Omicron is spreading more than twice as quickly as the Delta variant in South Africa
Source: New York Times
Underscoring growing concerns about Omicron, scientists in South Africa said on Friday that the newest coronavirus variant appears to spread more than twice as quickly as Delta, until now the fastest-moving version of the virus. Omicron’s rapid spread results from a combination of contagiousness and an ability to dodge the body’s immune defenses, the researchers said, but the contribution of each factor is not yet certain.
“We’re not sure what that mixture is,” said Carl Pearson, a mathematical modeler at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who led the analysis. “It’s possible that it might even be less transmissible than Delta.” Some of the same researchers announced on Thursday that the new variant may partly dodge immunity gained from a previous infection. It’s still unclear whether or to what degree Omicron may evade protection conferred by the current vaccines.
The new research was posted on Twitter, and has not yet been peer-reviewed nor published in a scientific journal. The Omicron variant has appeared in nearly two dozen countries. The United States has identified at least 10 cases in six states, and health officials say that community spread of the virus is inevitable. President Biden reiterated on Friday morning that his administration’s newest pandemic measures should be sufficient to deal with the spread of the new variant.
The variant was first identified in South Africa on Nov. 23 and has quickly come to account for about three-quarters of new cases in the country. The country reported 11,535 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, a 35 percent jump from the day before, and the proportion of positive test results increased to 22.4 percent from 16.5 percent. Omicron cases are doubling roughly every three days, the researchers said on Friday.
Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/03/world/omicron-variant-covid/omicron-is-spreading-more-than-twice-as-quickly-as-the-delta-variant-in-south-africa-scientists-report
Full headline: Omicron is spreading more than twice as quickly as the Delta variant in South Africa, scientists report.
Link to tweet
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@cap1024
As discussed at #EPIDEMICS8 breakout session, @saCOVID19mc have started characterizing the #SARSCoV2 variant #Omicron; working estimates for this new variant are critical so the globe can plan with the best information possible: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hA6Mec2Gq3LGqTEOj35RqSeAb_SmXpbI/view?usp=sharing
#NotYetPeerReviewed
Pearson_Epidemics8_Omicron.pdf
drive.google.com
1:44 PM · Dec 3, 2021
PDF viewer link to their paper - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hA6Mec2Gq3LGqTEOj35RqSeAb_SmXpbI/view
(not yet peer-reviewed or published)
= new reply since forum marked as read
But we'll have to see what Pfizer's data looks like because Merck had originally claimed one effectiveness and then downgraded it a few days before the FDA review, so it will be interesting to see how Pfizer's data looks once it is ready for discussion, whenever FDA schedules their review meeting for the EUA.
We are back where we were a year ago, literally the same month, in terms of numbers of cases. From today's PA COVID dashboard (last data point shown was 9,566 for Dec. 2) - https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Cases.aspx
Today they reported 10,127 -
Link to tweet
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@PAHealthDept
#COVID19 Update (as of 12/3/21 at 12:00 am):
• 10,127 additional positive cases of COVID-19
• 1,763,796 total cases statewide
• 33,746 deaths statewide
• 15,557,620 doses of vaccine administered
More information:
Coronavirus in Pennsylvania
Get the latest, up-to-date information on coronavirus from the Pennsylvania Department of Health
health.pa.gov
3:17 PM · Dec 3, 2021
Here in Philly, they report both types (PCR and antigen) but aren't including the antigen results in with the totals they tweet out. The Philly dashboard (showing the PCR / antigen break outs) is here - https://www.phila.gov/programs/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/data/testing/
Link to tweet
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@PHLPublicHealth
December 3, 2021 COVID-19 update:
579 new cases
177,775 Philadelphians diagnosed with COVID-19
4,096 Philadelphians have died from COVID-19
4.7% positivity rate
For more information: http://ow.ly/oD5Q50F9ZpR
And as a sidenote, on November 10, 2021, the city announced that they had gone back through all the data from the beginning of the pandemic and started counting "reinfections" into the total cases (positives), so our data also may have had a brief blip of a downturn and then a shoot up. That was a one time thing though.
So locales are constantly tweaking their datasets and whether all the various tracking sites are picking that up and adjusting accordingly, as well as actually what numbers they are using in their aggregates, can be a pain to nail down.
since 1976.
The 90 day graph is good because it obviously has more granularity to see any smaller trends. I have looked at the PA one periodically but have taken note that recently, based on their calc of the per capita cases for the state, they have Philly literally at the bottom of the list (lowest per 100K) of the 67 counties. The thinking is that this may be due to the mask mandate here for indoors and certain outside situations (in effect since August and the only county in the state with such). I.e., our numbers here ARE slowly increasing with this newest wave but the rate of increase so far appears to be significantly suppressed compared to this time last year, sans vaccines.
The question now that they are apparently going to be determining is whether this rapid increase in the U.S. may be going beyond the "it's winter" thing and possibly has an Omicron contribution to it (in addition to more home-testing, assuming a tracking site includes those tests in the totals).