Arab League suspends Syria mission - Nabil el-Arabi

[pampango]

The Arab League says it is suspending its controversial monitoring mission in Syria because of the upsurge in violence. A statement said the observers would remain in Syria, but temporarily stop their work.

The mission was set up in December to monitor Damascus' compliance with the League's plan to end bloodshed. But several countries withdrew monitors. The mission has been criticised as toothless by Syria's opposition.

"It has been decided to immediately stop the work of the Arab League's mission to Syria pending presentation of the issue (violence) to the league's council," Secretary General Nabil el-Arabi said in a statement.

Activists say that 135 people have been killed across Syria in the past two days.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16774171

Not sure if this is good news for Assad or not. He seems to think that having them there is a OK, as long as they don't actually do anything. I'm not sure that the Arab League's council can do anything that it hasn't already done, so Assad may win this round.

[KG]

1. we'll i'm sure NATO will show up to overthrow Assad,

just as soon as large oil reserves are discovered under Syria...

[pampango]

2. NATO is not going to do anything unless the UN authorizes it. Even if the latter happens,

it is more likely that Turkey and the Arab League might do something, but most likely all they are talking about are sanctions and isolating Assad.

One good question for Russia might why it chooses to protect Assad, but did nothing to protect Gaddafi and all of Libya's oil. The West and the Arab League are trying to put as much non-military pressure on Assad as possible, but Russia is doing all it can to keep him in power.

BTW a lot of people who wish the Syrian people the best think that a Libya-style intervention is not possible in Syria.

http://www.juancole.com/2011/10/why-a-no-fly-zone-wont-work-in-syria.html

Most important, a no-fly zone is not a practical response to the Baath government’s repression. ... Nor are helicopter gunships or tank units central to the coercive abilities of the Syrian state. Syrian geography is complex, and plinking tanks from the air is not an option in Syria.

In international law since 1945, especially in the UN charter, the only grounds for going to war are self-defense or as a result of a UNSC resolution. Neither obtains in Syria and any foreign intervention would therefore be illegal, and the pilots could be tried in international courts.

It breaks my heart to say all this. The youth of Syria is being cold-bloodedly shot down by army snipers. You wish there was a way to stop it. But there isn’t. There isn’t a practical set of military tactics outsiders could deploy effectively in this situation.

[tabatha]

4. The only way to help is logistically.

This may turn into a Shia versus Sunni brawl.

There are a few thousand Iranians and Hezbollah helping Assad.

A few thousand Sunni from outside Syria are helping the opposition.

The conflict is being drawn along those lines.

Since Syria is a mostly Sunni state, Assad can only win with outside help.

Some Christians are joining the protesters.

And a Serb or two have taken over the Syria blogs on AJE, impersonating regular posters and posting automatically with a script. Seems as though AJE and/or DisQus are unable to stop them.

[David__77]

5. Gaddafi was not a reliable asset to the Russians.

He even gave the Soviets many headaches. And Libya had no friends in the Arab and Middle Eastern countries. Syria has Iraq and Lebanon, and Iran. The Shia/Sunni tensions provides a wedge for Russian influence. Another difference is that Medvedev is on his way out, and Putin has different ideas about Russia geopolitical role.

[tabatha]

3. NATO does not want to intervene in Syria.

They got out 3 months before Jalil wanted them to remain. They could not afford it.

BTW, they were ASKED by the Libyans for help.

They did not just barge right in.