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mahatmakanejeeves

(56,890 posts)
Fri Feb 7, 2014, 09:31 AM Feb 2014

Payroll employment rises in January (+113,000); unemployment rate changes little (6.6%)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JANUARY 2014

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 113,000 in January, and the unemployment rate
was little changed at 6.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment grew in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining.
....

Household Survey Data

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.2 million, and the unemployment rate, at
6.6 percent, changed little in January. Since October, the jobless rate has decreased by
0.6 percentage point. (See table A-1.) (See the note and tables B and C for information
about the effect of annual population adjustments to the household survey estimates.)
....

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.6 million,
declined by 232,000 in January. These individuals accounted for 35.8 percent of the
unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 1.1 million over the year.
(See table A-12.)

After accounting for the annual adjustment to the population controls, the civilian labor
force rose by 499,000 in January, and the labor force participation rate edged up to 63.0
percent. Total employment, as measured by the household survey, increased by 616,000 over
the month, and the employment-population ratio increased by 0.2 percentage point to 58.8
percent. (See table A-1. For additional information about the effects of the population
adjustments, see table C.)

Read more: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm



Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome our friends from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

If you don't have the time to study the report thoroughly, here is the news in a nutshell:

Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jec.nr0.htm

An increase of 113,000 is much lower than the number I had heard discussed on the radio this morning, 185,000.

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers.

ADP, for employment in January 2014:

U.S. Economy Added 175,000 Private-Sector Jobs in January, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014719171

BLS, for employment in December 2013, which was wildly out of line with ADP's figure:

December unemployment rate declines (6.7%); payroll employment edges up (+74,000)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014693851

ADP, for employment in December 2013:

U.S. Economy Added 238,000 Private-Sector Jobs in December, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014691789

One more thing:

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

Well, enough of that. On with the show.

Monthly Employment Reports

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization. Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

From the February 10, 2011, DOL Newsletter:

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The household survey, or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The establishment survey, or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.


== == == ==

Live: U.S. Economy Adds 113,000 Jobs

8:04 am
Feb 7, 2014

Live From New York! It’s Jobs Friday!

The labor market in January registered weak gains for the second straight month, a slowdown that could heighten fears about the economic recovery and may lead some to call on the Fed. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6%.


—National Archives

Yes, it’s that time again, folks. It’s the first Friday of the month, when for one ever-so-brief moment the interests of Wall Street, Washington and Main Street are all aligned on one thing: Jobs.

The numbers are in: The U.S. labor market added 113,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate fell 6.6%. Expectations were for 189,000 new jobs to be created — up from 74,000 jobs added in December — with the unemployment rate falling to 6.6% from 6.7%.

Here at MoneyBeat HQ, we’ll be offering color commentary and tracking the markets before and after the data crosses the wires. Feel free to weigh-in yourself, via the comments section. And while you’re here, why don’t you sign up to follow us on Twitter.

Enjoy the show.



7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Payroll employment rises in January (+113,000); unemployment rate changes little (6.6%) (Original Post) mahatmakanejeeves Feb 2014 OP
Just got my NYT breaking... BumRushDaShow Feb 2014 #1
Will it be a sine wave? seveneyes Feb 2014 #2
Long Term Unemployemnet went down. 232,000 Stuart G Feb 2014 #3
Not Sure How To Read That Number DallasNE Feb 2014 #5
Delayed Reaction To Partial Government Shutdown DallasNE Feb 2014 #4
Ignore the Unemployment Rate mahatmakanejeeves Feb 2014 #6
Why so different rtracey Feb 2014 #7

Stuart G

(38,359 posts)
3. Long Term Unemployemnet went down. 232,000
Fri Feb 7, 2014, 10:48 AM
Feb 2014

"The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.6 million,
declined by 232,000 in January. These individuals accounted for 35.8 percent of the
unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 1.1 million over the year".

that quote is from the OP.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Now, some of those have given up. Let's say many, but, if half have gotten jobs somewhere..then that is very important.
Sure, it is slow, and awful, and many of those jobs are not what people want. (low paying, minimum wage) Perhaps there can be an increase in minimum wage to $11.00 to help..at least we can have hope..

DallasNE

(7,392 posts)
5. Not Sure How To Read That Number
Fri Feb 7, 2014, 11:04 AM
Feb 2014

Because these are the very people that lost unemployment benefits when the Republicans failed to extend unemployment benefits for those unemployed more than 26 weeks. It seems that this would have resulted in a lot of these people being transferred to the discouraged worker category. And in a softening job market it is a double whammy for these people.

DallasNE

(7,392 posts)
4. Delayed Reaction To Partial Government Shutdown
Fri Feb 7, 2014, 10:55 AM
Feb 2014

Plus the long term trend to government layoffs has started to pick up steam again with 36,000 government jobs lost in January.

In the last 12 months the unemployment rate has dropped 1.9%, which is pretty impressive. It will be hard to match that in 2014 as spending priorities continue to wrongly focus on debt reduction.

mahatmakanejeeves

(56,890 posts)
6. Ignore the Unemployment Rate
Fri Feb 7, 2014, 01:06 PM
Feb 2014
Ignore the Unemployment Rate

Life and Style

The most totemic statistic about the U.S. economy is archaic and misleading.
It's the statistic that always gets breathlessly invoked in arguments about the U.S. economy. But it's also archaic and misleading.

By Zachary Karabell

Today at 8:30 a.m., the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly employment report, as it does at the start of every month. As usual, the announcement was widely covered in the financial and mainstream media—a convenient hook for commentary about the state of the economy, the arc of the recovery and the future of the U.S.

The unemployment rate was a central factor in the 2012 presidential election, with President Barack Obama seemingly defying a powerful historical trend and winning re-election while the rate hovered at 8%. It was used to justify the nearly $800 billion stimulus bill in 2009. And the rate has remained in the spotlight through the early weeks of 2014, as the 1.3 million Americans receiving long-term unemployment benefits have become a source of political theater and ideological debate.

The unemployment rate, in short, is one of the most consequential numbers shaping our body politic. Unfortunately, it is also one of the most misleading.

It isn’t just that the number is a statistical artifact, involving substantial estimation and frequent adjustments. Nor is it because the unemployment report as a whole combines two rather different surveys—one of 557,000 businesses and their payrolls, another of 60,000 households—each of which sheds a different light on the jobs picture. ... The real problem is that the number, originally designed for limited purposes, has come to assume totemic status. Focusing so single-mindedly on this one employment figure has made it impossible to have a cogent discussion of labor in the U.S. and to design meaningful responses to our varied economic problems.
 

rtracey

(2,062 posts)
7. Why so different
Fri Feb 7, 2014, 10:33 PM
Feb 2014

Can someone please explain to me why so different in numbers? Example-December 238,000 jobs turned in 74,000. So what is it and why the big difference? Thanks

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