Syria unrest: Clinton and Hague back Arab League plan at UN

[alp227]

Hillary Clinton, William Hague and Alain Juppé are due at the UN security council in New York on Tuesday to support an Arab League plan to end the violence in Syria and to try to overcome Russian-led opposition to a UN-backed demand for political change in Damascus.

As Syrian forces poured into Damascus districts to wrest them from rebel control, a joint European-Arab resolution calling for Bashar al-Assad to hand power to his deputy as a prelude to political transition won the support of the 10 security council member states necessary to force a vote.

Diplomats at the UN said that a vote on the resolution, formally presented by Morocco, was likely by Thursday, after the council considers a report on the Syrian situation by the Arab League secretary general, Nabil Elaraby, and the Qatari prime minister, Hamad Bin Jassim, on Tuesday followed by an ambassadors' meeting on Wednesday aimed at finding a compromise formula acceptable to Russia, Assad's principal supporter on the world stage.

"We believe the UN must act to support the people of Syria and that Russia can no longer explain blocking the UN and providing cover for the regime's brutal repression," a Downing Street spokeswoman said.

full: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/30/syria-unrest-arab-league-un

[David__77]

1. It's not "blocking the UN." Russia has veto, just like the US.

The US certainly does not consider it "blocking the UN" when the US wields its veto - which is does with some regularity! The UN requires consensus among the permanent members of the security council.

[Fool Count]

2. Russia can and did explain it very well. After being screwed by US and NATO on the Libya resolution

they learned their lesson and simply would not let it happen again. No con artist should expect serial
cooperation from his victim. Only the most dense would not get this simple explanation. The Downing
Street spokeswomen is just being facetious here. If somebody wants to do a regime change in Syria
as they did in Libya they will have to do it without Russia's and UN's blessing. Russia's UN representative
stated that position directly. The "brutal repression" meme is also getting rather stale. They should first
propose a way for Assad government to fight the armed rebellion which would not be considered a
"brutal repression" and only then expect him to do any better.

[David__77]

3. They do not believe that the Syrian state has any right to defend itself.

That is how we can tell that this is in "regime change" territory. Russia is still behaving foolishly, though. Russia has it within its power to squelch Western talk of intervention, now.

[joshcryer]

5. The Damascus insurgency is new, we'll see if Syria can put a lid on it.

If not Russia is going to be pressed more to act, which is why they can't shut it down now, if they do that and the insurgency continues, they will look very foolish when they send in their tanks.

[David__77]

6. Russia has little choice but to veto this.

Syria already has mobilized tanks for months now. A reckoning of sorts might not be good for the opposition actually. The state is better armed by far. As for insurgencies, it can be "strategy: one against ten, tactics: ten against one." Meaning, you pick your battles and fight on your own terms - it's actually a Maoist dictum, but absolutely correct. But it doesn't appear that they are following that, and it appears that the Damascus adventure was a tactical loss. A war of attrition is simply won't do.

[joshcryer]

4. It's hard to "not brutally repress" an insurgency, imo.

How do you pick out armed people in a crowd of civilians without killing civilians (and likewise bringing those civilians on your side)? The Algerian War is an interesting example, long term insurgency leading to the ouster of French Colonialists. It's going to be fascinating to see the responses by people when Russia moves to end this thing sooner rather than later. I expect the US to maintain a laid back if not completely hands off approach though.

[David__77]

7. Russia has a man identified that it wants in office.

He's a communist, interestingly. Some of the opposition would go for it; the Salafists would absolutely not.