U.S. Signs Contingency Plan With South Korea for Attack by North

[bananas]

Source: Bloomberg

The U.S. and South Korea signed a contingency plan of action against attacks from North Korea, which this month threatened preemptive nuclear strikes against the two allies.

General James Thurman, commander of U.S. Forces Korea, signed the agreement on March 22 with South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Jung Seung Jo, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said today in a statement on its website.

The document outlines South Korean-led, U.S.-backed action against various scenarios from a North Korean provocation, the ministry said. The two militaries decided to draft a joint blueprint after North Korea shelled the South Korean border island of Yeonpyeong in November 2010.

Inter-Korean tensions are the highest at least since the 2010 attack after Kim Jong Un’s regime detonated a nuclear device in February. The U.S. and South Korea are in the middle of military drills that North Korea has said put the peninsula on the brink of war, and the Obama administration is boosting its regional anti-missile defenses as a result.

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Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-25/u-s-and-south-korea-finalize-contingency-plan-against-n-korea.html

[snappyturtle]

1. This scares me. Rattling the cage doesn't help. imho nt

[TwilightGardener]

3. I think it's meant to deter a N Korean strike--let them know that

actions like sinking S Korean ships, in the future, will trigger us jumping in and cause a full-scale war.

[snappyturtle]

4. Yes. Maybe that's what Un wants....anytime someone ratches things up, I get

scared. Don't want a Gulf of Tonkin incident....sorry. I sometimes let my imagination take over.

[Pterodactyl]

2. Good to see cooperation with our ally. Having a good plan can help prevent war.

[snappyturtle]

5. Not to be snarky but South Korea is probably more than happy to 'cooperate'. nt

[Pterodactyl]

6. Don't think I get the joke.

[snappyturtle]

7. I didn't intend my remark to be a joke. I just think that S. Korea would

very much like to have the U.S. watching their back....thus, easy to cooperate. Sorry if I wasn't clear.

[davidpdx]

8. It is in South Korea's best interest to cooperate

If you look at the Seoul Metropolitan Area (Incheon, Gyeonggi-do Province, and Seoul City) the population is about 23.8 million (this includes the small suburb I live in which is about 80,000) twice that of the LA Metro Area. Almost 50% of the population of all of Korea (48-49%) lives in the Seoul Metro Area. A first strike by North Korea would could hit the Seoul Metro Area hard until South Korea and the US responded (I'm not sure how long that would take, I'm guessing a matter of minutes). There are a few major US military bases just south of the SMA including Osan Air Base which is where fighters would come from.

[liberalgunwilltravel]

9. non-conventional

Because of the overwhelming number of North Korean troops and the time it would take to respond conventionally and effectively to ground and artillery attacks by the North, the only effective response would be a rapid, tactical nuclear response that could occurs in a very short order. The big question is: how would China then respond? That is what is so scary about this whole affair.

[davidpdx]

10. I honestly don't think nukes would be used

South Korea doesn't have nukes, only the US.

A few things you aren't taking into account:

1) For them to "invade" they would have to come through the DMZ which is heavily mined. There are small roads and a train track that run over the boarder, but other than that not much.

2) The other thing is we don't know what the desertion rate will be among North Korean soldiers. I would pretty much bet given how little food they are given and how bad morale is that at least 25% would desert. If we put their forces at 1.1 million active soldiers (which is based on a guess) that lowers it to about 825,000. Wikipedia claims there are 8.2 million reserve soldiers as of 2010 and I think that claim is not true. South Korea has 639,000 active soldiers and 28,500 Americans for a total of about 668,000. The difference is around 145,000. The use has another 35,700 in Japan which could be put on planes or boats pretty quickly.

3) Technology wise we have air superiority and that would make quite a difference

4) While I can't confirm this, I suspect South Korea has a missile shield.

China would be a wildcard. My guess is the US would present a resolution in the UN Security Council to put pressure on China not to act. While China or Russia could veto it, they would essentially be telling the world in no uncertain terms "screw you UN". That would pretty much kill any support they may have from other nations.

[Lurks Often]

11. Educated guess is that NK gets the first and probably the second artillery strike

fired before US & SK counter battery (using artillery to attack artillery) returns fire. Once that happens, losses among NK artillery crews will be heavy. Some of the factors that will adversely affect NK's artillery crews is I expect that they will tire quickly due to their current poor diet and the smaller stature due to poor diet as children; morale will almost certainly suffer as the average NK soldier has been lied to about how "superior" they are to US & SK soldiers and I expect the very heavy and accurate counter battery fire to have a severe & negative effect on NK morale. That would also extend to many other parts of the NK military as well as they come up against their US & SK counterparts.

NK's ballistic missiles will only last as long as it takes a couple of B-2's to arrive from Guam and drop conventional, precision deep penetrators against any missile silos or launch sites.

[davidpdx]

12. Guam or possibly Japan

I'm not sure what planes the US has over in Japan. I forgot that Guam is pretty close as well. Never been there, but one of my mentors (professors) lived there many years.

I agree with your analysis though. The desertion rate is hard to know for sure, but I think 25% is a reasonable guess. The artillery would be the main problem. Until you get some planes in there to take them out it would be their only advantage.

[Lurks Often]

13. Guam

We don't base bombers in Japan. They don't want dedicated nuclear weapon capable planes on their islands.

Japan based would be USAF F-15's & F-16's and their support aircraft, with F-22's arriving soon after hostilities start, the US Navy aircraft carrier home ported in Japan and it's air wing and Marine aviation in Okinawa, which almost certainly includes F-18's

[angrychair]

14. Outcome of combat operations

Is not in question. First strike is all NK would get. The US-SK response would be overwhelming and brutal. What I worry about is millions of starving but brainwashed citizens. How will they react to the collapse of their government? There is little to no infrastructure outside of NK's capital. Who and how will NK's issues get fixed? Would it be the US? SK? China? We can ill-afford being stuck nation building again. Those are the type of questions that really need to be asked.