Syrian government says civil war has reached stalemate

[Bosonic]

Source: The Guardian

The Syrian civil war has reached a stalemate and President Bashar al-Assad's government will call for a ceasefire at a long-delayed conference in Geneva on the state's future, the country's deputy prime minister has said in an interview with the Guardian.

Speaking on behalf of the government, Qadri Jamil said that neither side was strong enough to win the conflict, which has lasted two years and caused the death of more than 100,000 people. Jamil, who is in charge of country's finances, also said that the Syrian economy had suffered catastrophic losses.

"Neither the armed opposition nor the regime is capable of defeating the other side," he said. "This zero balance of forces will not change for a while."

Meanwhile, he said, the Syrian economy had lost about $100bn (£62bn), equivalent to two years of normal production, during the war.

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/19/syrian-government-civil-war-stalemate

[Spitfire of ATJ]

1. Assad just admited he's lost the effort to put down the rebels.

[karynnj]

2. you wonder how much support he lost internally with the UN report

It may have been a step too far.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

3. Notice all of the defections are only going one way?

[David__77]

5. I don't think that the government supporters care about that.

Throughout the conflict, the core of the government supporters have rather complained that the army is not cracking down hard enough. The portion of the population that opposes the insurgency is either disillusioned with both sides, or firmly entrenched on the side of the government.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

7. There's also the portion of the population that just goes to work and doesn't care....

The gas attack stirred up the "I don't take sides" group.

[karynnj]

10. Very good way to define them

[Spitfire of ATJ]

15. It always surprises Americans to find other countries have "stuff" too....

Americans act like people in the Middle East live in tents or mud huts and ride camels. They can't wrap their heads around the idea that they have a house with a living room and a TV and a car in the garage that they bought new from a local dealership and they're still making payments on all of it through a job. Plus they have computers and smart phones and know things could be better.

[karynnj]

18. What amazes me is that this is true even for countries, like Norway,

where the standard of living is better for most people than here. We had a Norwegian au pair back in 1991 who was asked - very seriously - by neighbors of us if Norway had television and running water!

[Spitfire of ATJ]

20. Really? Were they expecting a Norwegian to call their pool a "cement pond"?

[Comrade Grumpy]

11. Do you have any evidence of that?

[Spitfire of ATJ]

14. In the midst of a revolution there are still people going to their normal job....

Look at Italy. During the 20th Century they went through 75 different governments.

In Syria the shops and restaurants are still open for business, factories are still going, truck drivers are still delivering,..etc.

[Comrade Grumpy]

17. Yeah, I get that. I mean evidence that the gas attacks have bestirred the apolitical?

[Spitfire of ATJ]

19. Dictators count on the apathy of the masses...

The best thing living under that system is to not care. To be an innocent.

When you see the innocent die it makes your main defense useless.

[Comrade Grumpy]

22. So the answer to my question is "no." Okay.

By the way, I think all governments count on the apathy of the masses. Although that's perhaps pejorative. For many, many people, all over the world, politics is distant from their daily lives, something they see on the evening news, at most.

At the beginning of this revolt, I recall reading that about a third of Syrians supported Assad, about a third wanted to overthrow him, and about a third wanted reforms but not at the price of civil war.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

23. Bet those who supported him only did because they thought that meant peace.

[Comrade Grumpy]

24. You really should educate yourself about Syria.

There are numerous ethnic minorities that strongly support the Assad government because they fear repression, exile, or genocide from a Sunni-dominated government.

Some fraction of secular Sunnis also support the Assad government because they fear Islamic crazies. With some reason.

And then there are those who support the regime for more immediately self-interested reasons: they're benefiting from it. People in the armed forces, people who have economic privilege under the regime, people employed by the government (including all those bureaucrats who have nothing to do with the war).

But, as is true everywhere, many, many people probably just want to get on with their lives in peace.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

25. Not everything there is about religion....

As a matter of fact, there are a lot of young people there who see religion as a real problem.

[karynnj]

9. It is conjecture either way

I think it is possible that there are some people - normally aligned with the government that could well have been horrified that people in the suburbs of Damascus were gassed. It is possible that that might even know people from the area affected. (I doubt there is as much mobility of people as there is in - say - the NYC suburbs, but I would think it unlikely they have no contact.)

This does not mean that they join a radical rebel group - just that they are now not supportive of Assad remaining.

[David__77]

4. The Syrian government has long said there is no military solution.

That is why they have unconditionally agreed to political talks with the opposition, and did so long ago.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

6. Which "opposition"? There are many, including vultures.

[David__77]

8. Well, that is not clear.

And that is troubling. But it's a moot point until some group stands up (other than NCC/NCB) and says "we're the opposition and we want to negotiate!" I assume that would have to include the Turkey-based opposition.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

13. They need someone more interested in power grids than power grabs.

[Comrade Grumpy]

12. Interesting move. How will the opposition (whoever that is) respond?

I suspect many segments of the opposition will flat-out refuse to hold any talks. They want Assad's head on a pike, and nothing less will satisfy them.

This could fracture the opposition even more than it already is.

[freshwest]

16. With a thousand dying a week, there was no peace to give a chance. Now they may work it out.

I wonder how much of the country saw nothing and were content with that state of affairs?

Too many lost everything.

It may erupt again later, but the article seems to say it's unlikely.

That would be good.

[Sunlei]

21. call for ceasefire at conference in Geneva, how about TODAY?

And move the Assad family back home so the world knows you mean it!

[olddad56]

26. why is a civil war and not a revolutionary war?