Hagel: NK More Dangerous Today, U.S. Should Be Ready For "Any Eventuality"

[Purveyor]

Source: Yonhap News

By Lee Chi-dong
WASHINGTON, March 28 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel said Thursday that North Korea has become more dangerous today and the U.S. has to be prepared for "any eventuality" on the peninsula.

"I think their very provocative actions and belligerent tone has ratcheted up the danger. And we have to understand that reality," he said during a news conference at the Pentagon. Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, joined the session, aimed mainly at describing the U.S. military's efforts to deal with North Korea and other problems amid massive defense budget cuts.

The secretary stressed that the U.S. and its allies should take seriously "every provocative, bellicose word and action that this new young leader (Kim Jong-un) has taken so far." The communist nation has a 1.1-million-strong military and nuclear bombs.

Hagel admitted "there are a lot of unknowns" when it comes to the secretive and unpredictable North.

Read more: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2013/03/29/39/0301000000AEN20130329000300315F.HTML

---

We knew the old man but I'm not sure we a grasp on what is happening in this kids head...

[hedgehog]

1. A month ago I thought this was all saber rattling; now I'm not so sure!

[elleng]

3. 'Saber rattling' by a kid is SCARY.

[HereSince1628]

14. Particularly a kid 'groomed' for this job.

The possibilities for a life of tightly twisted education are pretty large.

[defacto7]

15. NK did shoot down

a defenceless passenger jet a few years ago without provocation. Hundreds killed. They will shoot when they feel like it's time to be stupid. Their ideology is way beyond logic so we shouldn't expect any.

[Art_from_Ark]

25. I don't recall ever hearing about North Korea shooting down a passenger jet

But back in the '80s, the USSR shot down a Korean Airlines jet that had strayed off course, and in another incident, two North Korean spies were convicted of planting a bomb on a Korean Airlines jet that exploded while in flight.

More recently, though, it was South Korea that shot at (but missed) a passenger jet that had been mistakenly identified as a North Korean military jet.

[defacto7]

39. You are correct. I had my history mixed. Not very good points on my part.

This does show the tension that surrounds that peninsula, I will say.

[Faygo Kid]

7. Same here. The regime is insane, and near the end. Dangerous.

I think they are finally collapsing, making it the most dangerous time of all. If China can't control them, the world - and especially South Korea - is in trouble.

[Posteritatis]

9. It is most likely 'just' louder saber rattling

Aside from symbolic things like the hotline cuts - the most public of those are gone, but they're still talking on civilian channels on a daily basis - military officials in the US and South Korea keep stressing that there isn't really any unusual actions by the North Koreans.

The rhetoric is getting ramped up to eleven or twelve, they're publicising drills more than they usually are, they're busting out their copies of Photoshop to make the drills look more spectacular, but so far there haven't been any actual physical changes (units moving towards the border - or dispersing to become harder targets) that are leading people to believe something's going to happen.

That could change, of course - duh, North Korea - but a lot of this is the annual spring threatfest that's been going on for decades.

[defacto7]

17. see post #15

Hope you are right... but then....

[Posteritatis]

20. Bad as KAL 858 was, it's very, very different from marching south. (nt)

[SkyDaddy7]

30. Especially if the kid really believes...

all the NK propaganda & thinks he can defeat the USA & take South Korea...Then we are in for trouble.

I too have a odd feeling about this latest round of so-called saber rattling because it has gone further than other times.

[elleng]

2. What I grasp is that this is a KID

and subject to ANYONE's influence, imo. Hagel's correct, 'any eventuality' possible.

[Bluenorthwest]

16. He's 30. Not really a kid.

nt

[Art_from_Ark]

26. Not really a kid,

but not old enough to be President, either.

[SkyDaddy7]

31. I would vote...

"Still a kid"...He has never ever had to work for anything & he has always been given what he wants...Knowing how that does spoiled rich kids in America I could only imagine what it would do to someone who has been treated as royalty his whole life.

We will see!!

[defacto7]

40. I guess that would have made his father a kid as well.

Though in the case of Un, he was educated in the modern west (Switzerland) which means has had the added instruction of computer games. Now he has some real buttons to push. Considering he's tantamount to an "emperor" I hope he knows the difference.

This: or This:

[SkyDaddy7]

53. The SAD FACT is...

We will see is he knows the difference.

[iandhr]

4. Thank you.

I don't get all the focus on Iran.

Iran WANTS nukes. North Korea HAS nukes.

[iandhr]

5. This explains the stealth bombing exercises...

... with the South Korean Air Force.

[AtheistCrusader]

6. I initially took his sabre rattling as 'look, see, i'm like dad' so his advisors didn't end him.

Now I'm not so sure.

Now I just hope we don't get sucked in, or engaged in it if not absolutely necessary. We are essentially standing between two parties in the midst of a civil war, even if it has gone 'cold'. That didn't go well for us in Iraq, post-invasion. It didn't go well for us in Vietnam...


The only thing we learn... Etc

[Malik Agar]

8. Doompaul time...

[AtheistCrusader]

11. Good god what the hell is that

[24601]

47. Isn't Paul the one who says essentially that any sovereign nation has the right to nukes? Obama

is the one who says all options are on the table.

[Malik Agar]

50. Yeah. It's just a meme though.

[24601]

52. I've never been sure with Paul was just some BS concepts he spewed to rile things up

He railed against spending while ensuring his pork was in the bills he voted against after their passage was assured. He blabbed about libertarian values but then applied them to nations - while an unconstrained state is the antithesis of personal freedoms.

We are well-served by the fact he no longer gets a vote in Congress. And I doubt his son is even one-degree more sane.

[presscac]

10. We knew about Dad, we were unsure about the kid

Will he start a war?
Will his policies throw the world into a catastrophic economic tailspin?
I wonder if he has a brother, Jeb Jong-un ? ? ?

[Dawson Leery]

12. The old man was a talker, is his son just that or something more?

Hagel's job is to be concerned.

[idwiyo]

13. Oh FFS, give them a load of the DVDs or whatever the fuck they want this time (glasses? iPad?)

And stop the fuck trying to scare the public. Yes, I TOTALLY believe NK Dear Leader is fucking suicidal and going to order nuclear attack on US or SouthKorea. And Saddam Hussein had WMDs.

[angstlessk]

18. They WANT America to invade them...cause we will build their infrastructure...

....and hell, I think America wants America to invade them for the same reason..build our infrastructure

[pnwmom]

19. I'm glad we have Hagel in that spot. I shudder to think who Romney might have in there. n/t

[TwilightGardener]

24. John Bolton! Get ready for some fireworks! Seriously, though, I'm glad the

Pentagon changed hands--I never saw Panetta as being terribly knowledgeable about foreign policy or defense. He was a nice guy, and probably a good manager, but he was too willing to jump on stupid stuff like our DoD arming the Syrian rebels. He also predicted utter catastrophe with sequestration, whereas Hagel kinds of shrugs it off as just a problem to overcome.

[secondvariety]

21. What is

North Korea's problem? What exactly do they want-money, food, new shoes? I don't get it.

[John2]

23. Maybe he is telling the

truth and tired of the U.S. leading sanctions on them. Listening to all the voices on here, many of you ridicule their Armed forces. People are playing their cards, neither China or Russia would step in. Both has already warned the West about a War in Iran. I don't think China wants the U.S. military on their Borders. Both see it important to their National Security. And from what I have read both China and Russia trade arms with North Korea. North Korea has also traded military technolgy with Pakistan and Iran. There was an article Iran shared stealth technology from a captured U.S. Drone with China and Russia. Both countries are in the process of producing the own Stealth Bombers. What is strange on this is the silence of the South Korean government because most of the saber rattling is led by the U.S. Knowing the South Korean terrain and crowded areas of population, a first strike by the North Korean Air force will cause devastating casualties. It is not Saddam's Air Force. There are 30,000 U.S. Troops im South Korea and a large South Korean Army. The problem with that though, the South Korean army has not been tested in a War like the North Korean military. U.S. commanders are actually in charge if it comes to War. People may regret it if it does come to a War.

[GreenStormCloud]

34. The NK Air Force is pathetic.

Saddam had a far better Air Force. The NK AF is composed mostly of MiG-15s, (Korean War vintage) MiG 17s, and MiG 21s (Vietnam era) and a small handful of modern fighters. Their bombers were designed in 1948.

Their pilots barely get enough flight time to be able to land and take off. NK doesn't have the money to be able to give their pilots enough flight time to practice and be proficient air warriors.

Incompetent pilots flying antiquated planes is what NK has for an Air Force.

The SK Air Force has much more modern planes, well trained pilots, and they are on 24/7/365 alert and can be in the air in minutes.

The NK Army hasn't fought anywhere in 60 years. The SK Army did sent a couple of divisions to help in Vietnam. The SK Army is well motivated because they know they will be fighting for their own families and homes. The can see what the Kims have done to NK and know that he wants to do the same thing to them.

The SK Army is built along the lines of the U.S. Army and is well equipped and trained. Far better trained than the NK Army. It takes money to train an Army and NK has very little of that while SK has a lot of money.

[Purveyor]

36. The wiki on NK military for reference:

Military strategy is designed for insertion of agents and sabotage behind enemy lines in wartime,[26] with much of the KPA's forces deployed along the heavily fortified Korean Demilitarized Zone. The Korean People's Army operates a very large amount of equipment, including 4,060 tanks, 2,500 APCs, 17,900 artillery pieces, 11,000 air defense guns and some 10,000 MANPADS and anti-tank guided missiles[152] in the Ground force; at least 915 vessels in the Navy and 1,748 aircraft in the Air Force,[153] of which 478 are fighters and 180 are bombers.[154] North Korea also has the largest special forces in the world, as well as the largest submarine fleet.[155] The equipment is a mixture of World War II vintage vehicles and small arms, widely proliferated Cold War technology, and more modern Soviet or locally produced weapons. In line with its asymmetric warfare strategy, North Korea has also developed a wide range of unconventional techniques and equipment, such as GPS jammers,[156] stealth paint,[157] midget submarines and human torpedoes,[158] a vast array of chemical and biological weapons,[159] and anti-personnel lasers.[160] According to official North Korean media, military expenditures for 2010 amount to 15.8% of the state budget.[161]

North Korea has active nuclear and ballistic missile weapons programs and has been subject to United Nations Security Council resolutions 1695 of July 2006, 1718 of October 2006, and 1874 of June 2009, for carrying out both missile and nuclear tests. North Korea probably has fissile material for up to nine nuclear weapons,[162] and has the capability to deploy nuclear warheads on intermediate-range ballistic missiles.[163] The launch of a North Korean satellite in December 2012 was seen as a weapons development step by South Korea and its allies[164] and condemned by the UN Security Council.[165]

Weapons Manufacturing

In North Korea, weapons are manufactured in roughly 180 underground defense industry plants in Jagang-do. The plants are responsible for producing; 200,000 Kalashnikov rifles annually, 3,000 heavy guns, 200 battle tanks, 400 armored cars and amphibious crafts in addition to several other weapons.[166]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea#Military

[GreenStormCloud]

37. The Wiki on NK Air Force:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People's_Air_Force

...nearly all of North Korea's aircraft inventory consists of aging and obsolete Soviet and Chinese aircraft, ...

...Pilots' food rations in 2000 consisted of about 850 Calories per day. This is increased to 950 Calories during periods of flight training. On national holidays pilots also receive special rations, including buckwheat and beef. ...

The number of annual flying hours (AFH) per pilot is, like almost every other aspect of the KPAF, very hard to estimate. Most sources on the subject abstain from giving hard numbers, but all of them estimate the average annual flying hours per pilot as being 'low' to 'very low'. The number of annual flying hours is of course very important in estimating the individual skill and experience of the pilots of an air force and the general rule of thumb is 'the more the merrier'. Most estimates present a rather grim picture: AFH per pilot for the KPAF are said to be only 15 or 25[4] hours per pilot each year - comparable to the flying hours of air forces in ex-Soviet countries in the early 1990s. In comparison, most NATO fighter pilots fly at least 150 hours a year. Ground training, both in classrooms, on instructional airframes or in a flight simulator can only substitute for 'the real thing' to a certain degree, and the low number of modern jet trainers in the KPAF arsenal points to a very modest amount of flying time for the formation of new pilots.

There are a number of possible explanations for the low AFH: concern over the aging of equipment, scarcity of spare parts - especially for the older aircraft - difficulties with worn airframes, fear of defection and the scarcity of fuel are all contributing factors. It is very likely however that some 'elite' pilots and regiments receive considerably more flying hours. Especially those equipped with modern aircraft and tasked with homeland defence - like the 57th regiment flying MiG-29s and the 60th regiment flying MiG-23s - are receiving multiple times the average AFH per pilot; however, aging equipment, the scarcity of fuel and the general economic crisis in the DPRK will affect these regiments as well, and keep their AFH low compared to NATO AFH.

Very old, worn-out, obsolete planes, and poorly trained pilots, who are half-starved does not make for an effective fighting air force. They will be little more than targets for the South Korean pilots and U.S pilots.

[Purveyor]

38. The 'air force' really isn't the big concern, it is the artillery aimed at SK that can be fired at a

moments notice.

Also I didn't realize that NK had THAT many subs albeit old and outdate. Still they can be a distraction not unlike a pesky gnat.

[GreenStormCloud]

41. Their artillery is the big problem.

Seoul is within artillery range of NK. They have lots of guns pointed at Seoul.

[Heywood J]

45. "200,000 Kalashnikov rifles"

Dropped once, never fired? Considering the average North Korean soldier barely eats, I wonder what his reaction would be to seeing Seoul for the first time and how the South Koreans have been living outside the thumb of the Kim family. How many of those "inserted agents" would actually become defectors?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-06-27/n-korean-children-begging-army-starving/2772472

It is clear that the all-powerful army - once quarantined from food shortages and famine - is starting to go hungry.

"Everybody is weak," says one young North Korean soldier."Within my troop of 100 comrades, half of them are malnourished," he said.

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2013/03/22/2013032200809.html

Twelve armed North Korean soldiers apparently defected across the border to China’s Jilin Province earlier this month but were captured by Chinese troops and sent back to the North.

Late last month, two North Korean soldiers shot and killed their senior officer and fled to Jilin Province, prompting experts to suspect something unusual is going on in army units stationed along the border with China.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/8759125/Half-of-North-Koreas-army-starving.html

The soldier indicated that each potato is only the size of his thumb.

"The shortage of food is not only in this unit," he said. "Food shortages and malnutrition are rampant among all troops."
<...>
One officer charged with regional security for the government said that their rations for one meal weighted 100 grams, or just 3.5 ounces.

http://www.dw.de/dissidents-reveal-famine-in-homeland/a-16586059

Experts say that the leaders of the regime are quite indifferent to the suffering of the people.

"Ever since Kim Jong Un assumed the position of supreme leader, the North Korean media and visiting foreigners are only talking about 'the beautifully developing Pyongyang,'" Jiro Ishimaru, who heads the Osaka office of the journalistic organization Asiapress, told DW. "But in the shadows of the 'gorgeous' capital, a 'hidden famine' has broken out."
<...>
"In my village people were dying left and right every day. There would be deaths at six families one day, then at five families the following day," a survivor told the reporters. "One family was completely wiped out - everyone died of starvation - while at another family, they gave up hope of living, and they all killed themselves."

That link has some more gruesome allegations.

http://stream.aljazeera.com/story/famine-in-north-korea

In the past few years, North Korea has been hit by floods, droughts, and other natural disasters that have worsened the already fragile food supply. Long-standing political mismanagement has led to depleted food stores, a stagnant economy, and other woes. State-sponsored food rations are down to a 300-calorie serving of rice per day, according to some reports.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9854435/Famine-gripped-North-Korea-during-Kim-Il-sung-anniversary.html

It cited examples of farmers and labourers in the region, in the southwest of the country, saying that "about a tenth" of a work brigade of 60 people in one village had died. Another case cited said that the death rate had been "30 people out of every 1,000. They say this is 30 times as high as a normal year."

Meanwhile...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/9849085/North-Koreas-Kim-Jong-un-and-the-mystery-smartphone.html

The photo released by the North's state media showed Kim presiding over a meeting with top national security advisers last week - a meeting believed to have been focused on Pyongyang's threat to conduct an imminent nuclear test.

It also showed a black smartphone on the table next to Kim's arm - as well as a lit cigarette in his hand.

"It's believed that the smartphone belonged to Kim given that the device was placed right next to the documents he was looking at," a Seoul government official told news agency Agence France-Presse.
<...>
The Seoul government official said the picture had been analysed by the South's intelligence agency, which concluded that HTC was the likely manufacturer.

http://www.npr.org/2012/12/10/166760055/hunger-still-haunts-north-korea-citizens-say

The news agency equated the supplies of fresh fish with Kim Jong Il's "deep concern" for the people. This might explain recent features on gleaming new supermarkets stocked with the latest goods, and an inspection trip by the new leader, Kim's 20-something son, Kim Jong Un, to a fancy new meat shop, accompanied by top army commanders.
<...>
A life marked by persistent, unending hunger is reflected in the bodies of North Korea's people. In April this year, the North Korean military lowered its minimum height requirement to 4 feet 7 inches, just slightly taller than the average South Korean fourth-grade student.

The U.N. report found that in Ryanggang province, where the situation is worst, almost half of the children are stunted from malnutrition. Even in the showcase capital, home to the elite, one in five kids is stunted.
<...>
"Before I left," recalls Mrs. Kim, "I thought North Korea was the best country in the world. After I came out, I saw this was not true. I was ashamed because it's so poor."

Option A:

• Beg and steal gruel in the streets, amid recurring country-wide famines
• Starve on rations of <1000 calories a day, even if you are "charged with regional security for the government"
• Commit familial suicide rather than die of hunger
• Become the next unconfirmed report of cannibalism
• See well-fed inner Party members using their smartphones while you never grow taller than "an average South Korean fourth-grade student"
• Hear of Kim Jong Fuckwit shopping for fancy meat in gleaming supermarkets

Option B:

• Fly your MIG to the first friendly-seeming country and turn it over
• Claim refugee status
OR:
• Confirm that your WWII-era Soviet tank is inedible
• Use your Kalashnikov to shoot your North Korean Army CO
• Attempt to escape to China, Russia, or South Korea with your fellow troops

Option C:

• Get ordered to invade South Korea
• Drop your rifle and surrender on seeing the glittering lights of Seoul
• Eat better than you have ever known in a POW camp that's likely more luxurious than your former barracks
• Read about and (using that magical talking box of which you may have heard) see all the things of which you have been deprived while the Kim family played hereditary rulers of the "People's Republic"
• Reconnect with long-lost family members from whom you have not heard since the 1950s, or who succeeded after choosing Option B

Tough call!

[blm]

22. This kid is even crazier than his old man, just like our dictatortot GWB. Kim W Jong-un?

.

[MrSlayer]

27. Send Jimmy Carter.

Last edited Fri Mar 29, 2013, 06:59 AM - Edit history (1)

The old boy can still take the measure of a man and there's no one better at diplomacy and foreign affairs.

[Comrade_McKenzie]

29. He had the best national security adviser of any modern presidency. nt

[Comrade_McKenzie]

28. We wasted 10 years dealing with a country that was no threat...

While all of our diplomatic capital should've been invested in North Korea and Iran.

[Thor_MN]

32. No big deal

We have the systems that the Dumbya spent all that money on, right? They fire their their rocket, we intercept it over the Pacific with our rockets, right? We have an operational base in Alaska that can knock any North Korean missile out of the sky, right? Not a thing to worry about, right?

[idwiyo]

33. NK doesn't have a working nuke or delivery system. Every damn serious scientist agrees with that.

The "nuke" tests were duds. Just because you can blow something underground doesn't mean anything. About the only people who disagree are the same ones who supplied "intelligence" for WMDs, yellow cake and Saddam is responsible for 9/11.

Just do a Google search on NK and nukes or even read a wiki article. It's not that bad.

If still I doubt, think! Do you REALLY believe that NK Dear Leader & Co are suicidal? Do you really think they are THAT naive to think they can possibly survive retaliation? Do you really think China and Russia would allow NK to have a nuke war with SK next to THEIR borders? I mean, let's get serious.

Relax, it's nothing new. NK, US and SK are engaging in their annual "who can make a more ridiculous claim to their respective populations AND make them believe it" contest.

[GreenStormCloud]

35. The danger is from a miscaculation leading to a spiral.

NK has recently sunk an SK warship and fired artillery at an SK island. That lead to a new, hard-line president in SK. The new prez had promised to retaliate to any more NK shooting.

All it will take is for Kim Jung-Fatty to think he can get away with some military act of war, SK prez shoots back and the spiral is running.

[TwilightGardener]

42. That's pretty much it. This fat kid's father and grandfather got away with military strikes

in the past, with no serious retaliation, so almost certainly this kid (and his military commanders) will want to try it with the new SK President. I guess for street cred and demands to lift the sanctions, etc.--it's worked for them before, why not now? And it hasn't hampered their nuke program, that's their ace in the hole. I think perhaps we ignored them and played along for too long. But SK is not going to stand for it any more, and we are apparently backing them up on it--and also telling China and Russia to get their little crazy dog under control, because we're sick of this shit.

[defacto7]

43. Don't undersetimate the illogic of megalomania.

They weren't duds. There is nothing that can cause earthquakes of that magnitude and resonance but 4 to 7 megaton blasts. This was reported by South Korea and Japan, not the US. But making a nuclear explosion happen and being able to contain it in a "box" are 2 different things, let alone be able to deliver it somewhere. That likelihood is pretty dim. There is no doubt though that they could deliver a whole lot of nuclear material and disperse it over a large area.

I think the biggest threat is simply the margin of error in communication, inexperience of a dictator and the general tensions that magnify them.

[idwiyo]

44. You explained it better than I did, RE: what they have vs what they can do with it.

To me "duds" was clear, I can see how it could be confusing to someone else. I blame ESL

I do understand your second point and totally agree with it. I still believe its nothing but posturing for the benefit of respective populations in home countries and behind they are talking. This BS benefits both sides by scaring people and distracting them from stuff that really matters, like state of economy. And if they can get more money to finance some bogus defence system or such... Now is the time!

[Heywood J]

46. "but 4 to 7 megaton blasts"

"but 4 to 7 megakiloton blasts"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9865136/Graphic-North-Korea-successfully-tests-7-kiloton-nuclear-device.html

4-7 kilotons looks like this:



4-7 megatons looks like this:


No worries

[defacto7]

49. Ha...

Too much "duck and cover" here!

[Sunlei]

48. Tell China and SK to deal with them and make a public statement. They are to quiet about this.

[GP6971]

51. Previously

one would get concerned only when the State Dept. ordered non-essential personal to leave and the Dept. of Defense ordered the evacuation of dependents. That's what I told my family when I and my son were stationed there.....many years apart by the way.

Today, I'm not so sure. The situation today is really crazy......two untried leaders doesn't help. And I'm going to Seoul at the end of April for business....we may have to rethink this.