One Big Trader Lost Millions Betting on Romney, Study Finds

[brooklynite]

Source: Wall Street Journal

A new academic paper digging into presidential betting in the final weeks of the 2012 election finds that a single trader lost between $4 million and $7 million placing a flurry of Intrade bets on Mitt Romney—perhaps to make the Republican nominee’s chance of victory appear brighter.

Two economists who studied the data offer various rationales for the trader’s aggressive wagering on Mr. Romney in the final two weeks of the campaign. The anonymous trader placed 1.2 million pro-Romney contracts, some of which were actually in the form of bets against a Barack Obama victory.

The most plausible reason for the betting, the authors conclude, is that “this trader could have been attempting to manipulate beliefs about the odds of victory in an attempt to boost fundraising, campaign morale, and turnout.”

The economists, Rajiv Sethi, of Barnard College and Columbia University, and David Rothschild, of Microsoft Research, also analyze the possibility that the trader, who accounted for a third of all the money wagered on Mr. Romney in the last two weeks, could have placed his bets either to hedge on wagers in other markets or simply because he thought the price was good.

Read more: http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/09/23/one-big-trader-lost-millions-betting-on-romney-study-finds/

---

Sounds like he was a bad a businessman as Romney was...

[srican69]

1. Romney might have been a terrible politician and a heartless capitalist .. but he was

was a good businessman from an ROI standpoint .. anyone who beats the S&P on a risk adjusted basis ( fairly or unfairly is besides the point) will be considered a good business manager .. i know all of us hate the romneybot - but let it not cloud our judgment.

[brooklynite]

4. He was perhaps a good businessman at business...but he was terrible at the business of politics

Consider his personnel choices...

...his capital investments (holding back on advertising until late in the game when the prices went up)

...his research and development (buying into "unskewed polls"0

[laserhaas]

19. Ahem! TAP, Tap, tap -- I take issue with the "good businessman" inference.

Mitt Romney is a RACKETEER

And I can prove it.

Just look at my threads.

Justice is coming!

[Left Coast2020]

62. What about a greedy selfish bastard?

Business involves building relationships--not trying to see who you can screw next.

Hense, the "47-percent" who are not interested in his character or business ethics.

[bhikkhu]

10. More a dice roller than a businessman, looking at the record

from Wikipedia: "One study of 68 deals that Bain Capital made up through the 1990s found that the firm lost money or broke even on 33 of them. Another study that looked at the eight-year period following 77 deals during the same time found that in 17 cases the company went bankrupt or out of business, and in 6 cases Bain Capital lost all its investment. But 10 deals were very successful and represented 70 percent of the total profits."

They did wind up making a lot of money (mostly with other people's money), but he left more wreckage in his wake than anything else, even if he was clever enough to insulate himself and his investors from much of it. Rolling the dice if fine until you lose, or if you've rigged the game to your advantage. I don't see anything there that defines "good businessman" to me.

[JDPriestly]

56. Yes. And that is why the first person I would suspect of having made these foolish trades is:

trumpet fanfare, please -- Romney himself.

[Snake Plissken]

24. Romney is a bright individual who believe greed driven exploitation is moral and honorable

Some people look at how they can create something, some people look at how they can help others, some people look at how the can leave this planet better than how they found it, Romney looks for a loophole to exploit.

Romney is a classic parasite, he creates nothing. Romeny makes his money off of other's hard work and accomplishments. At the end of the day he takes more than he gives and the sad part about he doesn't even realize he's one of the 'takers' he was complaining about.

[Botany]

35. Romney did not make money on investments but on using borrowed money ...

.... to "buy" businesses and then fire the workers, sell off the assists, load that business
up with debt, and if that business still made a product for which their was a market he
would outsource the production to China or some other country.

He made his money fucking people and the country.

[exboyfil]

38. And he got his start in this game

by being one of the annointed (son of famous businessman/politician).

For being such a star studded businessman, he ran an atrocious campaign. Like I said before, he must be warmed to know that his Orca project will be used as a case study of how not to implement IT in business schools for years to come.

[Downtown Hound]

45. If you mean "good businessman" as in...

making your fortune by putting millions of Americans out of work and shipping their jobs overseas to slave labor, and then breaking up companies and selling them off to earn profit, then yes he was a "good businessman."

If you mean "good businessman" in that he was an innovative inventor who created things people want to buy and marketed them well, then no, he absolutely sucked at that. He never created anything and only made his money by destroying and rigging the game.

I'm tired of seeing assholes who do nothing but destroy labeled as "good businessmen." It doesn't take a whole lot of genius to do what Romney did. It just takes having no soul and to be born in a position of privilege to be at the top to make those kind of decisions that affect million below them.

[caseymoz]

54. No, that makes him a good reptile.

Businessmen produce something or trade money for something that benefits someone.

[BlueMTexpat]

66. He may have been successful at Bain Capital if his only goal was to make a profit.

for himself and his investors. Which is exactly what it seems to have been.

But he destroyed some businesses in the process and as a result put many on the unemployment rolls. So, if being a greedy, selfish, shrewd but heartless person is what "success" in business means, then yes, he can be considered a success.

This is a Wiki url (with all caveats necessary), but it's a good point of departure, at least for an overview. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bain_Capital

Warren Buffett presents a much different model. IMO, Buffet and those like him are true business successes because they consider the long-term holistic business environment rather than their own short-sighted short-term selfish advantages.

[DJ13]

2. So Ann had to sell a horse (or two) to pay her debt?

[Sunlei]

33. one horse they sold, they drugged to rip off the buyer 125k. buyer had to sue.

nothing but low-down horse traders, sold a medicated to hide lameness horse, for 125k. They pay the Vet bills, they know exactly what a horse is medicated with. even their horse insurance made note of the lameness.

Super Hit had Butorphanol, Delomidine, Romifidine, and Xylatine in its system at the time of his sale, according to court documents. Testified an expert: “In my 38 years of practice, I have never come across a drug screen such as this where the horse has been administered so many different medications at the same time.”


https://www.google.com/#q=romney+%22Super+Hit%22

[DJ13]

41. The Romney's are such fine, upstanding people

[Sunlei]

42. that poor horse probably went into mexicos 'cheap beef' meatbox, drugs and all :(

Thanks Romney!

[AnnieBW]

64. And made into IKEA Swedish Meatballs

[Sunlei]

65. :( I hope not. all those drugs are labeled not for use in animals intended for food.

[tofuandbeer]

48. Oh that Ann...

When newlyweds Ann and Mitt Romney were living together while attending Brigham Young, things were pretty swell. "We were happy, studying hard,” Romney said in an infamous Boston Globe interview back in 1994, when Mittens was running for the senate. “Neither one of us had a job, because Mitt had enough of an investment from stock that we could sell off a little at a time,” she explained.

How awesome is that?!? The stock came courtesy of Mitt's papa, who had invested Mitt’s “birthday money” every year. Ann looks back fondly on this time as a period when she and Mitt were really roughing it. For realz.

Link:
http://www.alternet.org/election-2012/5-most-ridiculously-offensive-quotes-ann-romney

The quotes there are great. Give them a read.

[xfundy]

3. Repigs constantly claim they are ahead in polls

because there is a natural human urge to follow the herd. Marketing data show it, polling data show it, if someone has no opinion, they will naturally lean toward whichever way the other sheep or lemmings tend to go in.

Those who proclaim science sinful sure do rely on it, especially in terms of group behaviour.

[tarheelsunc]

5. "Sounds like he was a bad a businessman as Romney was..."

Maybe it WAS Romney...

[leftynyc]

22. I'm thinking it was Trump

Donny doesn't like backing losers so he tried to game the system.

[Pab Sungenis]

32. Possibly

Although that wouldn't fit the "build confidence" motive. Romney honestly thought he was going to win and didn't even write a concession speech until after Karl Rove gave up.

[davidpdx]

6. A fool and his money will soon parted

Maybe it was someone that was going by Romney's internal polling. Wouldn't be funny.

[No Vested Interest]

9. Or.... There's a sucker born every minute.

And this was a very rich sucker.

[blkmusclmachine]

7. Was the trader ... Rmoney ???

[coldmountain]

8. 7 million is nothing to the "helicopter class"

it was proabably just another venue for advertising for Romney

[irisblue]

11. HA HA fool..eom

[struggle4progress]

12. ...

[Tab]

13. Dumbass

n/t

[Historic NY]

14. How about KKK Rove...he had and lost all that money with his Super Pac...

"The billionaire donors I hear are livid," one Republican operative told The Huffington Post. "There is some holy hell to pay. Karl Rove has a lot of explaining to do ... I don't know how you tell your donors that we spent $390 million and got nothing."

http://www.prwatch.org/news/2012/11/11854/biggest-loser-2012-election-karl-rove

[The Second Stone]

15. I wonder if it was Sheldon Adelson, the guy who owns the casinos

he was wasting an awful lot of money on candidates during the primaries.

[They_Live]

57. That was my first thought as well.

and I also keep thinking about the events going on around the world at the time of the campaign and how Mitt tried to capitalize on something that didn't work out the way he thought that it might. Then I wonder if that event had been intentionally planned for Mitt to use in his campaign.

[Cha]

16. Ohhhh..

Maybe he was mainlining rove on fox. Can you imagine his shock the night of the election11!!!!

[Doctor_J]

28. If so, we can hope hoe goes to Fox

and goes postal. A lot of the nation's problems would be helped.

[gopiscrap]

17. sounds slimey to me!

[diane in sf]

18. Maybe he thought KKKarl Rove was going to throw the election for Romney like he did for bush in '04.

And he was thwarted by Anonymous along with KKKarl. I'll never forget the election meltdown KKKarl had on Fox.

[exboyfil]

39. His denial reminded me of

Mortimer Duke of Trading Places,

"
President of Exchange: [Randolph Duke has just collapsed with shock] Mortimer, your brother is not well. We better call an ambulance.
Mortimer Duke: F*** him! Now, you listen to me! I want trading reopened right now. Get those brokers back in here! Turn those machines back on!
[shouts - it echoes pathetically throughout the trading hall]
Mortimer Duke: Turn those machines back on!

[laserhaas]

20. If someone other than I would tell the tale, we could end Pitten's biz career NOW.

Unfortunately, being a victim of Romney's organized crime spree is of little consequence. Everyone inherently turns a deaf ear when a victim speaks out. Mitt's team offered yours truly a bribe of $850,000 and a chance to become his partner and - Not only did I tell them to take their offer and shove it - I reported them to the Department of Justice.

The reason the DOJ didn't arrest Mitt Romney is his "retroactive" secret.

And no one will tell the tale.

No one will believe me.

It sucks SOOOOO MUCHHHH!

[laserhaas]

21. Here's a link to one recent thread - and ALL the PROOF is public court records/federal archives

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023713772

[muriel_volestrangler]

23. Or it was a way to guard against the likely economic damage Romney would have done

Historical data tends to show the US economy does worse under Republican presidents. So you need a way to make money out of a Republican president to make up for this - the most direct thing to do is bet on them to win.

[PuffedMica]

25. Drop in the bucket for the Koch brothers

They were just throwing a little 'walking around money' after their guy. What else could they do, they had already reached the campaign limit for direct donations.

[Snake Plissken]

26. A classic case of Obama Derangement Syndrome.

At least he didn't take his Obama Derangement Syndrome to this level

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2012/11/14/key-west-suicide-blamed-on-obamas-re-electon/

[liberal N proud]

27. My heart bleeds for those sorry stooges who supported Romney

[morningfog]

29. His name was Ritt Momney.

[laserhaas]

31. ha ha

[Jim Lane]

30. Remember the other half of the transactions.

All Intrade contracts had a buyer and a seller. If this big trader (i.e., bettor) dropped a few million, then that means a few million in profit for people betting on Obama (or against Romney).

The unnamed trader was implementing Obama's statement to Joe the Plumber about sharing the wealth. Money was flowing to people who supported Obama or who, if not supporting him, could at least read the writing on the wall.

[Sunlei]

34. oh I remember that intrade betting. was like the last week 2 people added millions? on romney to win

sore losers

[lastlib]

36. Good!

Elections have consequences. I'm always excited when stupid Repuglicans losing/wasting money is one of them.

[heaven05]

37. good!

I hope it hurt!!!! Badly!

[hughee99]

40. Anyone who thinks the intrade betting market has any affect on people's perception

of a presidential election deserve to lose $7 million dollars. I wonder how someone with so little common sense would come by $7 million in the first place.

I seriously doubt his intention was to try to sway any sort of public opinion on Rmoney's chances, perhaps he just liked the price and had that kind of money to piss away.

[Sunlei]

46. maybe someone gambled political warchest or pac funds millions & lost. donators must love that!

who was that 'big gambler' on stage that made the 10k off the cuff bet on national Tv?

[hughee99]

50. I have to think the FEC is going to wonder where the millions went

and if they present intrade "betting slips", that probably won't fly well either. Hell, it could be someone who stood to gain a great deal if Obama was elected and was putting some money on Rmoney (and getting odds) to hedge his bet. Without knowing the source, there's no way to tell.

[Sunlei]

52. I don't know. intrade place closed when huge 'romney to win' bet was placed 2 days?before election.

As I recall American banks didn't allow transaction bets about a week or more before the election? maybe it was foreign money transaction.

they still have legal troubles and explain on their website. here's their website link. http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

[KansDem]

43. Well, now! Looks like it's time for another bailout!

[font size="1"]Gibt mir das Geld! Gibt mir das Geld!...[font size="2"]

[BlueToTheBone]

44. A fool and his money

are soon parted. He must have truly believed that Rmoney could buy the election.

[ThomThom]

47. I think he probably figured romney was going to win

he thought the fix was in so he bet big

[Ash_F]

49. Proof that money can't cure stupid. /nt

[obamacarerules]

51. So sad, too bad!

Lol

[Gman]

53. That's not a lot of money

In a campaign where, from all sources we'll over a billion dollars was spent. I think they were manipulating InTrade.

[DallasNE]

55. You Bet Against Nate Silver At Your Own Risk

Right now Silver has the best model out there for forecasting the election. Successful voter suppression efforts will like skew results in the future as a lot of likely voters will end up not being allowed to vote.

[MythosMaster]

58. A rich guy manipulating markets and elections for there own benefit?

imagine that?

The free market is not free.

[Jack Rabbit]

59. Was it really Sean Hannity? Karl Rove? Dick Morris?

Just wondering.

[Agony]

60. gambler not trader...

[llmart]

61. Ah, time to quote W.C. Fields......

There's a sucker born every minute.

(I have no idea if that was W.C. fields or not, but it seemed appropriate for this story

[kelliekat44]

63. Would rather waste his money betting against Obama than invest his money and help the economy.

Sad.

[EC]

67. Maybe it was Romney/.. n/t