Hundreds of thousands in L.A. County may have been infected with coronavirus, study finds

[Zorro]

Source: LA Times

Hundreds of thousands of Los Angeles County residents may have been infected with the coronavirus by early April, far outpacing the number of officially confirmed cases, according to a report released Monday.

The initial results from the first large-scale study tracking the spread of the coronavirus in the county found that 2.8% to 5.6% of adults have antibodies to the virus in their blood, an indication of past exposure.

That translates to roughly 221,000 to 442,000 adults who have recovered from an infection, according to the researchers conducting the study, even though the county had reported fewer than 8,000 cases at that time.

“We haven’t known the true extent of COVID-19 infections in our community because we have only tested people with symptoms, and the availability of tests has been limited,” study leader Neeraj Sood, a professor at USC‘s Price School for Public Policy, said in a statement. “The estimates also suggest that we might have to re-calibrate disease prediction models and rethink public health strategies.”

Read more: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county

[Sienna86]

1. Fascinating. Thanks.

The research is so interesting.

[pnwmom]

2. Too bad we can't trust the accuracy of antibody test results, according to

stories published recently in the NYT and the WA Post.

One of the tests available only had a 20% accuracy rate.

[paleotn]

3. Without actual testing....

their estimates aren't worth much. Their study doesn't jive with the reality we're seeing in Italy, Spain and China. It also doesn't hold up to real numbers in Germany, where actual testing has been far more extensive than virtually anywhere else. In short, I ain't buying it because it doesn't match reality on the ground.

[BigmanPigman]

4. This is so frustrating...not knowing about this disease.

Tests that don't work, and possible "immunity" is pure speculation at this point. Meanwhile WHO says the worst is yet to come and during the 1918 flu various cities used different methods to fight the flu and had different results but they all STILL has 2 and 3 peaks before it was over.

[riversedge]

8. a good analogy: it is not just Mt Hood [highest peak] but the whole mountain range...several

high bumps that are likely after reaching the top of Mt. Hood. --then the foothills. before we can think of this horrible thing being over.

But then it could hit us next fall again.

[BigmanPigman]

10. Three waves in a little over a year....

First wave: "When the Spanish flu first appeared in early March 1918, it had all the hallmarks of a seasonal flu...(in Kansas at Army Base Camp Funston). As U.S. troops deployed en masse for the war effort in Europe, they carried the Spanish flu with them.

"Throughout April and May of 1918, the virus spread like wildfire through England, France, Spain and Italy.

Second wave: "While the global pandemic lasted for two years, the vast majority of deaths were packed into three especially cruel months in the fall of 1918. Historians now believe that the fatal severity of the Spanish flu’s “second wave” was caused by a mutated virus spread by wartime troop movements.

Third wave: San Francisco and St Louis were hit particularly hard by the third wave of the Spanish flu which returned in the late winter and spring of 1919."

https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence

[riversedge]

12. I read that the #coronavirus may be muting right now.

[MosheFeingold]

5. This is good news

It potentially means the virus is not as deadly as predicted.

There was another study of Cook County prisoners. Roughly half had it and little illness.

[bucolic_frolic]

6. I'm not a big fan of this theory, but if true it does suggest there are significant co-factor(s)

that no one has put their hands on yet. Why prisoners test positive but aren't converting to COVID-19? We did hear early on prisons would be decimated. Something in their diet? inactivity? Something missing in their diet that the general population ingests regularly? Less electro-magnetic radiation?

[MosheFeingold]

7. Or

They are not old and out of shape and sick.

[Marrah_Goodman]

13. There are different strains of the virus on the different coasts

Once the deadlier east coast version moves across the country, I wonder if the west coast will see a deadlier second round of infections.

[MosheFeingold]

14. More likely

The west coast one will offer protection and spread faster.

The less deadly and less symptoms a disease has, the quicker and farther it spreads. Think about it from an evolutionary standpoint of the virus.

Would it help you or hurt you (as a virus) to make your host sick and die? Nope. You want the host feeling great and going for beers so you can have baby viruses.

I’m almost if the mind to unquarantine the people in LA and pay them to fly around the country.

[NickB79]

15. Not as lethal, but a whole lot more contagious

It means the R-0 (R-naught) is far higher than first believed. That's the only way to jibe a lower lethality with the surge in deaths we're seeing.

And a disease with a low lethality but high transmission rate can still cause massive loss of life. It's just a quantity vs quality equation. A smaller percentage die, but the number of infected gets larger.

[kimbutgar]

9. On March13th we were in Anaheim at Disneyland we left the park and went to a supermarket

About 2 miles away from the park. We wanted to get sparkling water for our drive home the next day to the Bay Area. We went to three stores, the lines were wrapped around the store in smart and final, an Asian market and Hispanic. It was so crowded. We went in and out pretty quickly. I think about if CV was there it was transmitted in those stores. We gave up and ended up getting the water at a liquor store. I think back on that night. Before social distancing how many germs were there we were exposed to!

[Initech]

11. I was in Vegas on the strip that week.

How I managed to escape that, without getting the virus, that is insane. But at the same time I've never, not once had a history of flu or any respiratory problems. I definitely did my time in quarantine after I got home, but I'm still amazed I got out of there the way I did.