Florida changed its COVID-19 data, creating an 'artificial decline' in recent deaths
Source: Miami Herald
August 31, 2021 10:12 AM
As the delta variant spreads through Florida, data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest this could be the most serious and deadly surge in COVID-19 infections since the beginning of the pandemic.
As cases ballooned in August, however, the Florida Department of Health changed the way it reported death data to the CDC, giving the appearance of a pandemic in decline, an analysis of Florida data by the Miami Herald and el Nuevo Herald found.
On Monday, Florida death data would have shown an average of 262 daily deaths reported to the CDC over the previous week had the health department used its former reporting system, the Herald analysis showed. Instead, the Monday update from Florida showed just 46 new deaths per day over the previous seven days.
The dramatic difference is due to a small change in the fine print. Until three weeks ago, data collected by DOH and published on the CDC website counted deaths by the date they were recorded a common method for producing daily stats used by most states. On Aug. 10, Florida switched its methodology and, along with just a handful of other states, began to tally new deaths by the date the person died.
If you chart deaths by Floridas new method, based on date of death, it will generally appear even during a spike like the present that deaths are on a recent downslope. Thats because it takes time for deaths to be evaluated and death certificates processed. When those deaths finally are tallied, they are assigned to the actual data of death creating a spike where there once existed a downslope and moving the downslope forward in time.
Shivani Patel, a social epidemiologist and assistant professor at Emory University called the move extremely problematic, especially since it came without warning or explanation during a rise in cases....................................................................................
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Read more: https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article253796898.html?__twitter_impression=true
People voting Gov DeSantis and his crooked Admin back into office are as crooked as he is!
As cases ballooned in August, however, the Florida Department of Health changed the way it reported death data to the CDC, giving the appearance of a pandemic in decline, an analysis of Florida data by the Miami Herald and el Nuevo Herald found.
Link to tweet
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Aerial view shows cars lining up at Tropical Parks COVID-19 testing site in Miami, Florida on Friday, July 30, 2021.
COVID-19 Deaths reporting delays can distort trends for weeks
It often takes weeks after someone dies of COVID-19 for that death certificate to be processed and reflected in death data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. As a result, deaths reported by date of death will initially appear to decline, even if more people are dying each day, because data are incomplete.
27Jul2829303101Aug0203040506070809020406080100120140160180200
Aug. 10
Aug. 10
Aug. 23
Aug. 23
Aug.17
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Aug. 26
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Seven-day trend using Aug. 26 data
Seven-day trend using Aug. 10 data
Report date:
Date of Death
COVID-19 Deaths
COVID-19 death data used in this chart were downloaded from the CDC on Aug. 26, Aug. 23, Aug. 17 and Aug. 10, 2021. The CDC confirmed these data are reported by date the death occurred.
Chart: Sarah Blaskey and Ana Claudia Chacin Source: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Get the data
groundloop
(11,518 posts)However, I certainly wouldn't put it bast DeSatan to be manipulating this to make it look better than it is.
ananda
(28,856 posts)It was so obvious just looking at Worldometer.
JudyM
(29,225 posts)in light of Covid.
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)That it needs: reliable data. They seem to rely on the states whose ability to collect numbers vary a lot.
Lonestarblue
(9,963 posts)The fact that people initially had so much trouble getting vaccine appointments was just crazy.
And another major weakness has been the states that have yet to disburse the federal money for landlords to prevent evictions. Most of that money is still with the states, both red and blue. It seems they dont have a mechanism for reaching the right people. Meanwhile, landlords are tired of waiting and evicting people.
PSPS
(13,588 posts)More accurately, "states whose willingness to collect numbers vary a lot." Not surprisingly, it's MAGA states that always fudge or resist revealing the truth.
gab13by13
(21,290 posts)but this has nothing to do with the CDC, this is a deliberate act by DeSantis to hide Covid infections and deaths.
JudyM
(29,225 posts)particularly since the timing of trends is a critical epidemiological issue. Death, as measured by x is simple to standardize. Standardizing measurements is one of the most basic epidemiological analysis principles.
No question about desantis scheming, however!
crickets
(25,960 posts)and consequences for noncompliance have all been sorely lacking. The CDC still seems somewhat rudderless and prone to political pressure.
bluestarone
(16,900 posts)DO NOT TRUST Rethuglicon governing states!! NEVER NEVER NEVER!!!
IronLionZion
(45,411 posts)but DeathSentence would prefer alternative facts in the style of Trump.
bullwinkle428
(20,629 posts)Among other states.
Auggie
(31,156 posts)BlueWavePsych
(2,635 posts)gab13by13
(21,290 posts)and DeSantis needs to be called on the carpet for this, Florida residents need to be raising holy hell over this.
apnu
(8,751 posts)There's a ton of back-and-forth about Mrs. Jones. She said then that FL was messing about with COVID numbers.
Here we are again.
llmart
(15,536 posts)DeSantis has been fudging the numbers in Florida from the very beginning of the pandemic, so this is not at all shocking to me.
dameatball
(7,396 posts)There was a brief mention of this toward the end of today's Stephanie Miller Show. I assume MSNBC and CNN will cover this today. It will be interesting to see if the story runs on local news this evening.
bringthePaine
(1,727 posts)2naSalit
(86,515 posts)Jimbo S
(2,958 posts)I've noticed the rate of new cases has declined something like 20% in Florida the last two weeks. No action has been implemented in the last month, so why the drop? I do not see a logical reason.
cadoman
(792 posts)This situation screams for a regulated baseline standard for death reporting and I hope the Biden administration can make something like that happen. They're the right people for the job in the right circumstances.
What is Florida going to do? Shift the reporting system back and forth so that the high numbers are always earlier or later than the present time?