PPP: Hillary Could Carry Texas in 2016

[DonViejo]

Source: TPM



TOM KLUDT 3:03 PM EST, THURSDAY JANUARY 31, 2013

At the risk of reading too deeply into a race that is a little less than four years away, a poll released Thursday suggested that Hillary Clinton could carry the crimson red state of Texas in the 2016 presidential election.

The latest survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling showed Clinton essentially tied with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ). She topped Rubio by a single point in the hypothetical matchup, 46 percent to 45 percent, and by only 2 points over Christie, 45 percent to 43 percent. But Texas voters gave Clinton an even wider edge over their own Republican governor and former presidential candidate, Rick Perry, 50 percent to 42 percent. Fifty percent of Lone Star State voters said they have a favorable opinion of Clinton, compared with 43 percent who view her unfavorably.

A Democrat has not carried Texas in a presidential election since former President Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976.

-30-

Read more: http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/ppp-hillary-could-carry-texas-in-2016?ref=fpb

---

Link to PPP poll:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/clinton-could-win-texas.html

[ForgoTheConsequence]

1. I'm trying to avoid 2016 news.

But this is too cool to pass up.

[BeyondGeography]

2. Rest up, Mme. Secretary

[Auntie Bush]

3. Texas voted for Jimmy Carter!!??!!??

I didn't know that! I'm stunned!

[angel823]

5. well...

Texas was, at one time, very blue.

Angel in Texas

[DonViejo]

6. Carter carried many southern states...

A. Because he is a southerner, and;

B. He self-ID'd as a born-again Xtian.

On edit: Carter carried all Southern states except VA.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1976

[argyl]

7. Texas was actually the westernmost state to be carried by Carter. The electoral map has changed.

[Kennah]

30. You ain't kiddin'!

Looking at the 1976 map, I am stunned. I mean, like, seriously!? Wow!

[Gore1FL]

46. The wedge issues employed by the GOP had regional targets n/t

[cosmicone]

31. Hawai'i was the Westernmost n/t

[BigDemVoter]

44. AND California was RED at the time!!

As you say, the electoral map HAS changed!!!

[Drunken Irishman]

26. He did in '76, but lost it by 14 points in 1980.

[LonePirate]

4. If she can carry Texas, she would likely carry 40 or more states.

I would certainly welcome such a victory by any Democratic candidate.

[antigop]

8. Another stupid poll...no one has announced...the election is years away. Stupid. nt

[BlueStater]

9. She might win Texas but she won't win over me.

Last edited Thu Jan 31, 2013, 06:39 PM - Edit history (1)

The prospects of her running for president AGAIN doesn't excite me at all. For one thing, I'm a little unnereved that the same people who were running the country when I was 7 will be running it again when I'm 31. New people PLEASE.

[dreamnightwind]

11. +1

We gave the centrists their chance, and they showed where they stand, which is with the 1%. It's a long way till 2016. There's time now to cultivate a candidate from the democratic wing of the Democratic Party, who will champion policies that help the rest of us. No more DLC, Progressive Policy Institute, New Dems (= old Republicans), please.

[antigop]

15. watch it, dream... you'll be called a "hater" or something nt

[dreamnightwind]

40. The time for this debate is now

Pretty much every time throughout the 4-year cycle, I'm told it's not the right time to advocate for better Democrats, that I need to fall in line and support the centrists or I'm supporting Republicans. Seems like there is no better time than now to push back against this. No elections on the horizon, this is when the future is made.

Public polls have given a lot of support for a number of progressive issues. So we have a great context in which to come up with candidates who can deliver on those issues, or who will die trying. In the end, win or lose, fighting for the correct policies makes it more likely that those policies will eventually prevail. Triangulation and centrism just enable this seemingly endless slide to the right and transfer money up to the 1%, the opposite of what needs to happen.

I really hope DU can help move things back to the left, it could be a great force for good if we could stipulate that we have that objective.

[antigop]

42. Thank you... 100% agree...great video in the video forum.....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/101795671

more concentration of wealth and less democracy....it needs to stop.

[NoOneMan]

12. New people aren't guaranteed to bring new ideas

They come from the same schools. They are reinforced by the same cultural narratives and stories. You can't stand on top of men's shoulders to reach the podium if those people aren't willing to carry you there. So being a politician of any renown may disqualify you from being able to produce relevant solutions or see the world in a different manner.

Likely, I think if there are any solutions to what we face ahead in this century, they may not come out of politics (or at least establishment, national-level politics).

[SunSeeker]

45. Exactly. I want the most electable Dem candidate--to keep Scalias off SCOTUS.

Other than that a President can only do so much--except that a Republican President can do a lot of harm. Real change has to come from the people (us).

[Beacool]

14. Then feel free to vote for a Republican.

[BlueStater]

16. So anyone who doesn't slobber over her like you do is apparently a Republican.

Last edited Thu Jan 31, 2013, 08:46 PM - Edit history (1)

Nice.

[LanternWaste]

41. New Coke and Windows 8 attest to the veracity of that statement!

"New people PLEASE..."

New Coke and Windows 8 attest to the veracity of that statement!

[antigop]

10. follow the money....who's paying for the poll? nt

[Beacool]

13. Coming to DU is like going to a RW site when it comes to articles on the Clintons.

Last edited Thu Jan 31, 2013, 11:42 PM - Edit history (1)

I just read comment after positive comment on a NYT article by Gail Collins on Hillary, but one can come here and think that she must be the most unpopular politician in the US.

Pathetic and disgusting!!!



As for this poll, good for her. More than ever I hope that she does choose to run in 2016, it'll be a tremendous amount of fun to see as many LW heads explode as those on the right.

[grantcart]

18. +1

[NYC Liberal]

20. You even see right-wing nicknames being used here

like "Billary" and "Clintoon".

Basically, the Clintons are incredibly popular everywhere except right-wing outfits...and DU.

[Beacool]

22. I found that out in 2008.

In the real world, they are the most popular politicians in the country. I don't know what Hillary will choose to do, but whatever it is, it will involve service. It's in her genes.

[NYC Liberal]

23. I hope she runs. I have a feeling that after some much needed (and deserved) time off,

she will be ready to embark on her next journey. Maybe that will be the White House, maybe not. Either way I have a hunch she isn't done just yet. Sorry Clinton-haters, but Bill and Hillary will be around for many more years.

Have you had a chance to meet Hillary, btw? I have several times and each time I did I found myself wondering where that BS idea that she has no charm or charisma came from. She is one of the nicest, most down-to-earth politicians I've met. One time I ran into her in the lobby of an office building here in NY, during the 2008 primaries. No doubt she had a very busy schedule but she stopped and chatted with everyone -- from a couple of high-powered "suits" to some of the maintenance guys -- like they were old friends.

Hillary will mop the floor with any of the clowns the GOP has in store. I am so looking forward to seeing her debate one of the GOP idiots.

[Beacool]

24. Yes, I know her.

I wouldn't be so supportive of a stranger. That's why it kills me to read so much garbage spewed about her. She's one terrific person. She's like you described her. She and Bill have helped so many people, quietly, without any media attention.

[NYC Liberal]

25. She's been fighting the good fight for decades now.

I'll support her in whatever she decides to do next.

[Beacool]

29. Me too.

[BooScout]

57. Me three.

Unfortunately I am already seeing signs of the ugliness of the last primaries rearing it's nasty head around here.

[Beacool]

60. Yeah, they still don't get it.

The criticism baffles me because those on the left act as if Obama is more "progressive" than Hillary, when that's not true. Their major difference was not voting for the IWR, but Obama wasn't in the Senate at the time. Even though he gave a speech condemning the war, he admitted to Tim Russert in 2004 that he didn't know how he would have voted if he had been in the Senate.

They also make false equivalences between decisions that Bill made in the 90s as president. The 90s were not the 00s. Different era, different problems, different public perspective on the issues. For example, there was very little support in the 90s for gay marriage. There was even a Congressional proposal to amend the Constitution to establish marriage as a union between a man and a woman. DOMA was the compromise. Besides, Hillary is her own person and this is a different time in history.

Knowing Hillary a tiny bit, and knowing a lot more about her from people who are close to her, I think that she would make a great president. She's tough (observe how she smacked the Tea Party gang in Congress a couple of weeks ago), but also compassionate and does care deeply about people's well being.

[David__77]

54. No heads exploding, just a dedication to defeat her should that come to pass.

She would certainly not make it past the primary politically. Thankfully, she will not run.

[Beacool]

55. And you have a crystal ball?

Well, two can play that game. If Hillary runs she will win the nomination and the presidency. The time has come for a woman president, and no woman is as prepared as Hillary.

[BooScout]

58. Ditto to that!

Good to see you Bea!

[Beacool]

59. Hi!!!

How are things in Wales? Pretty cold here in NJ.

[PuffedMica]

17. Oh Yeah?

Well Chuck Norris could carry Hillary carrying Texas with one hand and then carry Louisiana in the other while swimming across the Gulf of Mexico to Florida!

With that idiot Rick Perry running Texas, it looks ripe for picking by any Democrat in the next Presidential race. It is way too soon to start handicapping who gets the nomination at this point, but I am hoping we can find another young, qualified candidate like our current President to come onto the scene.

[Evergreen Emerald]

19. young.

Yeah old women should stay home and knit.

[deurbano]

21. Just put them on an ice floe and be done with it...

[Ian Iam]

27. That is, perhaps, a jot optimistic

But 270+ electoral votes: She would achieve that easily!

[BlueStreak]

28. It isn't actually that far off. Primaries start in 3 years.

Candidates have to be all in at least one year before that, and they have to be very active behind the scenes a year before that. So basically, we have about 11 months before things start to take shape.

And given that Clinton would be the odds-on favorite for Dem nomination if she decided to run, anybody else who wants to make a serious run really has to start positioning very seriously THIS YEAR.

The people who say we shouldn't be talking about it now don't have a clue as to how the cycle works.

[madville]

32. They went 57-41 for Romney

And are now going to magically swing Democratic? Could be possible I guess, part of that 57 percent might have just been voting against President Obama because he's black.

[Paladin]

35. It's Not Magic, It's Well-Documented Demographic Shifts. (nt)

[RZM]

39. 9 points in 4 years isn't all that realistic

Every cycle people trumpet the early polls and when it's over, everybody has to admit that early polls mean nothing.

Then, like clockwork, everybody goes right back to paying attention to early polls.

And this is to say nothing about early polls involving Hillary herself. If those had indicated the future, she would be president right now.

[John2]

36. You want to know the formula?

The formula again is the Republican's worst nightmare of the future. Demographics and any kind of subject on science is something the Republicans have no grasp of. It is making people like Rush Limbaugh quake.

Texas appears to be on the path of a sunami like California. Remember California use to be competitive for Republicans also. When was the last time a Republican Presidential candidate won California?

The youngest demographics in Texas are minorities. The oldest demographic is white. The Demographics with the highest birth rates in Texas are minorities. The highest immigration in that State are Hispanics. The most new voters that will be registered by 2014 will come from young people. By 2016, it will be even more as those young people become legally elgible to vote. We are talking in the thousands to millions of new voters. That is how California turned Blue. The Republicans better do something quick to win the interests of those Demographics, and depressing the vote or changing the way elections are done, just want cut it. Time and the future does not adjust to man. Man needs to adjust to fate or destiny. They need to learn to live with people and compromise. That is the only way the Republican Party will survive and compete with the Democratic Party. They will have to open up their Party to different demographics. And I do believe we will have a Hispanic President in the near future but not Rubio as long as he keeps kissing the behind of men like Limbaugh. People are not stupid either. Just like African Americans see through Clarence Thomas or Allen West, Hispanics will catch on to Rubio. He is a stooge.

[justabob]

56. one thing....

I keep reading articles and opinions about this, and every time it appears we are just supposed to wait for the demographics to do their thing and Texas will magically turn blue some time in the future. You say the GOP needs to start doing things to court the various demographics.... That is true, but the dems can't just leave those folks hanging either or the GOP may just be able to make inroads. I know it is unlikely, but it is foolish to chance it, AND even if they can't, we risk apathy in the new voters if the dems keep to their hands off approach.

Texas has been written off by the national party for years, save for the brief time Dean was at the DNC when there was a notice-able difference made. If they had put even a little bit of effort ala Deans 50 state strategy, the margins would not be nearly so wide right now. But the party (and here on this board), people just say "Fuck Texas we can't win there, so don't even bother, (liberals should just move)." Dems need to get candidates in EVERY race (local, state and national), rural and urban, even if they don't seem winnable, and there needs to be more national support and development for them, and they need to spend some money down here generally. It pisses me off that we keep getting written off, and now that there is some hope for the future, the dems still seem content not to do anything here... just cross fingers and wait to see how the demographic stuff works out.

[McDiggy]

33. I'd like to see a poll in West Virginia...

...back in 2008, Hillary was up 5 points on McCain during the primaries. There is a segment of non looney, right of center voters that love, love, love the Clintons. States like Texas and West Virginia have them in droves.

Link to polls: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_Hillary_Clinton_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008#John_McCain_vs._Hillary_Clinton

Hillary could all but mail it in against anyone right now, IMO. She's got the most experience, the best track record, and the most favorability out of the entire mess of potential candidates.

[hamsterjill]

34. She's already got MY vote!

San Antonio, here, and if she runs, she has my vote and my full support.

That said, I am anxious to see what transpires over the next four years. I hope to stay focused on that time frame rather than looking to 2016 just yet.

[cvsgracht]

37. Opening up the South in general

A Hillary run could also open up Arkansas, get North Carolina back and provide the pivotal push to make Georgia the swing state it should be. Very exciting times.

[ScreamingMeemie]

51. Welcome to DU, cvsgracht...!

[maverickfox]

38. I think Hillary would be a better assest as a Veep

Don't get me wrong, I like her quite a bit, but if she does consider running, she'll be working to maintain the Obama Coalition- a good portion of which is younger voters.

At age 69 by 2016, she might be too strong a symbol of the "old guard"- but if she were a VP pick alongside someone like say, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala (not the wrestler) Harris or Julian Castro, it probably wouldn't be that big an issue.

Were she on the top of the ticket, I see that as a golden opportunity for the GOP brass to get behind someone like Jindal or Rubio (who would both be 45) and paint 2016 as a battle of "old vs new". It wouldn't guarantee a Rep win, but it'd be a strong framing device.

Of course, they could just nominate Santorum and practically hand us a third White House run.

[Faygo Kid]

43. She wouldn't take the VP slot. No way.

Welcome to DU, anyway.

[Beacool]

49. Hell, no!!!

If she chooses to run, then it'll be for the top spot or nothing.

[Ter]

63. Two firsts would never work

Two women would be like two African Americans in 2008, or two gays in 2032.

[windowpilot]

47. Texas will support any warmonger...

N/T

[Beacool]

50. Love the sound of that word, huh?

[ffr]

48. Keep the good times rollin into 2016, elect Hillary and

hand the controls over to the Big Dawg!

[graham4anything]

52. In the (c)words of Nikki Finke(c)-Told ya so!!! .In the words of G4A-Hillary45/Biden2016

Hillary45 will/can win 450 electoral votes with Texas.

and continue the President Obama terms for 16 years.

With change comes continuation

and it takes a Clinton to defeat Jeb Bush.
(whom this poll does not include for some reason).

and unlike those that say they don't want to discuss 2016 (most of whom I would wager IMHO don't actually want Hillary45, so they want to stiffle(as Archie Bunker arch conservative used to say) all talk about HIllary45.

however, IMHO, and this is really important IMHO-
the steamroller effect of positive news like this is-it allows ALL those who secretly wish Texas would be blue, but figure, well, since Ann Richards it hasn't happened, this will indeed help
turn the Governor's mansion democratic, and follow that with the Presidential race.
And could help in house districts therefore not thought possible, as long as major candidates are put up to run on the democratic line in all districts.

so this helps the entire
(and its interesting because I heard this word today in conjunction with the passing of
Ed Koch (whom by the way really devastated Andy C. didn't he), how love him or hate him,
Ed lifted the morale of NYC at the time Gerald Ford said NY was dead.

so this indeed helps the entire MORALE of the southern Democratic voters and party to see that indeed, Texas and the south can indeed rise again AS DEMOCRATIC OFFICE HOLDERS.
and in positive thinking, it expands and more and more, once they believe it possible, go for it.
Positive attitudes always succeed over negative ones.
Silence leads to negativity because someone thinking well it could happen, who doesn't hear others saying it, tends to not want to attempt it.
Loud cheering on the other hands, gets those who are sitting quietly, to start clapping along
and the cheers get louder and louder and louder and louder.
(and of course, those that don't want to hear laughter and cheers, will indeed attempt to
say be silent.
Like they did to Howard Dean for being enthusiatic.
Like they did in the aftermath of the celebration of the life of Paul Wellstone.
Last thing the Bush family and the republican party likes is cheering and applauding and noise.
In silence they win.

So yell it out and continue to yell it out from now til Jan.20, 2017 when Hillary Rodham Clinton is sworn in as the 45th President of the United States.
And Texas is part of the great Democratic rainbow that is going to add blue to the rest of America that isn't already on board.

Go Hillary45.

Because now that we have President Obama, we don't need to pass the torch. We just need to lateral it and keep the ball for the continuation to move forward.

IMHO of course.
(and it seems in this PPP poll, in the opinion of a helleva lotta Texans too.)


take a nice vacation, rest up.And let's make it as easy and stress free so that
THE DREAM LIVES ON for your mother and for all who as the Declaration should have said all are equal.(but unfortunately, Thomas Jefferson left out 2/3 of the 2013 country in his badly written (but written on purpose)statement).

[David__77]

53. She has rightly said that she will not run.

Her trust in scurrilous characters like Penn and Schoen, with their racist and right-wing campaign tactics, says a lot about her worth as a presidential candidate. I wish her a pleasant retirement.

[windowpilot]

64. STOP SUPPORTING A DUPED CANDIDATE...

n/t