payout will be gone in days. Now, who is going to go out in public (or order on-line) and spend $ on anything but food, gasoline, T.P. and sanitizers? Do I really want to or can afford to buy luxury items from Bed, Bath and Beyond? Target, Macy's, women's clothing shops, men's shoes, kid's toys?

Demand for so, so many items is non-existant and will get worse as this pandemic drags on. Home sales, car sales, home improvement projects, new furnitrue ideas and the like have crashed and will stay that way for some time.

Sorry, but we must have a realistic idea of the near future and how this terrible virus has changed and will continue to change how we live, work, worhsip and more. We'll get out of this but only if we ignore the tin-pot dictator in the White House and listen to real experts.

[keithbvadu2]

11. MAGAts, don't be afraid to brag 'the Trump economy'.

[Bengus81]

13. This just makes it worse for that jackass to try and force States to re-open

If he can't do it by law then it will be threats and intimidation. This fuck has crowned himself King.

[Miguelito Loveless]

14. "Depression like"???

This will be far worse by the time Trump is done.

[Nay]

16. Oh, I agree. Whole sections of the population have been (correctly) traumatized by

the idea of dying of this stuff, and they won't be going to the movies until there's a good vaccine.

[gab13by13]

25. Why bother giving money to cruise line industry?

None are flagged in America so none pay taxes and who in his or her right mind is going to book a cruise? I mean the Navy is having serious issues.

[keithbvadu2]

22. Pay attention to Trump when he says the economy is going down the drain if he is not reelected.

Pay attention to Trump when he says the economy is going down the drain if he is not reelected.

He is telling us what shape he will leave the country in.

Despite his excuses, Trump gets full credit for any bad in the economy just as he takes full credit for any good in the economy.

[gab13by13]

26. He owns the economy until January.

Look for him to push for trillions more in bailouts from the Fed and Central banks. He is trying to prop up the stock market and pouring money into it will work somewhat, but someone should explain to Trump that 73% of our GDP comes from consumer spending.

I just wish that someone would correct him at his virus rallies about China paying us billions of dollars because of trump's tariffs. China pays us nothing. Corporations pay for the added cost and then pass off the higher prices to us consumers. I screamed when Trump said yesterday that his China tariffs paid for farmer bailouts.

The networks need to stop covering these virus rallies.

[SamKnause]

20. 3 of my family members were laid off this week.

1) Registered Nurse at Christ Hospital 20+ years (Cincinnati, Ohio). Never been laid off.

2) Medical Transcription 25+ years (works from home). Never been laid off.

3) I don't know where this person works (changes jobs frequently do to medical issues).

[mahatmakanejeeves]

23. Future bleak for long-term jobless

I'm clearing out old papers. That's the print title for this article:

Economic Policy

Five reasons why the long-term jobless don’t matter to the economy

By Ylan Q. Mui
Reporter
March 20, 2014 at 1:00 p.m. EDT

Princeton University professor Alan Krueger dives deep into the problem of long-term unemployment in a new paper to be presented Thursday at the Brookings Institution. He calls people who have been out of a job for six months or more an “unlucky subset of the unemployed” who exist on the margins of the economy -- with faint hope of returning to productivity. Here are five takeaways from his paper, co-authored with Judd Cramer and David Cho of Princeton.

{snip}

Ylan Mui
Ylan Q. Mui was a financial reporter at The Washington Post covering the Federal Reserve and the economy. She left The Post in January 2017. Follow https://twitter.com/ylanmui

[roamer65]

28. 1920-1921 depression.

A redux 100 years later. The flu pandemic was partly responsible for that one.

[Dopers_Greed]

29. Yet somehow the stock market is doing great

Chump will be bragging to end about it

[BumRushDaShow]

30. The stock market is "on paper" value

It will probably be a lagging indicator for some time (is already in bear market territory)... We just ended the 1st (calendar) quarter at the end of March. Something to keep in mind.

[Bengus81]

31. It's still down 6000 points from 60 days ago.........

Let him brag about that all day

[beachbumbob]

32. many more are unemployed and not filed claims as their states systems are overwhelmed, easily

a few hundred thousand more, easily

[Bayard]

33. Low unemployment and the stock market

These were the two main things tRump kept crowing about. They're both in the toilet. The main reason he's pushing so hard to re-open businesses. He could care less about how many get sick/die. Its about HIM.

I don't see where he has a snowball's chance in hell of being re-elected. No matter what my brother says.

[Skittles]

35. well, Trump still has Putin

https://www.post-gazette.com/news/world/2020/04/16/Russia-accept-Trump-s-offer-of-ventilators-coronavirus-pandemic/stories/202004160115

[nilesobek]

34. Catastrophe.

My low paying irrigation and maintenance job is Gonzo. It's all we had as a family to get by. Obama had carefully and expertly nurtured the recovery over 8 years so I could have a job.

Destroyed in only 40 days. Desperate people are now committing robberies up the street and in this area, that's pretty rare.

Wreckers, all of them. #43 and #45.

I'm ready to install my old robot head from Tralfamadore. It has malicious programming.

[Baclava]

38. So, can we call this 'Trump's Great Depression' now?

[NYC Liberal]

39. The government isn't "struggling to respond".

That makes it seem like Trump & Co are trying hard and doing their best, but failing.

Not only are they not trying, they are actively and deliberately taking actions that sabotage any effective response.