Venezuelan leader Maduro has big poll lead over Capriles

[dipsydoodle]

Source: Reuters

(Reuters) - Venezuela's acting president, Nicolas Maduro, has a commanding 14-percentage point lead over opposition candidate Henrique Capriles ahead of next month's election, according to the first major poll published since the death of Hugo Chavez.

Maduro would win 49.2 percent of the April 14 vote compared with 34.8 percent for Capriles, according to the survey by pollster Datanalisis that was cited on Monday in a research note by Barclays Bank.

It followed other polls showing a solid lead for the 50-year-old former bus driver who has vowed to continue Chavez's state-centred economic policies built on heavy regulations of business and generous social welfare programs.

"Considering the short campaign period, the sympathy effect in the wake of Chavez's death, restrictions on the media, and the demobilization of the opposition after two defeats last year, Maduro remains the favourite," Barclays said.

Read more: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/19/uk-venezuela-election-idUKBRE92H0TY20130319

[naaman fletcher]

1. DU'ers have known about Datanalisis for years and years and years.

The head of Datanalisis was quoted as claiming Hugo Chavez should be murdered. How profoundly pathetic.

Spinning “Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics”
Venezuelan Pollster’s Deceit Failed to Rob Chávez of His Base Among the Poor

By Justin Delacour
Special to The Narco News Bulletin
July 30, 2004

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

– Benjamin Disraeli, Prime Minister of England (1868, 1874-1880)

~snip~
In early February 2003, the anti-Chávez Venezuelan polling firms Datanálisis and Consultores 21 held a joint press conference in Caracas claiming to be “neutral parties” in the country’s deeply polarized political conflict. Just over two weeks before the press conference, Narco News had highlighted that Datanálisis’ President Jose Antonio Gil Yepes had told the Los Angeles Times in July 2002 that Chávez “has to be killed.” Narco News pointed out that a simple glance at Datanálisis’ website revealed “the kind of blatant political partisanship that one normally does not associate with respectable polling operations” (as this report goes to print, Datanálisis’ website has been running John Kerry’s Chávez-bashing misstatement at the top of their “news” column for over a month).

Since Narco News first reported on Datanálisis’ blatant partisanship and biased polling, Gil Yepes has mysteriously disappeared as a public spokesperson for his company (although he occasionally pops up brandishing a letter from L.A. Times correspondent T. Christian Miller, who now supposedly claims that the pollster did not have criminal intent when he told Miller that Chávez “has to be killed”).

With Gil Yepes’ reputation in question, the job of restoring Datanálisis’ mythic neutrality was left to company director Luis Vicente León. Never mind that León had also been making blatantly anti-Chávez statements to the press long before Gil Yepes blurted out his homicidal fantasies to the L.A. Times. In Venezuela, where Chávez-bashing journalists abound, “neutrality” means telling the business-controlled propaganda apparatus what it wants to hear.

~snip~
As it turned out, Datanálisis’ claim that the poor had turned against Chávez with greater vehemence than middle to wealthier strata was plainly dishonest.

Between November 2002 and February 2003—the period of business-led economic sabotage against the Venezuelan government and people—Datanálisis temporarily stopped sending field workers into Chavista-controlled slums. Due to the heightening of resentment towards biased pollsters as well as increasing levels of crime resulting from the misery induced by the economic sabotage, field workers could not safely perform surveys.

In other words, León relied on telephone polls for his claim that lower-income respondents had turned strongly against Chávez (Datanálisis’ website acknowledged that its December 2002 poll regarding the opposition’s so-called “general strike” was conducted by telephone). The sociologist Greg Wilpert, who resides in Caracas, estimates that only 50 percent of Venezuelan households have mainline telephones, meaning that Datanálisis could scarcely have polled stratum E (the poor) during the period on which León based his deceitful claim.

Now, as the opposition’s campaign is clearly faltering and Venezuela’s poor appear poised to turn out en masse against the recall of President Chávez, the failure of the anti-Chávez pollsters’ underhanded attempts to deny the government of its long-standing base becomes increasingly clear.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=405&topic_id=40712&mesg_id=40988

[daleo]

2. Reminiscent of "Dewey Beats Truman"

That mis-forecast was also supposed to be due to polling being skewed by the presence of phones being more likely in households of Republican than Democratic supporters. It's not a new phenomenon, and a legitimate pollster would certainly try to account for it.

[mpcamb]

9. Thanks

Great background info heading into their election.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

3. It's a shame the poor are allowed to vote....

Makes it tough on the rich to own the world.

[Catherina]

5. Ain't it though

Listen to the handwringing and lies from the imperial faction. They're shocked, just shocked, that little people would actually register to vote when the outcome makes an enormous difference to their daily lives:

Venezuela has an unusually high number of registered voters — nearly 19 million in a country of 29 million — which has led opposition leaders to suspect that Cuban officials, who are officially in charge of Venezuela’s national identification system, are giving out more than one voter registration card to pro-government public employees.

...

Eighth, Venezuela’s election oversight authorities are a joke, as is its entire justice system.

...

Granted, Capriles must run. He has little option. It would be a disaster for the opposition to throw in the towel, dismantle its electoral apparatus, and not even try to beat Maduro. But if Maduro wins, as seems likely, it will be absurd for the world to judge the election outcome as proof that Chavismo is immensely popular in Venezuela.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/03/16/3288655/venezuela-election-a-david-vs.html

Wring your hands all you want vultures, leeches, but the people aren't giving up their revolution without a strong fight.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

6. Some "revolution"....

There have been regime changes where they pronounce all deeds for all property null and void. Vast regions of land have been broken up and handed to the poor.

All Chavez did was require the oil companies to pay a little more for the oil they were taking. Then he used that money to give his people a better quality of life.

But, you see, Corporations WANT there to be slums with people starving or dying from easily curable diseases. The contrast makes them feel superior.

[Catherina]

7. Hugo Chavez, Jacobo Arbenz....

The greed never changes.

Message from Latin American to the US. We are not your slaves. We are not your backyard plantations. We will not slave away so your investors can get richer as we starve.


We are not your slums.

You have your own slums to deal with. Deal with them instead of looking for more people to steal from to subsidize your for-profit MIC and service industries.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

8. A fair day's work is supposed to include a fair day's pay....

That's now deemed to be talk from a commie.

[Peace Patriot]

4. 14%, hm. Wonder how far the corporate media moguls can cut that down...

...with non-stop "Big Lies" about the disaster that is Venezuela (not).

Rotters: 1%.

Associated Pukes: 1%.

New York Slimes: 1%.

Wall Street Urinal: 1%.

Miami Hairball: 1%.

Washington Psst: 1%.

TV/radio alphabet soup on our public airwaves: 1%.

BBCons: 1%.

The Economyst: 1%.

Spanish language media moguls: 1%.

= 10%.

Hm. Somebody's got to try harder...

-----------------

Okay, gentlemen, you know what you have to do. We can put Capriles within 4% of WINNING, easy as pie, no effort, just doing what we do! But we need more than that and we need it now. Get on your hirelings as of yesterday. We got this fax from...well, nevermind...the talking points are, "Crime in the streets and chaos--inflation, capital flight, blackouts, murder, chaos...". You know the drill! I KNOW it never worked before, and your pigeons are getting sick and tired of it, and Venezuelan voters are stupid peasants who don't know what's good for 'em... but now is different. Now is our chance! Go for it! Go for it!

"Chavez’s Death A Huge Opportunity — If Venezuelans Can Seize It"
http://interamericansecuritywatch.com/chavezs-death-a-huge-opportunity-if-venezuelans-can-seize-it/

Gentlemen, change that headline to
"Chavez’s Death A Huge Opportunity — If Media Moguls Can Seize It"!

Seize the day! Be Number One! Shave off 4% and you get the Lollipop!

End video conference.

-------------------

(not really)