Russia reasserts right to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine

[bluewater]

Source: The Guardian

The Kremlin again raised the spectre of the use of nuclear weapons in the war with Ukraine as Russian forces struggled to hold a key city in the south the country.

Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president who is deputy chairman of the country's security council, said Moscow could strike against an enemy that only used conventional weapons while Vladimir Putin's defence minster claimed nuclear "readiness" was a priority.

The comments on Saturday prompted Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in an appearance by video link at Qatar's Doha Forum to warn that Moscow was a direct threat to the world.
"Russia is deliberating bragging they can destroy with nuclear weapons, not only a certain country but the entire planet."

Russia has approximately 6,000 nuclear warheads - the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world. In an interview on Saturday, Medvedev said Russia's nuclear doctrine did not require an enemy state to use such weapons first.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/26/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskiy-hails-powerful-blows-by-ukrainian-army-as-russia-hints-at-scaling-back-offensive-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-623f02a38f08d422c5d5de58#block-623f02a38f08d42

---

As Putin loses even more men and equipment in his brutal invasion of Ukraine, I feel it is more and more likely that he will lash out and escalate to using tactical nuclear weapons as he falls into the "sunk cost fallacy" trap. Like a gambler on a massive losing streak, I feel Putin will keep "doubling down" and ultimately resort to the most horrific weaponry in his arsenal.

Because of the "sunk cost" fallacy, I feel confronting Putin as soon as possible with the direct over whelming military superiority of the US and NATO would actually lessen the chance of nuclear escalation and save lives in the process by halting Russia's attack on civilians and cities.

It would increase the possibility that elements inside the Russian government and military would act to remove Putin from power before Russian losses reached a point of no-return.

[AllaN01Bear]

1. so he wants to irradiate the planet , including himself eh?

[SWBTATTReg]

2. This assertion is (to use such weapons) a war crime by itself. My fear is not that Russia wouldn't

hesitate in using such weapons (they would), but in what shape are these weapons in? Look at their entire military operations, from A to Z, malfunctioning equipment, poorly training troops, poor doctrine, poor leadership, etc. I expect that the corruption, etc. extended even to the most sacred of Russian weapons.

[FarPoint]

16. Exactly.....

One has to assess this situation....Knowing the military has been poorly maintained bring up the question regarding the nuclear weapons may of also been ....poorly financed as well...So, do they work?

[PortTack]

24. Yes, watched an army intelligence person saying those war heads have a life span

Who knows if they would hit their target, or even launch

[dixiegrrrrl]

52. With any luck they will just explode on site

From everything we have seen, all the military equipment is old, not well maintained.
there's been a lot of talk of mis-appropriation of funds over the years. which is not at all unbelievable.

[wnylib]

57. I have thought the same thing.

But, what if the reason that the Russian ground forces are so bad is because all military spending was focused on nukes?

[former9thward]

20. This is a issue with all nuclear weapons including the U.S..

Not the corruption angle but its non use. When I was in the Air Force I was part of an audit of our nuclear silos in the Dakotas. We found around 40% of the missiles were inoperable due to corrosion. When you don't use something you have this issue among several others.

[SWBTATTReg]

21. Makes sense, what you say. NT

[LiberalArkie]

31. The tritium has to be replaced about every 10 years in the warhead. Now that is just them bomb

is the fuel in the rockets and good?

[AntiFascist]

32. Minuteman missiles are tested every so often at Vandenberg. Probably makes it a target though...

[AntiFascist]

26. Russia was testing new nukes during TFG's administration...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2022/03/08/fact-check-russias-satan-2-nuclear-missile-unveiled-2016/6983354001/

Fact check: Russian 'Satan 2' nuclear missile first unveiled in 2016

"BreakingNews; Russia unveil (sic) a nuclear weapon called 'Satan 2 liquid fueled nuclear missile' capable of destroying everything breathing in the world should in case USA, NATO and Western world interferes," reads the caption of a Feb. 25 Facebook post.

...

In 2017, Russia conducted its first silo ejection test of the missile, which is meant to "test the mechanism of a missile leaving its launch container," according to The Diplomat. Two tests followed in 2018, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The "Satan 2" missile will "enter combat duty in late 2022," according to TASS, a Russian state-owned news agency. USA TODAY did not find any news reports that indicate the missile was in use as of March 7.

[wnylib]

58. Two thoughts about that Facebook post

First, English is not the first language of the person who wrote the post.

Second, Facebook is not the most reliable source of information on any topic, let alone the nuclear capabilities of a nation.

[AntiFascist]

60. I understand...

the point I wanted to make was that (under the fact check section of the article) Russia had been conducting tests of the missile, including "silo ejection".

[wnylib]

61. OK.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

39. Hell, even back in the mid 90"s when we trained with them,

they sucked and their equipment was shit due to poor or nonexistent maintenance.

I guess not much has changed since then.

[Boydog]

3. Fine. I guess they want to be obliterated from the face of the earth.

We can handle that.

[Polybius]

14. We can, but we could get obliterated too

Can't shoot down 1,000's of nukes.

[Boydog]

23. Doubt they could stop us from employing the "football."

[paleotn]

46. No could to it. We would be obliterated.

We would all be obliterated.

[turbinetree]

4. What a pr**k......small p***s man ......he really does have issues....

[EarthFirst]

6. Fortunately this isn't a unilateral decision making process...

…and I’m fairly confident that he doesn’t have the support of the entire chain of command required to execute this decision.

[bluewater]

7. I agree, I was still editing the Op as you posted, I type slowly.

The sooner Putin is confronted with the over whelming military power of the US and NATO, the sooner other elements inside Russia will make him back down or, failing that, remove him from power.

[colorado_ufo]

34. In a prior post, I said that to end this conflict Putin only needs

to be presented with a demand that the army begin to leave immediately or NATO will give emergency admission to Ukraine.

[Harker]

9. A launch code sent to a submarine reduces the relevant chain of command

to a pretty small number of people.

[former9thward]

10. Correct.

And it not just subs. Nuclear launches are a very tiny group of people. Many posters seem to be getting their information from movies.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

18. yep

Launch orders don't get filtered down through a long chain of command. At most there are 1 or 2 people between Putin and the key turners. And I wouldn't bet on the key turner's not following launch orders. They are chosen and trained to carry out those orders without second guessing it.

[EarthFirst]

19. You are correct that it's in the hands of a small group of people...

Last edited Sat Mar 26, 2022, 03:21 PM - Edit history (1)

In fact; I believe it’s Putin, Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu who have the necessary Cheget authorization to issue a launch code.

Shoigu looked particularly concerned at a press conference on 2/27 when Putin ordered strategic weapon preparedness; so my faith that this may be averted is solely based on a personal assessment of that single event.

What may be of particular concern is Shoigu’s absence in recent week(s).

The balance of society/humanity depends on a breakdown in this particular scenario; so I will remain optimistic that such a scenario will not develop.

[Harker]

33. Then there's the sub in "On the Beach"...

[Harker]

44. I'm overdue for my second viewing.

That's an emotional powerhouse.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

42. There's also the movie,

Crimson Tide.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0112740/mediaviewer/rm4291234560/

[Harker]

43. That was a hair raiser. n/t

[MarineCombatEngineer]

40. Pretty sure that each Russian boomer at sea is shadowed

by an US/NATO Hunter/Killer sub which are under orders to sink it at the first sign of preparations for a launch.

[AntiFascist]

30. Yes, and after watching Ali Velshi yesterday...

Last edited Sat Mar 26, 2022, 03:55 PM - Edit history (1)

it looks like the FSB (Russian Intel) is compromised. Probably explaining why our Intel has been so good.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

41. And if the security of the nukes is anything like it was in the old Soviet Union,

then it was a special unit of the KGB who controlled the warheads, while the actual missiles are controlled by the Strategic Rocket Forces, so I would think that the same system is in place, where a special unit of the FSB would have control over the warheads and maybe there is dissention within those ranks also who might not release the codes unless Russia itself was under nuclear attack.

Just a thought to mull on.

[appmanga]

11. Should this happen...

...NATO would have no choice except to retaliate by running Russia out of every crack and corner of Ukraine, including Crimea. There should be more sanctions, but that would not be enough. NATO needs to make clear the use of nukes in Europe will trigger military intervention. Putin's bluff must be called.

[Bayard]

12. I've seen this movie

It doesn't end well for anyone.

[GB_RN]

22. Didn't Putin Play Dr. Strangelove?

N/T

[dalton99a]

13. Russia should be officially designated a nuclear terrorist state.

[Fiendish Thingy]

25. The Russians should be scared of *our* nukes, not the other way around.

Because of the "sunk cost" fallacy, I feel confronting Putin as soon as possible with the direct over whelming military superiority of the US and NATO would actually lessen the chance of nuclear escalation and save lives in the process by halting Russia's attack on civilians and cities.

You are absolutely correct. The west's current fear of Putin using nukes will not suddenly disappear if he invades a NATO country.

[IronLionZion]

27. We're assuming their nukes are in good shape when they may not be

considering the poor condition of their conventional military, their nukes might be in bad shape and less of a threat than they would have us believe.

So far only one country had ever used nukes in war to kill a lot of people. And that's the US.

[Shipwack]

38. Interesting point, but...

Maybe his nukes lack proper maintenance like the rest of his armed forces. Or maybe they make sure they get proper maintenance because they are more "glamorous" than a "mere" supply truck. If that is true, he's learning that that was a bad trade off...

[Crowman2009]

54. Last year I saw a picture in the Air & Space Smithsonian magazine of the Russian Air Force's...

...aviation weapons support equipment (or as we say in my USMC aviation ordnance days, AWSE gear). Let's just say if my unit's AWSE gear was in any shape like their's then we can kiss our 96 or 72 priveleges goodbye, demotions would be made, and there would be a squadron wide ass chewing from the squadron SgtMaj.

[NEOBuckeye]

28. Fuck Putin

He needs to be taken out and his regime crushed at all costs.

The world cannot continue to suffer this man.

[Turbineguy]

29. It's a weapon for somebody

with nothing left to lose.

Medvedev is in the inner circle of mega-theft.

[Dustlawyer]

47. This is a dangerous game.

I believe NATO and other world leaders need to draw a line at the use of any nukes. If Russia uses even one of them everyone else immediately is in the war against Russia, plus Putin will be executed. I would include a large bounty on Putin’s head to be paid out of his fortune.

[AntiFascist]

51. Here's one of the main nuclear threats...

INF nuclear treaty: US pulls out of Cold War-era pact with Russia
Published2 August 2019

The Americans said they had evidence that Russia had deployed a number of 9M729 missiles - known to Nato as SSC-8. This accusation was then put to Washington's Nato allies, which all backed the US claim.
...
Last month, he told the BBC that the Russian missiles were nuclear-capable, mobile, very hard to detect and could reach European cities within minutes.
...
"Allies have concluded that Russia has developed and fielded a missile system, the 9M729, which violates the INF Treaty and poses significant risks to Euro-Atlantic security," a statement from Nato foreign ministers read.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49198565

[bluewater]

55. Advances like this would seem to make use of nuclear weapons inevitable.

Any country with small yield tactical nuclear weapons would resort to them if they were on the losing end of a conventional war, the possibility of escalation to a full blown nuclear exchange notwithstanding.

Human nature being what it is.

Please note, I am talking about losing a war, not a skirmish or incident.

[AntiFascist]

62. One horrific possibility I have thought of...

Unless Putin is stopped now, he may attempt to gauge how much genocide he can get away with, slowly ratcheting it up to more and more civilians being killed at a time through bombings and missile strikes. At some point he may deploy a limited tactical nuke in an effort to "stop" the war, citing the way WW2 suddenly came to a halt.

[bluewater]

64. That's an insightful and terrifying thought.

[Joinfortmill]

48. Russian military needs to stop him.

[bluewater]

49. Someone should, and quickly.

[Gordcanuck]

50. It just takes 1 hypersonic

missile to get hacked while en route to a Ukrainian hospital to be turned around to Moscow by Anonymous, range ; 1,200 km, co-ordinates used by its guidance system known, evasive power quite good at that speed and blammo! 🇺🇦
Yes a challenge to the best minds in the business, but I have confidence it can be done.

[Martin68]

53. Pardon my belligerence, but I think it is time we stand up to Putin's nuclear blackmail. Tell

him that if Russia employs a single nuclear device, tactical or strategic, anywhere in the world, Moscow is toast. Nuclear weapons are only meaningful if we are willing to use them, insane as that sounds. If Putin is betting on the idea that the West is afraid to respond to a nuclear attack, we must let him know that if he does that, he will lose everything. The only thing worse than a nuclear war is the authoritarian re-enslavement of Eastern Europe by Russia. That cannot be allowed to happen.

[Eyeball_Kid]

56. It's probably been said before,

but UKR and Russia are subjected to the prevailing westerlies all year long. So it's likely that a bomb's radioactive shadow will spread throughout... Russia. I'm not sure that even a limited nuclear attack wouldn't contaminate a good chunk of Russia. A meteorologist may know about wind currents and other factors.

[AnnetteChaffee]

59. I wrote this in 2017

It seems timely to post it again.
***
2017- The Year of the Shadow

It used to be that we presented our light and hid our shadow side, however 45 has empowered those who live in hate and fear. We now are faced with meeting people and immediately seeing who they are at their core, their "shadow side" or their "light side". Lately, the shadow side seems to be rising. There are people who I worked with for many years and who really were reasonable people. I see them now on social media, fully "out and proud" to be a Nazi, or a white supremacist, bigot, racist, and/or masochist. They called themselves "Independent", which to me is like calling yourself bisexual - you may identify with both sides, but in your heart of hearts, when its time to embrace your fantasy, it is one side that rings your bell (so to speak) - that is who you really are, and when its time to vote - most independents tend to vote republican (when given a choice of D or R). I always felt that most "Independents" were really republicans who could not bring themselves to publicly embrace the negative principles that the republican party is based on, stating the infamous "both sides, blah blah blah" - another thing that to me is completely ethically and factually fraudulent. The United States we live in now, unfortunately, has very little middle ground.

Those "independents" - and let me clarify that I am not saying that this applies to everyone, but it does apply to a majority of them) and the republicans, have finally found their leader, someone who has given them permission to live in the shadow side of their true selves and show it publicly - no longer do they need to hide behind a computer monitor. They are encouraged to be bigots, to fantasize out loud the harm that they would love to see inflicted on those who they JUDGE to be inferior or different. The leaders of churches can now live in their shadows!!! This gives an extra level of permission for the hypocrites and bigots to embrace their shadows cloaked in "Christianity" - they are being told that the representative of their higher power said it was okay!! They are even bringing voting machines into churches and being told to vote their shadow's will from the pulpit.

The good news is that things are escalating very quickly. By embracing their shadows, everyone can now see their true selves. They no longer have to hide, and so we now know who they are, what they are and where they are. It is our responsibility as those who choose to show our light, to find a way to block the darkness from altering our lives in ways that will damage our lives for generations to come. The republicans and especially the rich republicans, know how to manipulate the public, the media, the law and the politicians and they have planned this takeover very carefully with the help of our enemies/their friends. They are stumbling now because they didn't expect their opportunity to present itself so quickly and as everyone knows, republicans are not very good at governing, coming up with good ideas, or compromising. Shadows block; they don't light the path, shadows block the path. They also didn't anticipate that their opportunity would come with a president that they could not control, and a woken up population of people who are identifying the shadow workers and standing up against the harm they are trying to inflict by shining their light on them.

I'm sorry this is so long - I've suffered emotionally since November, I feel like every day is some kind of horrific dream that I cannot wake up from. i'm heartened by the fact that time is moving quickly and whether circumstances will save us from the destruction that the shadows have planned for us, or whether it happens and we are destroyed by their hands -through war, another great depression, or climate change disasters, it appears that it is going to happen sooner rather than later.

The sooner it happens, the sooner we can begin to rebuild. We better be ready and that means that Democratic leaders and future US and world leaders need to be putting together a plan that we can support so that we can move forward and rebuild the dream that we were so close to achieving. We will also need to consider that once the light wins (and it will), we have to find a way to bring a little light out of the shadows. Nobody can live in this kind of negativity and not be affected by it. Things need to be healed, people need to be healed, and we need to try to become a strong and united states again.

I only hope its not too late. Nothing says Forever, Shadow, like a nuclear bomb.

Namaste,
a

[I_UndergroundPanther]

65. I feel the same way Annette Chaffee

Dark triad personalities have become so numerous they are a threat to democracy.
If a good chunk of them die off, by whatever will wipe them out
(I personally wish all of them to be wiped of the planet)
those who don't have dark triad personalities can heal and rebuild things.

But as long as dark triad personalities (shadows)s are this numerous have power
and the oligarchs(shadows) and their networks(more shadows) are powerful and dark triad
oligarchs are not eliminated(huge shadows) the future can become very dark very fast.


I have been called hateful for saying this sort of thing too. Because I don't use the light/dark language.
I use sociopath,narcissist,Authoritarian personality types (there is no cure to stop these kinds of people)
vs.people who care,have empathy,want to help...the Not dark triad personality types.

Dark triads see people that care for one another as their enemies.
Because for the good of all the not dark triad people
limit the atrocities dark triads live for and love to do to people.
They might not articulate it like that,but that's what's going on.

[pbmus]

63. I was called a warmonger for saying this same thought 3 weeks ago...

Last edited Mon Mar 28, 2022, 12:21 AM - Edit history (1)

‘Because of the "sunk cost" fallacy, I feel confronting Putin as soon as possible with the direct over whelming military superiority of the US and NATO would actually lessen the chance of nuclear escalation and save lives in the process by halting Russia's attack on civilians and cities.

It would increase the possibility that elements inside the Russian government and military would act to remove Putin from power before Russian losses reached a point of no-return. ‘

[LiberalFighter]

66. They what?