Russian administrators leave second city of Ukraine's Kherson region

[Beastly Boy]

Source: Reuters

Nov 15 (Reuters) - Civil servants working for the Russian-installed administration in Nova Kakhovka, the second-largest city in Ukraine's southern Kherson region, have left along with thousands of residents due to fighting, officials said on Tuesday.

The city lies on the east bank of the Dnipro river, next to the huge Kakhovka dam, which both Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of shelling. It also adjoins the town of Tavriisk at the mouth of the North Crimean Canal, a crucial source of fresh water to the arid Crimean peninsula, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014.

--snip--

Russia has already asked civilians to leave areas of Kherson province within 15 km (nine miles) of the Dnipro's eastern bank, and says its forces have taken up defensive positions on that side of the river.

Images published on social media on Tuesday appeared to show Russian troops had left the town of Oleshky, directly across the Dnipro from the city of Kherson, suggesting that one of the war's biggest retreats may not have ended at the water's edge.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-installed-civil-servants-leave-nova-kakhovka-ukraines-kherson-region-2022-11-15/

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Looks like Russia is not stopping its retreat at the left bank of the Dnipro River, and plans to continue their pull-back further east and south. Both Oleshki and Nova Kakhovka are extremely valuable strategic locations, each situated on the Russian side of the river aalong the only two bridges across it. Russia's apparent intention to abandon both looks like a desperate move on their part. I can't think of anything that would prompt this move, so I suspect there is something going on behind the scenes, and we may hear more good news from Ukraine's Southern front.

[niyad]

1. Slava Ukraini! Thank you for the update.

[Botany]

2. Nova Kakhovka is on the east side of the Dnipro.

This is really big and tells me that the Russians might be falling back through out the
Kherson Oblast. Their days having forces on the ground in Ukraine including Crimea
might be coming to the end.

[OnlinePoker]

7. There was this story this morning about a 15-20km pullback from the Dnipro

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/15/7376410/

The only thing that concerns me with this is if the Ukrainians move across the river into the low lying area on the other side, Russia blows the dam and drowns them all. I wouldn't put it past the Russians to have submersibles laden with high explosives just waiting for that opportunity.

[Botany]

10. If the Ukrainian forces are crossing into the eastern side of the river I bet you they will push

... to be past the flood plain of the river in case the dam is blown and I think the Ukrainians and their allies
already also have some bridges in the city of Kherson too. I could see the Ukrainian troops crossing @
the city of Kherson and then working their way to link up with the forces that are now on the east side of
the river via crossing at the dam area.

I might be wrong but I think a lot of Russian troops are going to be trapped very soon.
Especially if the U.A. forces push through to take back Maripol and then they would have
lots of Russians trapped between their forces on 3 sides and sea.

I saw something that the Russian military was limiting the amount of ammunition that they were giving to
the Russian troops especially the conscripts because they liked to use it to shoot their senior officers.


FYI these are tough people.

Link to tweet

[onetexan]

11. OMG this breaks my heart

[Beastly Boy]

13. If Ukr moves across the river, their first objective would be to secure the dam.

If Russians blow up the dam before then, it will be the Russians drowning.

[Quakerfriend]

3. UA let's roll!

I don’t think the Russians expected the UA to cross the Dnipro so quickly- social media videos show them crossing at dawn…but, this has not yet been confirmed by the Ukrainian gov’t.

[herding cats]

4. I saw that as well.

They're extremely organized and not letting up in the least!

[IronLionZion]

5. I hope Ukraine can protect the dam

Russia has been shelling it but it's still holding for now.

[Beastly Boy]

6. I doubt the Russians are interested in blowing up the dam

It's the only fresh water source for the whole of Crimean peninsula. Also, if the dam bursts, it will mostly flood their side of the river. They will not even have the time to steal ambulances and toilets from the civilians as they abandon the area.

[Strelnikov_]

16. Yea. Only way the Russkies are blowing that dam . . .

is if the Ukrainian's are on the verge of recapturing Crimea.

On the other hand, that canal is an ace in the hole for Ukraine in any negotiations.

As in, leave the rest of Ukraine, and we will turn the water back on.

[blue-wave]

8. Let's hope they run all the way to beyond the Russian border

I read unconfirmed reports the other day that Ukrainian special forces crossed the Dnipro and are in control of the Kinburn Spit. If so, the Russians might be concerned about encirclement. Slava Ukraini!! Heroyam Slava!!

[oldsoftie]

9. I imagine they'll move those forces to the Donetsk region

Then again, they may all run away if told to go there

[Kennah]

12. Out of SPF 2 million

[Martin68]

14. More egg on Pootie's face as his efforts to solidify his annexation attempt by issuing

Russian currency and installing Russian administrators crumbles.

[Strelnikov_]

15. North Crimean Canal

Ukraine shut down the canal in 2014 soon after Russia annexed Crimea. Russia restored the flow of water in March 2022 during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

A 2015 study found that the canal had been providing 85% of Crimea's water prior to the 2014 shutdown. Of the water from the canal, 72% went to agriculture and 10% to industry, while water for drinking and other public uses made up 18%.[1]

. . .

According to official Russian statistics, the Crimean agricultural industry fully overcame the consequences of the blocking the North Crimean Canal and crop yields grew by a factor of 1.5 from 2013 by 2016.[9] The reported rapid growth in agricultural production in Crimea is due to the fact that, with the help of subsidies in the order of 2–3 billion rubles a year from the budget of the Russian Federation, agricultural producers in Crimea were able to increase their fleet of agricultural machinery.[10][11][12]

These official statistics contrast with reports of a massive shrinkage in the area under cultivation in Crimea, from 130,000 hectares in 2013 to just 14,000 in 2017,[13] and an empty canal and a nearly dry reservoir resulting in widespread water shortages,[14][15][6] with water only being available for three to five hours a day in 2021.[15] That same year, the New York Times cited senior American officials as stating that securing Crimea's water supply could be an objective of a possible incursion by Russia into Ukraine.[16][6]

On 24 February 2022, the first day of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops advancing from Crimea established control over the North Crimean Canal.[17] The Head of the Republic of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, told local authorities to prepare the canal to receive water from the Dnieper river and resume the supply of water.[18][19] Two days later, Russian forces used explosives to destroy the dam that had been blocking the flow since 2014, and water supply resumed.[20][1]

[Beastly Boy]

17. Thanks for giving the North Crimean Canal the attention it deserves.

It is the key to Crimea, and it flows from the dam near the city the Russians are apparently getting ready to abandon.

Russia is in a lose-lose situation here. If they blow up the dam, Crimea loses, and if they don't, Ukraine wins.

[Strelnikov_]

20. Thanks for letting me know it even exists

As a Civil Engineer, when your post noted it supplied water to Crimea, I had to take a look.

Kinda like a Soviet version of the Colorado-Big Thompson project. Carries water all the way out onto the Kerch peninsula.

Appears that Crimea, as an economic asset, is worth a lot less without the water it supplies.

[Igel]

18. Or maybe the civilian administrators don't want to be there.

It's well within range of standard artillery, and the city could be shelled heavily and repeatedly, esp. if the military has an active and non-trivial presence.

Since the Russian military seems to like to billet their troops in private residences, that "non-trivial presence" can be taken as a given.

Word was weeks ago that the Kherson admin had moved to some berg between Kherson and the Crimea.

[Beastly Boy]

19. The events in Nova Kakhovka mimick those in Kherson.

First, Russia's administrative apparatus was evacuated. Then the civilians. This was followed by the Russian army leaving the city. As of today, the latter hasn't happened in Nova Kakhovka, but your arguments have merit. The reason I believe the Kherson scenario is likely to be duplicated in Nova Kakhovka is because it already happened in Oleshky, in the vicinity of the Antonivka Bridge. No Russian troops there. This doesn't inspire my confidencce in the Russian troops holding onto Nova Kakhovka.