Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Plunges to Lowest Since 2011

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: Bloomberg

Economics

Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Plunges to Lowest Since 2011

By Jordan Yadoo
August 13, 2021, 10:00 AM EDT Updated on August 13, 2021, 10:19 AM EDT

-- University of Michigan index slumps by 11 points to 70.2
-- Concerns grow about virus, outlook for economy, income

U.S. consumer sentiment fell in early August to the lowest level in nearly a decade as Americans grew more concerned about the economy's prospects, inflation and the recent surge in coronavirus cases.

The University of Michigan's preliminary sentiment index fell by 11 points to 70.2, the lowest since December 2011, data released Friday showed. The figure fell well short of all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Consumer sentiment in U.S. plunges on concerns about virus, economic prospects

The slump in confidence risks a more pronounced slowing in economic growth in coming months should consumers rein in spending. The recent deterioration in sentiment highlights how rising prices and concerns about the delta variant's potential impact on the economy are weighing on Americans.

"Consumers have correctly reasoned that the economy's performance will be diminished over the next several months, but the extraordinary surge in negative economic assessments also reflects an emotional response, mainly from dashed hopes that the pandemic would soon end," Richard Curtin, director of the survey, said in the report.

Following the data, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell, the Bloomberg dollar index traded at its lows for the day, and the S&P 500 lost ground.

The expectations gauge plummeted almost 14 points to 65.2, the lowest since October 2013. A measure of consumers' outlook for the economy over the coming year soured, falling the most since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020.

Only 36% of respondents expect a decline in the jobless rate, down from 52% the prior month, despite record job openings. Consumers also became decidedly downbeat about their income prospects. The gauge of expected personal finances fell to a seven-year low.

{snip}

-- With assistance by Chris Middleton, and Benjamin Purvis

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-13/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-plunges-to-lowest-since-2011

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Hat tip, MarketWatch, for keeping track of the economic releases

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

[Mary in S. Carolina]

1. I don't believe it

In 2011 everyone lost their homes and in 2020 everyone thought they were going to die from Covid.

Today, no or few homes are being lost, also, in my neck of the woods, people have a ton of equity and savings. In addition, 70% of all American adults have at least one vaccination - so the death factor does not seem so eminent.

Having said that, many restaurants, retailers, tradespeople, etc have increased their pricing, but many have not. Those who have kept pricing stable are reaping the rewards and those that have increased pricing are seeing a drop in consumer purchases.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

4. Here's your chance to tell them.

University of Michigan's preliminary sentiment index

University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers

For questions or data inquiries, please contact [e-mail]

Richard Curtin
Director
[e-mail]

Z. Tuba Suzer-Gurtekin
Assistant Research Scientist
[e-mail]

Edward Ellcey
Research Area Specialist
[e-mail]

Callie Cothern
Research Technician Associate
[e-mail]

Jim Zajkowski
Web Developer
[e-mail]

Survey Research Center
University of Michigan
P.O. Box 1248
Ann Arbor, MI 48106
Phone: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
E-mail: [e-mail]

Copyright © 2021, The Regents of the University of Michigan. All Rights Reserved.

[Mary in S. Carolina]

5. Thank you

I am a huge fan of the educated and their opinions, but to me, there is a huge difference in the sentiment of Americans in the 2010 economy and the sentiment of Americans in the 2021 economy; this study and results just don't ring true.

[Dopers_Greed]

10. The media has been overhyping "inflation" to keep people scared

It's working.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

13. LBN is not a beauty contest.

News can fall into two categories.

There are things that happen that you like, and there are things that happen that you don't like.

Your not liking something does not make it a conspiracy.

It's still news, and I'm still going to post it.

Thanks for writing.

[LanternWaste]

15. No one is arguing otherwise.

Most human skin is only about 2 mm thick.

[onetexan]

14. +1 -K&R

[IronLionZion]

2. China's getting hit with delta now

so that will disrupt many supply chains even more and prices will keep rising for imported parts and stuff.

[Historic NY]

3. Your not going to have a thriving economy when the pandemic

still rages. Who the fuck wants to take a chance traveling around in the RED zone, when it is apparent for the loading and unloading of bodies. We could have been out of this except for about 100 million assholes refusing to follow the guidelines and rules. Now employee mandates by business, governments might knock that number down. Florida how now passed NY City's death rate, isn't that depressing. My section of NY is back in the red, why because of people commuting, but mainly its the influx of people hitting the three groceries stores that are at a major cross road. The immediate area is loaded with senior and apt. & condo developments. I have only been out to eat a few times, haven't set foot in a bar, limited socializing to a few people. It sucks just when we thought it was safe to go into the water the morons are making it difficult.

[NQAS]

6. I'm not a big picture guy

I don't have the data or, frankly, the desire to interpret the data.

Like most more or less normal people, I kind of look around my community and kinda sorta assume that the same sentiments apply on a broader scale.

And most people I talk to are doing pretty well. Skilled labor. Builders. Site work companies. Landscapers. Garages, mechanics. The tire store. The local sporting goods and promotional goods supplier. The guy who runs an authorized UPS/FedEx outlet. They're busier than they've ever been. Many are not even returning calls. They're swamped. Granted, these are just the people I talk to. Maybe the same businesses next door are struggling. I don't know. But the people I talk to are feeling pretty good about business. And if their customers are spending money, I would think you could call that positive consumer sentiment.

Sure, there are gripes. I learned yesterday that there's a paint shortage due in part to the Texas freeze last winter (damage to Sherwin Williams facilities). My mechanic told me there's a brake rotor shortage, with many distributors out of stock and no one willing to project delivery dates. I import stuff from Europe, and my delivery times are up to 3-4 months, from 2-3 months before. And don't get me started on increased shipping costs. But sentiment? Positive.

Covid is an issue, of course. People are concerned, but they're dealing with it the best they can. It may affect their attitudes about many things (as it does mine), but "consumer sentiment" is not one of them.

But as I said, this is the view at 3,000 feet. In my community in northern New England. I couldn't speak to the "elsewhere" issue, but the worse since 2011 just doesn't sound right.

[INdemo]

7. I think a Trumpster is cooking the books This can't be right

Last edited Sat Aug 14, 2021, 06:34 AM - Edit history (1)

the last paragraph is a total line of Bull Shit.
Ill trust Krugman when he has a statement about this.

[DeeNice]

8. Consumer sentiment? wtf is that? Consumer confidence on the other hand...

[link:https://conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm|]

[link:https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/consumer-confidence-sentiment-difference.asp|

[mahatmakanejeeves]

9. Thanks for the clarification. NT

[Dopers_Greed]

11. This proves how little Americans know about the economy

Stock market: all-time high
Unemployment: lowest numbers since start of pandemic

Most analysts agree that we're on the cusp of an economic boom.

And IMO all the fear-mongering about inflation is FAKE NEWS.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

12. You must not have been to the grocery store lately.

"Wait a minute. The last time I was here, that cost ..."

People have a pretty good grasp that they spent more at the grocery store this week than they spent last week.

They might not be able to discuss microeconomics on the level of a PhD dissertation, but they definitely know where their money is going.

Thanks for writing.