Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

BumRushDaShow

(128,527 posts)
Mon Oct 11, 2021, 05:07 PM Oct 2021

At least 85 percent of the world's population has been affected by human-induced climate change

Source: Washington Post

At least 85 percent of the global population has experienced weather events made worse by climate change, according to new research published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change. Using machine learning to analyze and map more than 100,000 studies of events that could be linked to global warming, researchers paired the analysis with a well-established data set of temperature and precipitation shifts caused by fossil fuel use and other sources of carbon emissions.

These combined findings — which focused on events such as crop failures, floods and heat waves — allowed scientists to make a solid link between rising temperatures and human activities. They concluded that global warming had already affected 80 percent of the world’s land area. “We have a huge evidence base now that documents how climate change is affecting our societies and our ecosystems,” said lead author Max Callaghan, researcher at the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change in Germany.

The study provides hard numbers to back up the lived experiences of people from New York City to South Sudan. “Climate change,” Callaghan said, “is visible and noticeable almost everywhere in the world.” The findings come amid a major push to get countries to commit to more ambitious climate goals ahead of a United Nations summit in Glasgow next month. Research shows that existing pledges will put the planet on track to heat up about 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century — a level of warming that would lead to drastic food and water shortages, deadly weather disasters and catastrophic ecosystem collapse.

Some of the world’s top emitters, including China and India, have yet to formally commit to a new 2030 emissions reduction target. Activists worry that an emerging energy crisis, which has raised prices and triggered blackouts, could imperil efforts to get developing economies to phase out polluting fuels. In United States, climate disasters have already caused at least 388 deaths and more than $100 billion in damage this year, according to analyses from The Washington Post and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/10/11/85-percent-population-climate-impacts/



Full headline: At least 85 percent of the world’s population has been affected by human-induced climate change, new study shows

Link to the referenced Nature publication - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01168-6



11 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
At least 85 percent of the world's population has been affected by human-induced climate change (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Oct 2021 OP
Sounds low to me Roy Rolling Oct 2021 #1
I think that is why they say BumRushDaShow Oct 2021 #2
We're finally doing something jimfields33 Oct 2021 #3
I'd say it's near 100 percent already. roamer65 Oct 2021 #4
...and still the Republicans persisted in their lies to Americans Champp Oct 2021 #5
A recent publication I read, I don't have the reference handy now... NNadir Oct 2021 #6
I don't think anyone was discounting the U.S.'s contribution to that BumRushDaShow Oct 2021 #7
Oh, I certainly agree with what you say but... NNadir Oct 2021 #8
I think we agree BumRushDaShow Oct 2021 #9
Those nasty little buggers, spotted lantern flies, can sure jump though. There are no known... NNadir Oct 2021 #10
Yup BumRushDaShow Oct 2021 #11

BumRushDaShow

(128,527 posts)
2. I think that is why they say
Mon Oct 11, 2021, 05:25 PM
Oct 2021

"at least".

Looking at the paper that was published, it appears they did a meta-analysis of over 100,000 papers that were previously published, and I'm guessing those previous publications covered the impacts in specific, but not "all" places.

jimfields33

(15,705 posts)
3. We're finally doing something
Mon Oct 11, 2021, 06:07 PM
Oct 2021

Electric cars will be mainstream soon enough. The pollution will lower and the carbon will go down too. Air conditioners aren’t using that Freon that was causing carbon problems. Oil will be dead in no more then 15 years. We have more work to do but it seems we are going towards action at least.

Champp

(2,114 posts)
5. ...and still the Republicans persisted in their lies to Americans
Mon Oct 11, 2021, 06:25 PM
Oct 2021

Dangerous Republican lies to America. Damn dangerous.

NNadir

(33,477 posts)
6. A recent publication I read, I don't have the reference handy now...
Tue Oct 12, 2021, 08:51 AM
Oct 2021

...indicated the nation that historically released the most carbon dioxide. That nation grew its economy on coal and slavery.

It's us.

To avoid inherently hypocritical focus on China or India, it is useful to look at per capita emissions.

China and India are important of course - all of humanity is - but we are in no position to talk down to anyone.

BumRushDaShow

(128,527 posts)
7. I don't think anyone was discounting the U.S.'s contribution to that
Tue Oct 12, 2021, 09:51 AM
Oct 2021

but I think it's looking at the graphs and when you start to see steeper incline to the point of a near-doubling of the rate of warming - and that was only recently (past 40 - 50 years) -

For example (from NOAA) -




And (from NASA) -





And (from Climate Central - I have read a couple of their recent reports including one on "Heat Islands" ) -



The late '70s sparked China's "discovery" of "western-style capitalism", which sent them embarking on some type of "hybrid" economic model, leading to a rapid expansion of manufacturing by permitting some "private" entities to operate (and also shipping their workers to other countries for construction). They eventually surpassed Japan in terms of GDP.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has essentially been lumbering along for decades while pointing to other countries with better infrastructure and higher tech. I.e., those going from "zero" to "cell towers" or from "mules" to "bullet trains", whereas we went through the long, arduous, and drawn-out process of putting in railways (since the 1800s), water/sewer/dam systems and highways (1900s), as well as stringing hundreds of thousands or more of electric poles and telephone poles (with old style POTS lines during the 1900s). By the 2000s, we had already started shipping much of our manufacturing overseas.

And during our "industrial revolution" to date, we sortof "leveled out" - with more population and fossil-fuel burning vehicles, but then finally implementing some mitigation (e.g., the "clean air standards" put into place in the '70s and the advent of "energy efficient" appliances and construction designs, as well as a reduction of of aerosol products including HFCs). But that was more than offset and blanked out by the shift of manufacturing to the other side of the planet, as well as the continued clear-cutting of forests to meet construction demands.

I think India's issue is different as they are not at the same level of heavy construction and manufacturing as China. However their largest (fossil-fuel using) industry is probably textiles, even with their being a pharmaceutical (generic) and IT services leader.

NNadir

(33,477 posts)
8. Oh, I certainly agree with what you say but...
Tue Oct 12, 2021, 10:53 AM
Oct 2021

...I do get annoyed when I hear of specific reference to India and China not doing this or that given general knowledge of their history as referenced in historical human development goals literature.

If we have exported our manufacturing to them we are still consuming the products of that manufacturing at an inordinate rate. Moreover, this plays a role in shipping, a major contributer to climate change, and more subtly invasive species. (This Spotted Lantern Fly of Asian origin is freaking me out. I freak when trees die.)

China and India both have enlightened nuclear energy policies by the way, superior in my view to ours.

BumRushDaShow

(128,527 posts)
9. I think we agree
Tue Oct 12, 2021, 11:56 AM
Oct 2021

we merely shifted our "problem" to another part of the world (even if we consume the end product) and as you note, by doing that, the "problem" is exasperated because that now adds a transport piece for getting those goods back here via fossil-fuel using vehicles (ships and planes).

Unfortunately as long as the human condition of "greed" is around, then there will be massive resistance to modifying manufacturing processes to limit or even neutralize the emissions due to the cost of doing so.

There was some article I remember seeing recently where someone had devised a cheap ground-based "sink" or "trap" (either some type of (generic) molecular carbon or specifically methane or CO2 - I can't remember which). If anything, getting the forests back will be an obvious (although slower) way.

And thankfully I didn't see the massive infestation of spotted lanternflies here this year like I saw last year, where they were literally crawling all over the front and back of my house as well as on my car.

I think the prolonged colder winter last year may have helped. Between them and the other invasive - the brown marmorated stink bug (another "shipping import" ), it has been a buggy nightmare the past 15 years. I do have a couple of these (with spikes) just for them -



NNadir

(33,477 posts)
10. Those nasty little buggers, spotted lantern flies, can sure jump though. There are no known...
Tue Oct 12, 2021, 09:04 PM
Oct 2021

...pheromones for these creatures as there are for the marmorated stink bug. There are, however, kairomones, one of which is apparently nothing more than methyl salicylate, which you can actually get fairly easily over the counter. ("Oil of Wintergreen" ).

I'm thinking of rigging some methyl salicylate traps, reverse tape or a commercial analogue next summer to see what I get.

You can usually kill one if you can follow the jump. My son says that they exhaust themselves with a few jumps, and that seems to be my experience.

I've downloaded a bunch of papers on the subject of kairomones, and should probably post something over in the Science forum about it, perhaps in Spring, if I remember.

It appears that this species favorite plant is the so called "Tree of Heaven," another Chinese introduced species that's causing some trouble. I've killed more than a few Trees of Heaven myself.

On another topic, I seem to recall you're a scientist. Are you a chemist, and if so, are you into mass spec? ASMS is in Philly this year, and it's being held live. I'm going. It's always a wonderful meeting. If you're going, drop me a PM and maybe we can get a cup of coffee. The mass spec companies are all buying me breakfast lunch and dinner - I oversaw an Orbitrap purchase last year - so I'm pretty booked up, but if you're around, we can grab a cup.

BumRushDaShow

(128,527 posts)
11. Yup
Wed Oct 13, 2021, 04:45 AM
Oct 2021

Ailanthus altissima is their favorite and an attractant and unfortunately, as an invasive, they are everywhere (particularly along many railroad tracks and along vegetation strips along the highways). I think once they started quarantining counties here with the initial infestations, they went about trying to find those trees and remove them.

And I have usually been able to get them after an initial jump, if I can get to where they did jump. I

I am a bit hesitant to do anything with pheromones (or similar attractants) as that seems to hearken back to what happens when something like that was used for Japanese beetles, basically putting up a huge "welcome mat" up to bring every one in the neighborhood right to your yard.

And yes, I was a chemist (now retired) and have worked in a lab that had an Ion trap MS detector at the end of a LC, although it was run by someone who was trained on operating and interpreting it (I have prepped a sample or two that would be run through it for forensic ID). One of our other labs has/had the GC-ICP-MS that I got to look at and watch in operation. Most of what I used to run were LC (UV/Vis), GC (FID), and yes, AA/AE (back in the day).

Since COVID, I have avoided going to anything - i.e., the last "group" event that I squeaked through was going to the Philly Flower Show back when the pandemic was literally just getting started in March 2020 (at the PA Convention Center) and have avoided everything else ever since, including this year's Flower show, which was held outside this past June.

Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»At least 85 percent of th...