Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll

[kansasobama]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by applegrove (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: Investor's Business Daily

Today's Trump vs. Biden poll finds that the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden has suddenly gotten much tighter. IBD/TIPP's latest 2020 presidential poll update shows that Republicans are rallying around Trump, Biden is leaking Democratic support, and the gap among independents has narrowed.

The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll update shows the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 2.3 points, 48.1%-45.8%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 3%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.9%.

Read more: https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-tightens-like-2016-ibd-tipp-2020-presidential-poll/

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I am getting confused and worried. How can Biden leak Democratic support? I am disgusted

[Squinch]

1. mmmkay.

[Jamesyu]

2. Its a BS poll

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. Don't worry about it.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214321497

[PatSeg]

31. Thanks

We really don't need to be freaking out right now. I find this particular poll to be highly unlikely.

[dchill]

4. Look at some other polls.

[rocktivity]

32. Other polls such as real Clear Politics LOL

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/national_general_election/


rocktivity

[Cirque du So-What]

5. ...

[Rule of Claw]

6. Polls don't move 8 points in seven days.

They just don't. For that to happen there would need to be a huge scandal.

This poll with a conservative turnout model is still 53-46. Joe.

This poll started at 8, went to five, back up to over six, then overnight shifted four points. Tomorrow Joe might be up 8 again. that isn't a race shift issue, that is a poll issue.

[kansasobama]

12. Are Trump lies about Biden doing this?

That was the only "fake" scandal. You have to realize there are many stupid voters.

[cstanleytech]

28. Depends really on how its conducted. An honest poll for a nationwide election will sample

a large group across the nation to get an accurate number where as a dishonest one will try to do the poll in such a manner as to screw the numbers such as only polling people in a specific area where they know a specific political party is strongest.

[DownriverDem]

43. National polls

don't matter. It's state by state. BTW a good poll should have at least 1000 folks to be creditable.

[TwilightZone]

7. Looks like the outlier to end all outliers.

Until more valid polls show this kind of swing, I'd ignore it.

[JCMach1]

8. Rubbish...

[CaptainTruth]

9. Sorry, no. Need to see a trend.

[PubliusEnigma]

10. Sorry, your game won't work this time. Biden 2020!

[certainot]

11. polls like this (and diaries on those polls) will pop up every day now to feed 1500 radio stations

and and fox and help trump convince the dittoheads/trumpers/teabags that democrats would have to have stolen it

[lagomorph777]

13. Welcome to DU. Your concern is noted.

[Karma13612]

15. 👍👏 nt

[PatSeg]

33. Poster has been here for eight years

Not everyone has a high post count. That said, I do think the concern is a bit over the top, but I suppose a lot of people are really nervous.

[marble falls]

69. Exactly. Noted and eye-rolled. This all is just the "reality show"-ifiction of the election.

[Karma13612]

14. Wasn't there another poll recently that

ALSO reported, via a financial focused news source, that showed the race tightening?

Financial news sources would favor Trump if I’m not mistaken.

I am pretending the race is close, but am not losing hope.
Biden is very popular, and I think the debate Thursday is going to help him as long as tRump doesn’t become something he isn’t capable of being: Sane.

[FBaggins]

26. Likely the same poll

They're reporting daily and have shown narrowing each of the last 2-3 days.

Financial news sources would favor Trump if I’m not mistaken.

That's tough to say. IBD/TIPP has been out of step with most national polling for much of the cycle. OTOH, that's what happened in 2016 as well and they ended up looking pretty good.

[Karma13612]

41. Hmmm, good to know.

I guess the polls are going to tighten anyway?

Just hope Biden stays ahead. Like a majority of us, I can’t handle another 4 years of tRump.

[Tommymac]

34. Goldman Sachs favors a Blue Sweep.

They say a Biden tax increase will be more then offset by Federal COVID Stimulas $$$$$$$$$$ in a Government controlled by the Democratic Party.

They are against Socialism until they are for it.

[Karma13612]

40. Interesting!! Nt

[PoliticAverse]

58. Goldman Sachs supports whoever will make the most money for Goldman Sachs. n/t

[shotten99]

16. Likely an outlier

If there were several polls showing these results, it would likely be accurate. As such, this isn't a concern until all polls consistently follow suit.

[ancianita]

17. No, he's not leaking. It's the poll sample.

[BlueIdaho]

18. Not this shit again... nt.

[Proud liberal 80]

19. I wish they would stop spreading this lie

In 2016, almost all presidential polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump. The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump's 2016 surprise showing. TIPP, IBD's polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.

They had him winning the popular vote and he didn’t.

[CrispyQ]

20. I call bullshit on this: Biden is leaking Democratic support

[PatSeg]

35. I agree

Maybe the poll is an outlier, but anyone saying that Biden is leaking Democratic support is full of crap.

[Thekaspervote]

54. Leaking Dems...what a bunch of!!

Dems are so very enthused, who says that kind of stuff?

[PatSeg]

57. Probably people who want to believe that poll I suppose

I've never seen such enthusiasm among Democrats before, not even in 2008. There is so much more at stake this time.

[Thekaspervote]

62. +1000

[vercetti2021]

21. For the love of God

Not this shit again. Joe would not drop nine points all of a sudden. Who the fuck is this pollster?

[Polybius]

47. IBT is pretty well known

They were among the top in 2016, but this year they seem to be giving Republicans more of a chance than any other pollster, Senate candidates especially. We'll know in two weeks how inaccurate they are.

[Fiendish Thingy]

22. Bullshit RW poll 538 avg: Biden +10.3%, 538 odds: Biden 87/Trump 12 outliers gonna lie. Nt

[catbyte]

23. I refuse to freak out. Cook, 538, & The Economist all show a Biden victory. Numbers stable.

Cook:

290-168 Biden

https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-09/EC%20Ratings.092920.2.pdf

The Economist:

346-192

https://www.economist.com/us-election-2020

538: Biden 87% chance of winning

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[Botany]

24. Selling "the horse race."

Trump is bleeding support daily and almost by the hour.

[videohead5]

25. A poll just released this morning

Has Biden up by 9 points. I can't remember what poll it was?

[Thekaspervote]

39. That poll was from the NYT

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142608803

[bucolic_frolic]

27. You would expect this from a conservative rag

I am cynical about polls. You think MAGAts are not going to lie to them? To MAGAts, pollsters are practically the Deep State. A voice of authority on the phone. So, they've been lying all along and now they flip to create the illusion of momentum.

You think Democrats who are polled don't know the game? They fear overconfidence, so now a few % of them flip to lying to pollsters to motivate our base.

IOW, it was never 18 points, and it's not 2.3 points now. And this poll is nonsense anyway. An outlier to create a horse race for Republicans and to motivate their base.

[Lock him up.]

29. It's a sh!t poll BUT TELL EVERYONE TO GET OUT AND VOTE

the likes of which they've never voted before like their very own LIFE depends on it BECAUSE IT DOES! We're under ATTACK by Putin's dictatorship for the Rich since 2015 and nobody else than YOUR VOTE can defeat them at this point and IN-PERSON VOTING CAN (screw voting by mail if you can)!

National polls mean Look at the swing-states polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ but don't get complacent: Tell everyone to get out with OXIGEN MASKS if they can and go get in the lines! Bring portable CHAIRS and play CARDS or whatever else!

(Apologies for caps but it REALLY matters.)

[Sloumeau]

30. That is just one poll.

Please go to fivethirtyeight.com and look a the average of polls. Biden's average of the polls is 10.2 percent over Trump.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

[Tommymac]

36. The Rethugs need outliers like this to 'justify' to MSM a false stolen election meme.

Just like 2004 - Kerry IMHO won in Ohio - but they used fucked polls to persuade Dems not to contest it.

Fuckers.

[PatSeg]

37. Thank you

That chart shows that Biden for the most part has been consistently going up over recent months.

[IronLionZion]

38. If it's close and Trump loses, they will cast all sorts of doubts on the election results

it needs to be a big enough blue wave landslide that it shuts these assholes up for a while.

538 still showing a comfortable lead for Biden, slim lead for Senate Dems, and solid majority for House Dems.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[RandySF]

42. It's always been the the tighter poll.

[patphil]

44. This poll showed about the same numbers in it's previous iteration.

From their point of view, nothing has changed.
All the other polls have shown Biden doing well. I guess we'll have to see what the latest FOX and Rasmussen polls say to see if the Republicans are really gaining ground.
My guess is they aren't.

[Dr. Jack]

45. Last I checked, 8 other national polls were released today

None of them showed Biden lower than the upper single digits and one had him up 12. Don't sweat one poll. It will drive you nuts

[Cryptoad]

46. What happen tot he rules we use,,,

to have abt keeping this kind shit from being posted??????

[LiberalFighter]

48. Jed Graham writes about economic policy...

Where does he get his understanding of interpreting polls?

By the way, it appears that the IBD/TIPP "poll" is online/live type of poll.

[C Moon]

49. I recall the same thing happening in 2016.

Early on, Trump was looked at by us as a ridiculous choice by the GOP—I can remember he wasn't even able to find a VP—and then as election day neared, the polls began showing a tighter race. Although, it still looked as though Hillary would take it. But with the help of Putin, Trump was able to get the electoral votes.

But there is a difference this time: everyone knows who Trump is politically. He made vague promises in 2016: his own healthcare plan, etc. He didn't come through.

I still believe Putin had a hand in changing votes in 2016...there were too many strange things going on at the booths. And I believe Putin will be at it again—because NOTHING was done to prevent it. But this time, the mailed in votes are going to hurt that stealing.

[StevieM]

52. I recall James Comey happening in 2016.

I believe he was more important than every other factor put together in that election.

[C Moon]

63. True.

[denbot]

50. Low post count, check. Concern, check. Stated discouragement, check.

Citing known conservative source (https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/investors-business-daily/),
Check.

Yeah, seems legit.

Now, where did I leave that alert button..

[matt819]

51. Here's the analogy

I chose this race caller because he's the only one whose name I know, which is because his daughter was one of my teachers in high school about a gazillion years ago.

In any case, this is what it's all about to "The Media."

Someone oughta do a similar race call for this race, or any other political race.

[concretebluetwo]

53. IBD is well known for being nut-job level

..right wing.
I suspect this is contrived to give the fascists ground to claim legitimacy after they steal the election or to complain about the election being stolen.

[PoliticAverse]

55. Ignore polls just VOTE. n/t

[LymphocyteLover]

56. WHY ON EARTH WOULD BIDEN BE LOSING DEM SUPPORT?

THAT'S INSANE

[Hassin Bin Sober]

59. Here's what Nate Silver has to say.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/


President Trump is running out of time. Joe Biden leads by double digits in national polls, and state-level polling is only slightly closer. In fact, Biden’s lead is so large that traditionally red states like Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas might now go blue. We’ve entered the last two-week stretch before Election Day, and Trump needs the race to tighten — we’re way past the point where a normal polling error could let Trump close the gap. Still, Trump has a meaningful chance per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

The last two weeks of the campaign can be an incredibly stressful time, though, so here are eight tips from editor-in-chief Nate Silver to stay sane, including advice like paying attention to polling averages (not individual polls) and not putting too much stock in how either campaign “feels” (they usually do not have a better read on the race than the polls.)

Should you trust the polls this year? Yes. But we understand that many people have lingering questions after 2016, even though Trump was just a normal polling error behind Hillary Clinton. So here’s what 15 pollsters told us they’ve changed since 2016 (a lot of them weight by education now) and what still worries them about 2020.

[TheFarseer]

60. I'd be shocked if Howie Hawkins

Got over half a percent. I’m pretty plugged into the crowd that you would suspect could vote for him and I’m just not seeing it.

[beachbumbob]

61. Again pure nonsense

[iluvtennis]

64. Take the polls with double dose of salt....we all just need to vote. nt

[Red State Prisoner]

65. This is a highly rated poll. However

The Siena College/The New York Times Upshot is better. A+ rating. Relax, take a break, and vote.

[olegramps]

66. The only thing I fear is apathy by those who actually support Biden and hate Trump.

[Ricky-by-the-lake]

67. Assume it's correct and work your ass off to elect Joe.

The race has always been expected to tighten as we get closer to Election day. We don’t want another November surprise like we had in 2016.

[beaglelover]

68. Trump certainly seems to have the enthusiasm on his side. Just like last time.

I'm trying to remain optimistic given the early voting enthusiasm that seems to be out there, but it's getting harder and harder. Please democrats, GOTV!

[NurseJackie]

70. We're doomed!

[Initech]

71. I'm not sure I would cite Investor's Business Daily as a credible source on this.

[reader1]

72. Disregard this Trump Poll

Someone by the name of Jed Graham, who is a Trump supporter, started to conduct polling just around a week ago. Also, if you read his polling carefully, you would have noticed this is a snapshot of a one day poll of just 200 people. So disregard this poll, it is worthless.

[GoneOffShore]

73. And thank you for your concern.

[applegrove]

74. After discussion with hosts ... LOCKING

Alert: source

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/investors-business-daily/

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