Fox News poll: 2012 Obama-Romney race would be tight

[highplainsdem]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/01/15/fox-news-poll-2012-obama-romney-race-would-be-tight/

President Barack Obama and Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney are essentially tied in a hypothetical general election matchup. Still, Obama’s support is stronger and more positive than Romney’s.

That’s according to a Fox News poll released Monday.

In a potential Obama-Romney election, 46 percent of voters would back Obama and 45 percent Romney if the election were held today. The president’s narrow advantage is well within the poll’s three percentage-point margin of sampling error.

And behind those numbers is a striking contrast: 74 percent of Obama backers say they are voting “for” him rather than “against Romney” (21 percent). Yet for Romney, his support is mainly anti-Obama. Fifty-eight percent of Romney voters say they would be voting “against Obama” rather than “for Romney” (33 percent).

-snip-

Emphasis added.

That's the kind of enthusiasm gap I like. And there will be even less enthusiasm for Romney, as more becomes known about him.

[meegbear]

1. I'm surprised about that ...

In 2004, they would touts polls with +/- 3 points. When Kerry was 2 points ahead it was a "statistical dead heat". When Bush was 2 points ahead it was a "President Bush ahead by 2 points".

This is probably reported to give their people something to shoot for. Watch the poll verbage as the campaign continues.

[Little Star]

2. PBO is gonna wipe the floor with any one of them. Someone needs to buy FOX a clue....

That's how I really see it.

That doesn't mean we should not do our due diligence and work our butts off. Why take any chances no matter how remote they may be.

[leftyohiolib]

3. you would think that in a fox poll of fox viewers

the repub would do better the fact that he hasnt is telling

[OnTheOtherHand]

26. not of Fox viewers

This was a national poll conducted under the joint direction of two polling firms -- one D, one R. Fox polling generally is solid, although the reporting may not be. (As with any survey, but maybe more with Fox, it's good to look at the details of the poll.)

ETA: When I say "solid," I mean "as solid as any other polling." It's better to consider a bunch of polls than just one -- but no matter how many polls we consider, it's January....

[leftyohiolib]

76. thankyou for the correction

[FailureToCommunicate]

4. "Yet for Romney, his support is mainly anti-Obama..."

They don't like him cause he's a reformed smoker??

[qanda]

5. Old Mitt the Ripper

That one will stick!

[Old and In the Way]

6. This is Romney's hi water mark.

It's all downhill from here.

[totodeinhere]

23. How do you know that? I wish I had your crystal ball. n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

83. No one knows that...

But Romney is getting about as much free press as he'll get in this campaign. Generally, when one party is in the process of picking its nominee, they receive relative good numbers against the sitting president. Kerry, at this point eight years ago, led Bush, and in some instances the lead was by a sizable margin (7 points).

Why? Because the focus is almost entirely on the candidate as he wraps up victories. Obama is president, but he's not getting near the spotlight as Romney. So, it shouldn't be a surprise people would consider this his high watermark because once it's mano a mano, Romney's numbers are unlikely to rise and more likely to fall (as was the case for Kerry in '04 and Dole in '96 - whose high numbers were earlier in the year).

[totodeinhere]

84. I agree with everything you said. But under certain circumstances an incumbent president can lose as

we all know. Just ask Jimmy Carter or George H. W. Bush.

Obama is the favorite but some unforeseen event happening between now November could change the dynamic of the race.

[madrchsod]

7. the voting machines will be set to assure a very close race.

the republicans will have to vote for him whether they like him or not.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

72. And they will vote for him, whether they actually do or not.

[tawadi]

8. We really need the unrec feature for threads like this. eom

[stevenleser]

31. Why? If you have an issue with it, why cant you articulate it? Is it that hard to do? nt

[tawadi]

45. OK. I will tell you

I don't give a fuck what Fox News has to say. And I wish people would stop posting their crap on du.

[stonecutter357]

47. Indeed,

well said.

[zanana1]

66. +1,000 nt

[Wistful Vista]

49. So, kill the messenger is the proper approach? Just because FoxNews is a scumbag outfit does not

mean they are unable to report any facts. Anyone who thinks the next election won't be a nail-biter for both sides is simply delusional. There are millions of Democrats who would love for a candidate with true Progressive/Liberal chops to challenge Pres. Obama. That doesn't mean I would ever vote for a Republican running against him but I'll promise you a lot of the people on our side might just stay home on Nov 6 - a fair number of my own Democratic friends have threatened to do so...some because of how the Obama admin is far too often politically tone-deaf, like in this case: http://blog.aopa.org/aopanow/?p=1074

That's an example of an idea that may sound good for 10 seconds but completely misses the
virtual certainty of the negative unintended and horrific consequences of implementing it.

[October]

51. FoxNews is NOT able to report any facts.

How does the unrec feature equate to "killing the messenger?"

[Wistful Vista]

54. I have no idea how to respond to such an obtuse post.

I didn't mention 'unrec', it was not an element of my comment.

Do you judge every person and/or entity in a binary fashion with no appreciation of or allowance for nuance or mitigation?

[October]

89. (Yet, you responded.) My apologies. That was some sort of a tech glitch is my best guess.

[varelse]

59. It's not the ability I question

it's the willingness.

[Wistful Vista]

60. Willingness......to do what? Vote? I must confess I don't understand your comment...

and would appreciate any clarification you'd care to help me with...

[Skittles]

52. I agree

Fox News simply is not a legitimate news source

[Wistful Vista]

55. Yes, we must only pay attention to those news sources that are never, ever wrong..about anything.

[Art_from_Ark]

61. Fox News actually went to court to defend their "right" to falsify news

http://ceasespin.org/ceasespin_blog/ceasespin_blogger_files/fox_news_gets_okay_to_misinform_public.html

Why should anyone give them the time of day, much less consider them as anything even approaching a news service?
Fox is a few notches below Weekly World News.

[zanana1]

67. Who are you......really? nt

[Wistful Vista]

78. Someone who thinks that shooting the messenger no matter the message is incredibly stupid.

Thass who

[October]

88. Really? No matter the messenger? Interesting philosophy.

Fox News lies, and because they are not "broadcast" news they are allowed to lie.

[Skittles]

70. what part of the word LEGITIMATE do you not understand?

[Wistful Vista]

80. I get your position...you believe they are never right. Tell me about one that's never wrong, and

I promise to become their most fervent supporter.

[Skittles]

81. no

I believe they have an AGENDA and twist EVERYTHING - even if they are "right" - to fit that agenda - they simply CANNOT be considered a LEGITIMATE news source

[mac56]

77. Rupert? 'Zat you?

[Wistful Vista]

79. Very funny.

But not very smart.

[mac56]

82. "Not very smart"

says the person who comes to DU to defend Fox News.

[October]

90. Is that your only defense of Fox News? To say that others are wrong sometimes, too?

It's an understatement of Biblical proportion to suggest that Fox "News" is only sometimes wrong. They are purposefully wrong all too often. There is a difference.

[dmosh42]

9. Surely we would believe a poll by 'Fux News'!

[existentialist]

30. election chances

While I wouldn't believe the poll, I stil think it good news.

If they were to distort (likely, and most likely in their phrasing of the questions and selection of the sample) they would distort to help Romney look good.

But he doesn't look good.

My read: Obama and Democrats generally have an edge as of now--but their are still 9+ months to go. Anything can happen.

But given Romney's tendency to make gaffes, and his vulnerable record, and the disconnect of Republicans generally from reality, I would expect both Obama and Democrats generally to improve.

This is far from a guarantee of success, but I like our chances a little better with each passing week.

[TheEuclideanOne]

10. Don't forget to subtract %12 for disenfranchised voters

So, if Mitt the Ripper is down by 8%, it means he will win by 4%.

[highplainsdem]

16. As is clear from the OP, I posted the poll because of the enthusiasm gap it shows.

LBN rules don't allow me to change the subject line, as I understand it. I have to use the headline.

Even Fox News can't find much enthusiasm among GOP voters for Romney. I think that's worth drawing attention to.

As for your snide "How much does Rove pay you?" question and your ridiculous suggestion that I'm somehow "addicted to right-wing propaganda" -- I suggest you look at my other posts.

If you DON'T believe this is likely to be a tight election, then you must have missed most news stories and analyses in recent years.

It's important that the enthusiasm gap is more and more likely to be one that favors Obama over Romney. Even Fox News is recognizing this.

[still_one]

19. Unless we can get win some states in the south, the enthusiasm gap will not matter in my view. It

is a battle for the independent vote, and that vote in the southern states is going to be very hard to secure for us

The south will never allow the country to get rid of the electoral college. If that was the case, the enthusiasm gap would be a much bigger factor

[usregimechange]

12. That's just a different type of enthusiasm, and not necessarily less motivating

[stockholmer]

15. +1

[thelordofhell]

13. Yeah, it's gonna be a close one

[gateley]

14. It will be close regardless of the Rep candidate. I think the anti-Obama vote will be huge.

Hate is a good motivator.

Plus, if the economy isn't doing better -- to the point where we can actually see/experience it, they low-information voters will just vote for the other guy.

[Ishoutandscream2]

17. Yes, a lot can happen in 9 in a half months

[Wistful Vista]

50. You have distilled the blather down to the undeniable simple truth.

The only thing worse than apathy is overconfidence.

[zanana1]

68. I've been doing volunteer work for Obama's campaign....

I've called hundreds of people. At first, I was expecting negative answers about him. I was so wrong. OUT OF ALL THOSE PEOPLE, ONLY TWO SAID THEY WON'T VOTE FOR HIM. So put that in your pipe and smoke it.

[Wistful Vista]

75. Well then, that's wonderful news...we can all kick back, relax and not even worry.

About anything.

[fujiyama]

93. Which state? Do you know the demographics of these people?

I get a much angrier vibe from white people of various ages, but especially middle aged and older white males. They seem threatened by him for some reason. And I don't think it's really just race either (I know some of them loved Herman Cain), though in some cases they are somewhat xenophobic and believe birther nonsense.

I still don't sense any real enthusiasm for Romney. And while he'll solidify his base to some extent over the next few months (also depends on the VP choice), the guy is so obviously phony and completely out of touch. I think many moderate independents will see through that.

[Epiphany4z]

18. yep time to get

a poll out to convince repubs they must choose Romney

[rocktivity]

20. Consider the source

This story practically contradicts itself in mid-sentence!


rocktivity

[totodeinhere]

24. But several polls from other source are saying the same thing. The Real Clear Politics average

has it within the margin of error.

[Jack Rabbit]

21. Do you have a reliable source?

[stevenleser]

32. If you ever dispute any poll, go to pollingreport or realclearpolitics. This one is in line with

other polls.

[stonecutter357]

40. creepy

FAUX.

[ingac70]

22. Obama is one point ahead in a FAUX poll?

Add about 5 points to that.

[KeyserSoze87]

25. I doubt it will be that close.

Once people begin to learn about Romney's jobs record as governor and what he did at Bain Capital, Obama will win in a landslide. Hopefully, the economy will be improved by November, although it might not, considering that President Obama is being forced to go by the same stupid trickle-down economic policies that have never worked.

[Wistful Vista]

56. There are plenty people who will gladly accept if not praise what Mitt did in those venues.

You can ignore them if you wish, but please don't do it on behalf of us who think apathy is not a good thing.

[KeyserSoze87]

74. There are people out there who will accept what Romney did at Bain Capital? That's scary.

[Ter]

27. Strange how Obama is ahead in a Fox poll...

But down by as much as 6 in the others.

[SemperEadem]

44. which ones?

links?

[Wistful Vista]

57. It's entirely consistent with their political expertise to tell their followers that they're in dang

danger of losing. Can you think of a better way to rally their 'troops'?

[bathroommonkey76]

28. Fox also said that Gingrich was the clear front runner on December 8, 2011

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/12/08/fox-news-poll-gingrich-leads-in-gop-voter-preference/

Don't believe everything you read on their site.

[stevenleser]

33. Gingrich WAS the clear front runner at the time. All polls showed him in front at the time.

That the GOP electorate's preferences oscillated like a sine wave for seven months is no reflection on a poll that took a correct instantaneous snapshot of voter preferences.

[bathroommonkey76]

37. I don't believe that Gingrich led in voter preference or

any other type of polling. All of it was propaganda by Fox to generate public interest in the race.

Personally, I feel that this has been Romney's since McCain's defeat in 2008. The GOP always gives their 2nd place finishers the nod in the next election cycle.

[stevenleser]

86. How many other polls would it take to convince you you are wrong

2,3,4? Let me know

[stevenleser]

87. For instance, here is all Real Clear Politics Iowa caucus data

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html#polls

It clearly shows that every poll between 11/15 and 12/12 had Gingrich in the lead. That includes polls by ABC, NBC, The Des Moines register, Rasmussen, the University of Iowa, PPP(D) and Insider Advantage.

[Turbineguy]

29. Does that include the 15-20%

GOP vote fraud?

[Guy Montag]

34. I hope it isn't tight, we need Barack to blow this guy's doors off

We need to increase the numbers of Democrats in both the House and the Senate.

[Richardo]

35. What states do the respondents live in?

Popular vote polls in presidential contests are a huge waste of time and energy, and mean less than squat.

[groundloop]

36. One factor not considered - President Obama hasn't started campaigning yet

I suspect that Mittens is polling as well as he is against President Obama because all we've seen in the news recently has been the repub candidates. Once the President starts campaigning in earnest those numbers are bound to change. Our job is to not be complacent, get out the vote, and take back as many House and Senate seats as possible.

[Pholus]

38. You also must interpret FOX much like Pravda. tight race = Romney losing. landslide = Romney ahead

In some ways, such a heavy bias can give you a fairly accurate barometer of the truth if you know how to read it.

[Rex]

39. So IOW it would be a landslide for Obama.

nt

[SoapBox]

41. According to Fux News??? LOL

I will never...EVER...vote for a Bagger. Period.

President Obama has my vote...my Mom's...my Aunt's...my Cousin's...my Neighbor's...and others too.

Bring it Mittens.

[Mojorabbit]

42. This is good to know. Can't take any thing for granted. nt

[SemperEadem]

43. only in fux land is this true

their little parallel universe is a creation of their fevered, small minds.

[crim son]

46. Not sure the enthusiasm gap will mean much on voting day.

Rethugs will vote for their candidate, just like disgruntled (or just plain old pissed off) dems will vote for Obama.

[Fearless]

48. Well if Fox says it it must be true...

In actuality, it's good news if EVEN Fox is saying it will be "close". They're usually predicting huge landslide wins. Oops!

[Tutankhamun]

53. Fox News needs proper interpretation.

If Fox says, "Obama-Romney race would be tight" what that actually means is that such a race would, in fact, not be tight.

If Fox News says "X is true" that really means "X could not possibly be true." Therefore this headline really means that an Obama-Romney race, according to Fox polling, would not be close.

[Wistful Vista]

58. When I was a kid, we called that "whistling past the graveyard". As a longtime grownup, I call it

whistling past the graveyard.

[Tutankhamun]

85. I meant to write “according to Fox News polling”

in the first paragraph as well. i just meant that Fox is so untrustworthy that reversing the results of their alleged polls should yield more accurate reflections of public opinion than if such polls are taken at face value.

Of course writing something and claiming you meant to write it are pretty different things.

i definitely don't believe an actual Obama/Romney poll wouldn't or couldn't be close.

[0rganism]

62. the secondary stats suggest this will be all about Obama

74 percent of Obama backers say they are voting “for” him
58 percent of Romney voters say they would be voting “against Obama”

To me, this indicates Romney runs the negative anti-Obama campaign and Obama runs positive on his record. Romney won't be getting much bang for the ad buck out of pumping himself up, nor will Obama get much by putting Romney down. This is entirely a referendum on Obama's performance and policies, which will come as a relief to the Romney campaign since they won't have to do anything in the way of outlining Romney's own plans, which would naturally be a self-defeating waste of time. On the other hand, the president has a lot of positives to work with. If Obama can dodge the blame for a lackluster economy, he can run effectively on the rest of his record.

[truthisfreedom]

63. Wow. Any reasonable analysis would conclude...

The republicans are going to stay home. Nobody's going to vote but us.

[MissMillie]

73. Down-ticket races will make a difference, I think.

Congressional and local races may bring enough of the Tea Party to the polls, and they will vote against the President. Here in MA, the GOP won't feel the need to go to the polls to vote against Obama because that will be a moot point, but they will go to the polls to vote for Scott Brown, and while they're there, they'll vote Romney. Romney won't win MA, but you can see how this scenario might make a difference in swing states.

[Presidentcokedupfratboy]

64. It is only a Faux "News" poll

But it is going to be close. I still think Obama will win.

[Hugin]

65. Will it be close enough to steal?

Or will they steal it anyway?

[DonCoquixote]

69. do not think of terms of common sense

because the (censored) who own the machines and legislatures do not have to give a (censored) about common sense!

First off, I can tell you that in Florida the fix is in, not just because they put laws in that disenfranchise minorties and student, not just because they have a convention here that is being hyped as money for the state (even though we will lose money just for the costs of security)

Those are bad, but the worst is that down here, home of the tea party, the creeps who used to wear Klan Hats, who bragged about hanging blacks back in the day (all of ten years ago) know that they will be empowered to do whatever they like. They already brag in the papers about how they will get guns and kill protestors. They brag about how Cops willbe given a green light to bust heads, because they are already planning to fire any cop who does not. The Churches are on Blast, and anyone who thinks that means anything bad for Romney is a fool, because they think Obama has been so bad they will take him in, especially if he picks a Catholic like Newt or Santorum for his running mate. And let us not forget Marco Rubio and the Cubans, who want Obama killed because a few flights to Cuba were allowed. They want to see Romney serve, the put Rubio in as president. Sadly, they tend to do the long term planning a bit better than we do.

I do not know how the other swings states are, but we have to assume that every single dirty trick, up to and including killing people, will be used.

And let us not forget another group, Israel wants that war with Iran BAD, they know that, as weak as Obama and Hillary have been, as much as they have allowed Netanyahu to use them as ashtrays, they need a GOP man in there. All they have to do is attack, and this whiole election will become one where "we can't allow the russians to destory Israel." Now, I know there are many Jews who are even more sick of the Zionist BS than palestinians are, sick of how their name is invoked, but if you think the Zionist will not roll out the cash to buy time, you are wrong, especially with assholes like Bloomberg and LIEberman ready to strike up the band.

WE have to assume this will be the time to walk across the flaming coals. The Media will be fully complicit in any lies, as they have nothing to lose from choas. They have what Hamilton called a "vested interest in disorder."

and yes, I will admit, Obama has been a disappointment, but as much as people dismiss the "lesser of two evils" as poo poo, the fact is, we saw what happened the last time we threw away the imperfect (Gore) searching for some ideal, we got W. and as much as some do not want to hear this, ANY GOP has the potential to be so bad they will make W. look like Halycon days, and that is not even if they get their war with Iran!

[TomClash]

71. Who cares?

PPP had it as a dead heat in December too.

It won't matter until after Labor Day when the swing voters begin to decide and potential turnout can begin to be gauged.

[gregtownsand]

91. It will be tight. Mitt is a threat to Obama is Mass and Michigan

Two states that are almost always blue. I don't think Obama can win Florida this time, and is unlikely to win Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia again. Nevada, and Colorado are also going to be tough. If Obama wins it will be with about 275 electoral votes this time.

[high density]

92. Right, because polls in February tell the story of November 2012.

Thanks, Fox, for this insight.