Libya parliament agrees to 'early' election amid public anger

[Capt. Obvious]

Source: Reuters

Libya's parliament will call elections "as early as possible", its president said on Monday, in an apparent effort to assuage ordinary Libyans angry over political chaos in the country nearly three years after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi.

The parliament, the General National Congress (GNC), is deadlocked between Islamists and nationalists, compounding a sense of chaos as Libya's fledgling army tries to assert itself against unruly ex-rebels, tribal groups and Islamist militants.

Many people in the OPEC oil-producing nation blame mainly the GNC infighting for a lack of progress in the transition towards democracy since the ousting of Gaddafi in 2011.

"The GNC announces... that elections will be held as early as possible," GNC President Nouri Abusahmain said in a televised speech marking the third anniversary of the start of the NATO-backed uprising against Gaddafi.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/17/us-libya-elections-idUSBREA1G0RA20140217

[pampango]

1. From Juan Cole:

From my August 31, 2011 post:

“Libya is a patchwork of tribal and regional affiliations, underpinning the social, political and economic foundation of the country. Given the number of casualties on both sides in the past six months, Libya faces a real possibility of descending into chaos, especially now the unifying slogan of bringing down Gaddafi is no longer viable. Libya has to follow the example of other countries and have an amnesty for former officials and supporters of the regime.”

More than two years later, and as the news of the last few months of chaos show categorically, Libya seems to, unfortunately, descend into that very fragmentations I feared then, and is reverting back, in the absence of the brute force of the Gaddafi regime, into a patchwork of tribal and regional affiliations, and even criminal networks of arms, drugs, and human trafficking gangs.

The first mistake, was the reluctance of the international community, and refusal of Libya’s rag tag army of rebels — mainly in the service of their self interest to be the only power on the ground — to plan and implement a comprehensive Disarmament, Demobilisation, and Reintegration (DDR) strategy, that would have allowed the presence of international troops on the ground to maintain law and order after the fall of the Gaddafi regime and actively work on disarming and reintegrating the armed groups that fought against him. This was a direct byproduct of the refusal to admit and recognise that the Libya conflict of 2011 was indeed a civil war between Libyans with differing political agendas. It is now obvious to most however, that without security and law and order, it is practically impossible to reach any sort of consensus or agreement between the various segments of society. The armed groups will always be able to force their will, on those who are unarmed.

Libya today in my opinion is in no position to solve its current crises on its own without outside impartial help. Trust has broken down between regions, groups, political parties, and the government and its citizens, and no leadership seems to emerge that can provide that impartiality and credibility that is now a must. Libya needs international help again on both the security and political front, and this help needs to be international and under the UN, rather than bilateral with different countries separately. Allowing some segments of the population to own and use arms, while others are without weapons, will only produce an unsustainable political reality that will be dominated by the interests of certain groups at the expense of others.

http://www.juancole.com/2013/12/national-reconciliation-resolve.html

[dipsydoodle]

2. without outside impartial help.....

from the USA presumably.

[pampango]

3. He clearly said - from the UN. If you wish to mock that, please proceed.

The UN has peacekeeping forces in many countries. I don't see it happening in Libya, but the author is entitled to an opinion.

[dipsydoodle]

5. Do you really believe the US won't interfere

and attempt to control the situation with regard to such an issue ?

Current issues with regard to Russia and China making it perfectly clear they will veto any UN resolution on Syria have their roots in the bent resolution with ambiguous wording on Libya.

[pampango]

6. It does not interfere in other UN peacekeeping operations.

Current issues with regard to Russia and China making it perfectly clear they will veto any UN resolution on Syria have their roots in the bent resolution with ambiguous wording on Libya.

This OP is about Libya - its civil strife and lack of progress towards democracy. The post from Juan Cole is similarly about what is happening in Libya, not Syria.

Russia and China are perfectly free to veto any UN peacekeeping force anywhere in the world. They rarely do that (there are currently UN peacekeeping missions in 15 countries) but they might in Libya, I agree, although they may see continued civil strife in Libya as not advancing anyone's agenda.

Both Russia and China had the opportunity to block UN involvement in Libya and did not - a "mistake" they have learned from and are applying to Syria. I do not see how vetoing a UN peacekeeping force to Libya would advance Russia's or China's interests or affect Syria since no UN-sanctioned intervention is going to happen there. (Unless there is a 'winner-take-all' victory for one side or the other in Syria, there will be a negotiated settlement. They will probably need some kind force on the ground to enforce the terms of the settlement. I am not sure who would be called upon or trusted to do that other than the UN. But that is a different story and not the point of the OP.)

That said, IMHO the idea of putting a UN peacekeeping force in Libya is a figment of the author's imagination. I have read nothing like this suggested anywhere else. The West seems to want to forget about Libya, let them muddle through (or not) on their own, so they can move on to other things. Libya is yesterday's news to most Western politicians and governments.

[cosmicone]

4. Libya was a stupid clusterfuck anyway

We should never have supported the "rebels" who will impose sharia law and create unending jihad to keep people riled up. Libya will be another Afghanistan.

Fortunately, it is close to the coast so our carrier groups can keep Al Q'aeda ambitions to negligible but the religious government will spell hell on the people of Libya.

[pampango]

7. Juan Cole: Three Years Later: Can the Libyan Revolution Succeed?

Can Libya be a nation whose citizens enjoy freedom and security? The quandary made itself all too clear when we tried to hold a news conference in a hotel in Tripoli in late January.

In that room, we and those who joined us, including representatives of several disenfranchised minorities, could speak as critically of the government’s shortcomings as we wished. There was no comparison with our fear and caution back in Muammar Gaddafi’s time in 2009, when we did the same thing.

Two and a half years since NATO’s UN-authorized intervention, Libya is teetering on the brink of failure. The still-transitional government has at best nominal control in much of the country, including the capital, but has been unable to disarm dozens of armed groups. Some provide essential security at the government’s behest, while others terrorize, kidnap and murder civilians and government officials with total impunity.

To start, the Justice Ministry can move more decisively to either charge or release the approximately 5,000 detainees held in 41 prisons often under the nominal – but not real – authority of the Judicial Police. It should also urgently document how many detainees are under militia control – a number that shockingly, no one seems to know – and move them to the jurisdiction of the government.

http://www.juancole.com/2014/02/libyan-revolution-succeed.html