Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

[budkin]

Source: CNN

The economy has gone from President Donald Trump's greatest political asset to perhaps his biggest weakness.

Unemployment is spiking at an unprecedented rate. Consumer spending is vanishing. And GDP is collapsing. History shows that dreadful economic trends like these spell doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection.
The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in November, a national election model released Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/business/economy-election-trump-biden-jobs/index.html

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Obviously there's so much work to do, but this headline is nice to see.

[muntrv]

1. GOTV, my friends.

[Doreen]

2. Yeah, but if any outsiders like the last election get in

it will not matter.

[oldsoftie]

3. Thats how he needs to lose; BIG.

Then they cant blame illegals, double voting, "dead" voters, etc.

[ArizonaLib]

7. large voting turnouts are always good for democracy

makes it all the more difficult for election stealing or for less popular candidates with unpopular platforms to get elected.

[bucolic_frolic]

4. Trump incompetence on COVID caused the economy collapse

That's a harder nut for Trump to crack

[Doodley]

5. Get ready for the nastiest smear campaign (against Joe Biden) in American history.

[paleotn]

8. Yep, and the Dems will get just as nasty.

Joe is a street fighter. He'll give at the very least as good as he gets. And we have Bloomberg ad buys to drive it home.

[MFM008]

16. And Obama

And Hillary will have his back
And crawl right into maggots brain.....

[paleotn]

18. Yep. And they know just how to push his buttons....

as I like to think....get inside his head and go to work with a sawsall and a blow torch.

[regnaD kciN]

35. Sorry, but NO ONE can be as nasty as Trump...

However "down and dirty" Democrats supposedly are, they still feel the need to do so in a "civilized" manner. Trump has no such compunctions. Would any other politician have dared to mock Gold Star parents, or mimic a disabled reporter? I'm not going to recite the "they go low, we go high" mantra, because I don't think that plays with a lot of voters, but I'm reminded of the old adage about going negative: "Never get in a wrestling match with a pig. You'll both get covered in sh*t, and the pig enjoys it."

[paleotn]

6. Vote by mail....

means he loses Michigan no matter what. Even if he takes PA, OH and WI he loses.

[FakeNoose]

37. My prediction: Biden will win Pennsylvania and Ohio

... not sure about Wisconsin yet. I want to believe that the midwestern rustbelt states are ALL going for Biden this time, but it may be wishful thinking. Many undecided independent voters broke for Chump at the last minute in 2016. Those last minute indies are so-o-o regretful now. It will not happen again.

[Zambero]

38. The recent Wisconsin Supreme Court election result gives me hope

Despite the legislature using every voter suppression tactic they could muster during a pandemic, a right-wing incumbent was shown the door, as was Walker a couple years earlier.

[FakeNoose]

39. Love this!

[FormerWIRepub]

41. Take it for what it's worth

but I live in a GOP stronghold of Wisconsin (St. Croix County) and I can tell you that while I am sure Trump still wins this area handily, I don't think it'll be nearly by the margin he did in 2016. (55%-37%) I know A LOT of former Trump voters that will be voting for Biden this time around.

If that is at all indicative of what will happen statewide, Biden is going to win WI.

Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote.

[Paladin]

9. This sure as hell isn't the time to get overconfident. (nt)

[olddad65]

10. Once you apply the 'russian interference factor.

He will surprise everyone and win the swing states for another shocking victory. If we actually have the election. No way is Putin letting go of his favorite new territory.

[totodeinhere]

13. I would tend to agree with you. I remember predictions plastered all over DU four years ago

that Clinton would win by a landslide. And people were already congratulating each other and popping champagne corks. But then we know how that turned out. I still think that we will wake up to a nightmare on the morning of November 4th. And with high probability that this pandemic will still be around then Trump, Moscow Mitch and the Russians will use it as the perfect cover to steal the election lock stock and barrel.

[sellitman]

11. Hillary had it in the bag too

Until she didn't.


No prevent defense please.

Pound his sorry butt into the ground. Don't let up

[oldsoftie]

12. Exactly. 80k non-voters gave it to trump. Dont let him get CLOSE. nt

[olddad65]

21. The Russians gave it to Trump.

[oldsoftie]

26. The russians didnt cast any votes. And neither did a lot of democrats.

If Dem turnout would've been what it was in '12, trump loses Wi, Pa & Mi badly.
I'm tired of blaming the russians when too many of our own decided not to vote or vote for stein. And already some Sanders voters are talking about sitting out this one.

[sellitman]

36. Yes they did.

Yesterday I had over 40 Russian bots reply to a post of mine. I'm still in the process of reporting and blocking them.

They are out there.

[paleotn]

19. +100,000 this.

[sakabatou]

14. We shouldn't get complacent.

[Initech]

15. The economy was great. Then coronavirus took a colossal dump on it.

And exposed it for what it really is. Now Trump can't run on that, and we all suffer because of it.

[colsohlibgal]

17. Hope So

And if so.....time to dive into his likely filthy dirty tax returns, his interactions with creditors, all the illegal dirty things he has been involved in. He is a modern day gangster, only a stupid one who apparently wears a girdle and an adult diaper. And in the words of Nancy Pelosi is morbidly obese.

Should be a real hit in Prison.

Never thought we would see a Republican Prez more creepy and criminal than Tricky Dick but this guy makes Nixon look good....and of course Nixon likely tripled Twitler’s IQ.

[olddad65]

24. Trump isn't a president, he is a fascist dictator.

Who was installed by our enemy to bring down the USA. And guess what, it is working very well. We are no longer a democracy, and the states are no longer united. They are divided blue, democratic states and red fascist states that are being propped up by the fascist Trump organization. It is gonna get a whole lot worse before it gets better.

[maddiemom]

30. The 2020 election will be a bloody(hope not physical) disaster.

It's on the Republicans' head, and, considering the impeachment debacle, and the selfish, intractable Mitch McConnell, there's sadly little hope that the Repugs will ever be "the loyal opposition" (remember before Gingrich) No matter the results, Trump will never accept defeat. He was prepared to raise hell in 2016 if he lost, as he expected. Hillary, as POTUS, would have faced resistance far worse than Obama did. The only solution in 2020 is a Democratic Senate, along with keeping the House, if a Dem defeats Trump. The system we lived with for a couple of centuries is falling apart in the 21st century.

[live love laugh]

20. Republicans haven't actually won a presidential election since Bush Sr. Nothing new.

What’s lacking is the strategy that overcomes the subversion of the peoples’ will.

[Foolacious]

22. I read the source story, and it says:

"we have no earthly idea...."

So get out the vote!!!!!!!!!!!

[olddad65]

25. Yeah, your vote no longer matters, but get out in vote.

[Foolacious]

42. Concern noted N/T

[liberal N proud]

23. I don't trust trump from meddling

We cannot rest, we must do everything we can to bring him down

[kimbutgar]

27. I will not believe it until Fox cable news announces it.

In 2008 when President Obama won we also didn’t believe it until we heard it on Fox.

When the liars acknowledge the truth there is no denying it any longer for them.

I c a n’ t w a i t !

[SeattleVet]

28. He needs to have the biggest, greatest, hugest loss in American electoral history.

He needs to lose the popular vote by more than Landon vs. Roosevelt in 1936 (Roosevelt took 60.8% of the popular vote, while Landon won 36.5%), and a bigger electoral win than that bastard Reagan in 1984 (the asshole took 49 states). Nothing will make the majority of Americans happy than seeing him royally spanked and relegated to the dustbin of history.

[Stuart G]

31. Trump doesn't have a clue as to what is coming in November..

Last edited Thu May 21, 2020, 10:21 AM - Edit history (1)

Trump doesn't have a clue.
Says Mr. Stu..
The clown will go down,
And he will frown...

[Skittles]

32. he will lose because of his "response" to coroavirus

stupid fucker

[Steelrolled]

33. I will not believe (or even read) stories like this.

Speculation, wishful thinking, etc. I'll wait until the day after the election.

[regnaD kciN]

34. The same model was predicting that he would WIN in a landslide pre-COVID-19...

...when all the polls were showing him trailing, albeit by a narrow margin.

Putting it bluntly, I don't trust this model. Trump "hits different buttons," both positive and negative, than prior presidents, and so history that's based on a long run of "the usual kind of presidents" is a poor basis for predictions this time around.

Now, I happen to think that Trump was probably going to lose anyway, and the probability has gone way up due to disgust with his handling of the pandemic. But basing it on economic results alone is tricky, because we don't have a clue where the economy is going to be come November. The DJIA started the year in the 29,000s, then dropped to around 18,000 at the height of the panic. Now, it's in the 24,000-25,000 range. Say that, come Election Day, it's somewhere between 26,000 and 27,000. Do voters blame Trump because it's lower than at the start of the year? Or do they say "well, that's mostly due to the 'Chinese virus', which no president would have had any control over, we've seen a YUGE comeback since then, and things are on their way back to normal and even higher"...? No one knows.

And, of course, in the end, models don't vote, people do.

[area51]

40. Hopefully.