Hurricane Ian nears Cuba on path to strike Florida as Cat 4
Last edited Mon Sep 26, 2022, 11:35 AM - Edit history (5)
Source: AP
HAVANA (AP) — Hurricane Ian was growing stronger as it approached the western tip of Cuba on Monday, on a track to hit the west coast of Florida as a major hurricane as early as Wednesday. Ian was forecast to hit Cuba as a major hurricane and then become an even stronger Category 4 with top winds of 140 miles (225 kilometers) over warm Gulf of Mexico waters before striking Florida along a stretch of coast including the Tampa Bay area.
“Please treat this storm seriously. It’s the real deal. This is not a drill,” Hillsborough County Emergency Management Director Timothy Dudley said at a Monday news conference on storm preparations in Tampa. Authorities in Cuba suspended classes in Pinar del Rio province and planned evacuations Monday as Ian gained strength on approach to Grand Cayman and the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Cuba also was shutting down its train system ahead of the worst weather.
“Cuba is expecting extreme hurricane force winds, also life threatening storm surge and heavy rainfall,” U.S. National Hurricane Center senior specialist Daniel Brown told The Associated Press early Monday. At 11 a.m. EDT on Monday, Ian was moving northwest at 13 mph (20 kph), about 240 miles (385 kilometers) southeast of the western tip of Cuba, with top sustained winds increasing to 80 mph (130 kph).
As the hurricane approached the Cayman Islands, members of the government and opposition were working together “to ensure that our people are made as safe as possible -- the supplies, plywood, in some cases sandbags, are distributed so that they can safely weather this storm,” Premier Wayne Panton said in a video posted Sunday. “We must prepare for the worst and absolutely pray and hope for the best.”
Read more: https://apnews.com/article/storms-hurricanes-florida-cuba-evacuations-5ca1bc4f27ff637e94f0d6cfd906755e
And the GOM is bathwater. Depending on how much of Cuba the eye travels across will determine how much it gets disrupted before recovering and doing its final run to the SE U.S.
11 am EDT 5-day cone update -
8 am EDT 5-day cone update -
GOES-EAST (8:15 am EDT) -
Article updated. Last version an/ord headline -
Authorities in Cuba suspended classes in Pinar del Rio province and planned evacuations Monday as Ian gained strength on approach to Grand Cayman and the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Cuba also was shutting down its train system ahead of the worst weather.
"Cuba is expecting extreme hurricane force winds, also life threatening storm surge and heavy rainfall," U.S. National Hurricane Center senior specialist Daniel Brown told The Associated Press early Monday. At 8 a.m. EDT on Monday, Ian was moving northwest at 14 mph (22 kph), about 90 miles (145 kilometers) west-southwest of Grand Cayman, sustaining top winds of 75 mph (120 kph).
In the Cayman Islands, members of the government and opposition were working together "to ensure that our people are made as safe as possible -- the supplies, plywood, in some cases sandbags, are distributed so that they can safely weather this storm," Premier Wayne Panton said in a video posted Sunday. "We must prepare for the worst and absolutely pray and hope for the best."
HAVANA (AP) -- Hurricane Ian moved near the Cayman Islands and closer to western Cuba early Monday on a track to hit Florida as a major hurricane this week. Ian was forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major hurricane as soon as late Monday before becoming an even stronger Category 4 hurricane over warm Gulf of Mexico waters before striking the west central coast of Florida on Wednesday.
Authorities in Cuba suspended classes in Pinar del Rio province and planned evacuations Monday as Ian gained strength on approach to Grand Cayman and the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. "Cuba is expecting extreme hurricane force winds, also life threatening storm surge and heavy rainfall," U.S. National Hurricane Center senior specialist Daniel Brown told The Associated Press early Monday.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ian should reach far-western Cuba late Monday or early Tuesday, hitting near the country's most famed tobacco fields. Cuba state media outlet Granma said authorities would begin evacuating people from vulnerable areas early Monday in Pinar del Rio. Classes there have been suspended. At 8 a.m. EDT on Monday, Ian was moving northwest at 14 mph (22 kph), about 90 miles (145 kilometers) west-southwest of Grand Cayman, according to the center. It had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph).
"Ian is not expected to spend much time over western Cuba, and additional strengthening is likely over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday," the hurricane center said. "Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts along the west coast of Florida." Florida residents were getting ready, lining up for hours in Tampa to collect bags of sand and clearing store shelves of bottled water.
Original article -
Authorities in Cuba suspended classes in Pinar del Rio province and said they will begin evacuations Monday as Ian was forecast to strengthen before reaching the western part of the island on its way to Florida.
A hurricane warning was in effect for Grand Cayman and the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ian should reach the far-western part of Cuba late Monday or early Tuesday, hitting near the country's most famed tobacco fields. It could become a major hurricane before a likely landfall in Florida around the middle of the week, possibly the state's western coast or Panhandle
Cuba state media outlet Granma said authorities would begin evacuating people from vulnerable areas early Monday in the far-western province of Pinar del Rio. Classes there have been suspended. At 5 a.m. EDT on Monday, Ian was moving northwest at 13 mph (20 kph), about 90 miles (150 kilometers) southwest of Grand Cayman, according to the center. It had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph).
= new reply since forum marked as read
She has accumulated a lot of stained-glass materials and equipment over the years. Would be a painfully sharp and colorful mess to clean up.
in sunny Florida 
be aware that the back end of it will be throwing wind/rain over your area and what might exacerbate all of this is that we are in a New Moon so the tides are already running higher than normal. 
Thanks to my experience in land surveying I made sure my home's floor elevation was more than 20' above mean sea level. Drainage is no problem either, the creek in my back yard drains directly into the St Johns river, tidal at that point.
Wind is the enemy. Flying debris its weapons. There is also the inevitable power outage but with a few empty milk cartons filled with water, frozen in and blankets on the freezer, all should last for long enough. and
for good luck!
And having a creek to drain away water is helpful. One of my sisters has a creek at the bottom of the slope of her backyard that was naturally formed by an old earthquake fault and water drains into it and eventually exits into a nearby watershed. She is in a hilly area and near the bottom of one of the hills (but has just a bit of additional downslope before an adjacent hill ascends). She has sent me a pic from one time during the almost 20 years she has lived there, when the creek actually went out of its banks, which is rare but at least it was doing its job. The unfortunate issue was that the township had run the electric lines on poles right along that creek which were "hidden" by the trees that were planted when the houses were first built so.... you can imagine.
Crossing fingers for you guys!
to drain away any excess rain. 
waterspout distraction!
and then having the winds pushing that water around in a destructive way (let alone any excessive rain to add to that).
I only found out last year during Ida, where one portion of one of our smaller rivers that cuts through the city (Schuylkill in Philly) actually has a tidal lower portion that eventually leads into the Delaware River that itself feeds into the Delaware Bay. The upper portion has no such tidal variation so it was fascinating to look at the USGS gauge readings for it and see the ups and downs corresponding to the tides right downtown!
Unfortunately last year around this time, a couple big pumps failed along the below grade expressway that goes river to river across the city as the remnants of Ida passed over us, and instead of the "Vine St. Expressway" we ended up with the "Vine St. Canal". 
although it has come more in agreement with the EC.
I think folks might recall the last time there was some dramatic blowout tides and then later surge in Tampa Bay with Irma, which was wild!
If they get the right-front quadrant... ugh.
The steering generated by the way the trough sitting over my area in Philly amplifies (or not) is gonna help determine how it moves (along with the high to the west).
The runs today will have full sets of data from the NOAA GIV high altitude missions sampling the atmosphere around 40k ft out ahead of the storm. NWS offices from Fl all the way to NY are Now doing weather balloon releases twice a day so the models can get more data on that trough inputted.
And a few newer instruments are being used, bathyspheres dropped from the planes to measure ocean temperatur down to as far as a 1k ft which gives the models how much fuel is really down there. And also sea air drones. NOAA will be sending small drone boats with instruments directly into the eye to measure wave height, sea temp and overall interaction at the water atmosphere interface which is still poorly understood. The air drones have been used for a few years now and they can fly them in at very low altitudes into the eyewalls of storms without risking crews. They will be throwing the proverbial kitchen sink of instruments at this thing along with the constant Hurricane Hunter flights by NOAA and the Air National Guard.
Data, data, data. The more the better.
Note Can anybody get me a ticket on a hurricane hunter flight? I'd die happy if that could happen lol
and the 6Z & 18Z only have partial data. I did sub to Pivotal Weather to get some more Euro run data plus get to look at the NBM (which I think was really good this past winter handling some of the marginal frozen events here, considering it's just a model "blend" ).
There was supposed to be an upgrade this year for the GFS to run it more often with more data but haven't checked the status of that since spring.
Tropical Tidbits tracks the NOAA and AF recons here (including near real-time dropsonde data) - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
There's one in progress right now in Ian - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#NOAA9-1609A-IAN
but the only issue is that they haven't converted to using the more secure "https" and thus my Firefox refuses to connect to it (unless I jump through a lot of hoops or look at it in Edge or Chrome).
Out of my huge list of bookmarks, I'll also sometimes go to this (somewhat "busy" ) site - https://spaghettimodels.com/
He's got a pile of cool little panels of stuff there.
as my weather bookmarks list is so long it takes me forever to scroll through to find what I want. 
There's a Hurricane Hunter in there right now doing the perimeters and passes over the center - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#NOAA9-1609A-IAN
