Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll

In 2016, almost all presidential polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump. The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump's 2016 surprise showing. TIPP, IBD's polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/


President Trump is running out of time. Joe Biden leads by double digits in national polls, and state-level polling is only slightly closer. In fact, Biden’s lead is so large that traditionally red states like Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas might now go blue. We’ve entered the last two-week stretch before Election Day, and Trump needs the race to tighten — we’re way past the point where a normal polling error could let Trump close the gap. Still, Trump has a meaningful chance per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

The last two weeks of the campaign can be an incredibly stressful time, though, so here are eight tips from editor-in-chief Nate Silver to stay sane, including advice like paying attention to polling averages (not individual polls) and not putting too much stock in how either campaign “feels” (they usually do not have a better read on the race than the polls.)

Should you trust the polls this year? Yes. But we understand that many people have lingering questions after 2016, even though Trump was just a normal polling error behind Hillary Clinton. So here’s what 15 pollsters told us they’ve changed since 2016 (a lot of them weight by education now) and what still worries them about 2020.