Bank of England warns of 'apocalyptic' global food shortage

[swag]

Source: The Telegraph

By Tim Wallace
16 May 2022 • 11:15pm

The Governor of the Bank of England has warned of “apocalyptic” global food price rises and said he is "helpless" in the face of surging inflation as the economy is battered by the war in Ukraine.

Andrew Bailey said he has “run out of horsemen” when counting the shocks facing Britain, with runaway energy and food costs driven by global market forces beyond his control.

Prices are rising at the fastest rate in 30 years, creating a "very big income shock" that is expected to intensify in coming months with a risk of double-digit inflation before the end of the year.

Mr Bailey told MPs on the Treasury Select Committee that he is increasingly concerned about a further surge in food costs if Ukraine, a major crop grower, is unable to ship wheat and cooking oils from its warehouses because of a Russian blockade.



Read more: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/16/bank-england-warns-apocalyptic-global-food-shortage/

[peppertree]

1. Commodity speculators

They are every bit as guilty in this as Vlad the Invader (who no doubt has been cashing in himself).

[roamer65]

2. The winds of war are blowing.

Fuel and food rationing are coming soon, just like 1942-1945.

[milestogo]

3. Is the problem a global food shortage or high prices?

[roamer65]

4. India shut off wheat exports the other day.

Drought.

[milestogo]

5. The heat there has been intolerable.

[speak easy]

7. The heart there has been intolerable

India banned COVID vaccine exports as soon as they had a significant outbreak.

[Hekate]

41. As I remarked to hubby the other day: I get it. What if the Irish had kept all the food they grew...

… when the potato crop failed? Instead of their absentee landlords shipping it out the way they’d always done?

So I get it. India is going to try to feed their own people first, and I can’t blame them.

[Hekate]

40. The wheat exports of Ukraine are far more important to the globe than I ever realized...

Los Angeles Times, May 11, 2022 page A1 continuing on page A4

Apologies — for whatever reason, my “copy” function refuses to work today.

Ukraine feeds the world, just about, and right now their farmers are trying to sow wheat and dodge incoming missiles. In addition to the Russians blocking the port of Odessa, the Ukrainians are mining the harbor to keep the Russians out. Putin really, really wants that port.

Bottom line, the shortage is about to get exquisitely real.

https://enewspaper.latimes.com/infinity/latimes/default.aspx?pubid=50435180-e58e-48b5-8e0c-236bf740270e&edid=b769f8c6-a143-4fc8-ab54-2287ab94f2c3&pnum=1

https://enewspaper.latimes.com/infinity/latimes/default.aspx?pubid=50435180-e58e-48b5-8e0c-236bf740270e&edid=b769f8c6-a143-4fc8-ab54-2287ab94f2c3&pnum=4

[roamer65]

48. Plus the RuZZians have stolen about 500,000 tons of Ukrainian grain.

The Middle East and Africa are going to feel the effects first.

Lebanon especially.

[Vogon_Glory]

57. I think it's actually the Ukrainian AND the Russian grain harvests

The Russian grain harvests vastly improved after Soviet-style agricultural policies were discarded, and not only were the Ukrainians exporting large grain surpluses, but so were the Russians.

I fear we’re in for hungry times for the next couple of years, no thanks to Vladimir Putin.

[Jose Garcia]

45. Yes

[Warpy]

6. It might help if w stopped feeding things people can eat to pigs and cows

Meat heavy diets are killing people. We'd be a lot better off if we cut down the meat intake for a few years until Putin's war is over, the pandemic is something we can live with, and India has a decent harvest, which they're unlikely to this year.

The result if we don't is unthinkable.

[cstanleytech]

13. That's not the real problem which is that there are simply to many humans and eventually

nature will bring our population into check if we refuse to do so ourselves.

[rubbersole]

17. Sad but true...

We can't/won't/haven't addressed this in any meaningful way. Our grandchildren will suffer the consequences. Hope they don't hate us too much for destroying the planet.

[Auggie]

29. +7,947,605,000

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

[CrispyQ]

35. Six billion miracles is enough.

I bought that bumper sticker back around the turn of the century.

[Warpy]

38. Countries that have a lower birth rate have their own problems

China, South Korea and Japan are finding themselves with bumper crops of frail elderly and too few people to look after them.

Europe and North America would be facing the same problem, but we've allowed immigration from parts of the world with overabundant populations. This drives right wing bigots around the bend because they only see skin color, nothing else. They are incapable of realizing just how essential these people are to keeping this country running.

There is going to be starvation in many of these countries and they will quite rightly blame us for it. Oh, there will be plenty of blame to go around, Putin will be in for his fair share, too. However, we do have the surplus we could export to them if we weren't feeding it to cows and pigs, instead.

I don't iknow what the fallout will be, I'm just glad I won't be here to see most of it. There are occasional advantages to age.

[C Moon]

16. So true. The amount of water used on a pound of beef, is a lot less than a pound of soybeans.

[mahina]

18. Hmm that's surprising. Are you sure?

I thought the opposite was true.

[C Moon]

19. Look into it. You'll be surprised. I doubt you'll bother.

This is just one link, but I hope you have looked it up yourself. But I’m guessing you didn’t bother.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/foodtank.com/news/2013/12/why-meat-eats-resources/amp/

[mahina]

21. Charmed!

I was inquiring, open minded, still am, but wow you are a delight. Bye now.

[marybourg]

23. Not only did you misstate the fact, but

you inappropriately personally attacked a poster for mildly questioning your misstated fact.

[IbogaProject]

36. That link says Beef takes much more

Hi, that link you posted says Beef takes 1,800 gallons of water per pound produced. Soybeans take 206 gallons per pound produced.

[Turbineguy]

65. From the article:

"Shock is reasonable after discovering that the global average water footprint – or the total amount of water needed – to produce one pound of beef is 1,800 gallons of water; one pound of pork takes 718 gallons of water. As a comparison, the water footprint of soybeans is 206 gallons; corn is 108 gallons."

[muriel_volestrangler]

20. I think you mean "more", not "less"

Your link in the later post certainly says more - 1800 to 206.

[jimfields33]

26. I know one item that we need to stop yesterday is avocados

They take up water like crazy. If we just limit our numbers avocado intake, we’d all be closer to fixing the problems.

[Hekate]

43. Well, that's easy

[jimfields33]

44. I know people love them

And it’s never easy to sacrifice but it does help matters.

[melm00se]

32. This was the challenge that Britain

faced during WWII.

Britain was a net importer of food and the NAZI blockade choked food supplies.

The British government ordered a culling of livestock only leaving milk producing animals and highly efficient animals and shifting over to a diet more focused on plants than meat (but there was some meat production for the armed forces and rationed meat for the general public).

There were significant impacts to this:

- the British farmland (both existing and reclaimed) was rapidly depleted of soil nutrients as the war entered 1943 and the growth of farm yields slowed dramatically only offset by the increase in cultivated land and the tide turning in the Atlantic.

- there were several pig breeds that were completely wiped out during the cull.

- many British culled their pets due to forecasted food shortages and a pamphlet from National Air Raid Precautions Animals Committee who suggesting putting down pets would be the most humane thing to do.

[Hekate]

42. Meat heavy diets are killing people who have an overabundance of food. People with no food...

…not so much. We are about to see famines again — some caused by war, and some caused by global climate change.

[Warpy]

46. The green revolution was nice while it lasted, eh?

The Great Plains are about to start becoming unsuitable for agriculture now that the Ogallal Aquifer is running very low.

If we're smart, we'll replant native grasses to anchor the soil. If we're stupid, it will become desert.

[roamer65]

49. The Great Lakes region is going to become the breadbasket of the North American continent.

Also southern Ontario and further north of it.

[Warpy]

50. I think you are right about that

Weather patterns will still bring them rainfall from the Gulf. Anything west will do for animal herds but those huge corporate farms have seen their glory days come and go.

[roamer65]

51. Would be nice to see the bison roam again.

Northern part of the Great Plains will probably stay agriculturally inclined, but the mid to southern part I highly doubt it.

Grazing land at best as you say.

[Warpy]

52. At first it will likely be cows and sheep

Plus whatever comes out of the mountains for summer grazing. Bison will eventually run 'em off Bison are mean fuckers.

Here is an example of how close you can get: https://www.flickr.com/photos/yellowstonenps/49945321238/in/photostream/ Notice thedifference in posture in the bison distancing picture.

[roamer65]

53. Beefalo?

Wouldn’t surprise if they crossbreed.

[NH Ethylene]

60. They're different species. By definition, they can't interbreed

and produce fertile offspring.

[Warpy]

62. They can with difficulty

but offspring will all be sterile. See below.

[NH Ethylene]

63. I stand corrected!

That's really interesting.

[Warpy]

61. Uhhhhhh.....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beefalo

What you get is a mean as hell head of cattle with tough, low fat meat and can't make more cattle. Enough cross breeding would make both species extinct, and that's why it has to be done with a lot of help from humans.

[littlemissmartypants]

8. Global warming effects that may have taken a couple of decades are now

Going to be accelerated by world events. "Good training." as a friend of mine used to say.

[Baked Potato]

9. Dear worldwide farmers, please plant some frickin' wheat.

Oh, and big corporations, how about helping out with this “apocalypse” thing coming.

🤔

JHC.

[DanieRains]

11. Just Like The Saudis Are Helping....

Good Luck.

[cstanleytech]

14. There are only a finite number of places where you can plant and harvest wheat so really what is

needed is for there to be more diversification in the types of food we grow dependent on the region your looking to grow in.
Just to bad we cannot plant and grow crops (other than kelp) in the ocean as that is a rather large area of the planet that is rather useless when it comes to planting and harvesting crops for the most part.

[raccoon]

27. Well, how about rice? Nt

[NickB79]

30. Rising sea levels are flooding a lot of rice country with salt water

And inland areas are struggling to find enough water to irrigate with.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/rice-agriculture-feeds-world-climate-change-drought-flood-risk

[cstanleytech]

39. Not much difference than growing wheat as both take land and water.

[Deuxcents]

10. We've known about climate challenges for decades..

Now we’re gonna know what our leaders refused to even consider. Water issues Droughts. Heat. More extreme tornadoes n hurricanes. More fires consuming everything in its path. Wildlife n marine life won’t be able to sustain us. It’s joust becoming gloom n doom and it ain’t pretty or cheap.

[DanieRains]

12. Drill Baby Drill!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Screw the kiddies over.

They get to pay for our carbon.

[cstanleytech]

15. Hurricanes? Yes as they thrive with higher ocean temperatures. Tornadoes? Probably not as those

need rain and drought tends to reduce the chance of those occurring.

[Lonestarblue]

22. Russia has Black Sea ports blocked to prevent Ukraine from shipping wheat.

The UN should declare a humanitarian crisis and put together a force to protect Ukrainian grain ships. Either Russia lets them through or Russian ships get sunk. Putin needs to be stopped instead of letting this war drag on and on. The world could end up in another sever depression.

If it’s true that Putin has cancer, he could decide that he has nothing to lose by pulling out the nukes, but his generals and other leaders might refuse to use them since they know the retaliation would be swift. Would they really be ready to die for a delusional man who might not be around much longer? Tough question to answer. I sure don’t envy world leaders today who have to deal with Putin’s threats.

[dalton99a]

37. +1

[bucolic_frolic]

24. What? They can't grow crops on McMansion Farms?

Materialistic people made their spending choices. This was baked in the pie years ago.

[hueymahl]

28. People with McMansions won't starve

They might have to eat steak less often, but that is it.

[NickB79]

31. Don't think catastrophic climate change is a Third-World problem

I'm 42. I'm 100% certain we'll see food rationing, millions of American climate refugees, and widespread hunger in the US directly due to climate change in my lifetime. Climate change isn't going to stop in this century. Large swathes of the US will be uninhabitable within 50 years due to heat, drought, sea level rise and wildfires.

Someone with a McMansion in Arizona that suddenly finds their water supply is gone, or in Florida and their living room flooding at high tide, and their house now unsaleable and worthless, could easily go from middle class to destitute in a matter of years. Just look back to the Great Depression to see how fast people's fortunes changed.

[FakeNoose]

59. That's a good point - there will be climate refugees relocating within the US

For the last 70 or 80 years, northerners have retired and moved to the South where it's warmer, sunnier, and tax-free. Very soon that's all going to change. The migrations will return northward, even up into Canada for livable temperatures and reliable rainfalls. Those that haven't already moved will soon find that they can't sell their Southern retirement properties for any price, let alone a "ka-ching! rake-it-in" price. When they do move north they will find that jobs are scarce and affordable property will be even more scarce.

I know that I probably won't live to see it because I'm already 71. BUT I worry for my son and my grandson who will certainly have to deal with this. It's going to get ugly and scary.

[David__77]

25. Well, destabilization causes instability.

…

[RicROC]

33. For maximum efficiency, encourage households to plant "Square Foot' gardens.

Last edited Tue May 17, 2022, 10:59 PM - Edit history (1)

https://squarefootgardening.org

[roamer65]

56. Victory gardens!

[TexasBushwhacker]

64. Put a space after the "g" at the end of your link

The period immediately after it is messing with it.

[ck4829]

34. Kick

[AwakeAtLast]

47. It's Biden's fault!!!!!!!

They'll find a way to pin it on him somehow, I'm sure. They've done a fine job of blaming him for the inflation here in the USA.

[Vogon_Glory]

58. Of course the wing-nuts and conservative reactionaries will blame Biden

Most conservative voters these days know less about business and economics than egg factory chickens.

[melm00se]

54. The next agricultural revolution will be

vertical in nature.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/06/business/vertical-farms-food.html
is a recent article on this topic

[roamer65]

55. 51 deg C in Pakistan.

Cretaceous here we come!

[cagefreesoylentgreen]

66. Permian-Triassic

[Akoto]

67. Large scale hydroponics and aquaponics may be an answer for wheat/soy.

Hey, cyberpunk novels always said the Earth of the future would be living on foods made out of soy, whether it tasted like it or not. Agroponics and aquaponics are interesting to consider, though. Some of the components for growth can be recycled for later crops, even. The nutrient sources are very sustainable.

Right now, living without meat is still NOT cheap. I see people advocating that above. It may help them reduce their bills, but those bills will still be big. I don't eat any meat now, not even chicken. Stocking my shelves with boxes of rice Chex, some fruit and other stuff, takes all of my food stamp funds (I am physically disabled) plus cash from my monthly stipend. It's tough.

If people just dropped meat right now, it would make no difference. It needs to be a gradual shift to a balance, I think. New growers of produce have to get started, or else everyone suddenly flooding the aisles for non-meat foods would make those just as costly due to shortages.